Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,695

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Re: the above...The 13th-20th would be ideal in terms of both storm track and temps. THAT is how a HB block should work. One thing which is showing up on some model runs today(and has to be watched) is AN heights sneaking back into Alaska. The CFSv2 has done pretty well this winter at 500mb, and that is only one run(sign the waiver). It will bounce around some, but it is nice to see a run which reflects its slow moving MJO. Speaking of slow moving, IF the MJO gets into 8...it might not be in a hurry. I think the saving grace this winter will be the eventual return of the NAO later in January. And nah, this place never shuts down. LOL. I will get out and enjoy the weather before it gets cold again. Many people up here are having to fix pipes. We need the warmth to get things fixed. I talked to the check-out lady at Home Depot today. She said it was slammed on Monday w/ the majority of sales being plumbing. I had some relatives w/ a pipe break. A lot of people lost water on Saturday and w/ stores closed on Sunday...had to sit for 48 hours with no water. So yes, we are good w/ a warm-up for once!
  2. Carvers Gap
    Mega path-out-of-the-eastern ridge post. Both the 18z GEFS and CFSv2 showed either some noise in today's trends or are tending back. 50/50 as to what. I looked at the MJO to see why the LR had gone to crap today. See the loop....That is the pause or the kick-the-can which we saw today. The GEFS below: But the CFSv2 has this, and I have been waiting for its own model output to reflect the progression below: And here is the 18z 7day panels beginning on Jan8th: It is understandably quite cold under those BN height looks. I do think the pattern flips west at some point unless the Nina can take hold. Notice the NAO showing back up?
  3. Carvers Gap
    I still think we have a storm window between the 7th-10th just due to nothing more than a decent storm track in early January. I think we are looking at a minimum of 3 weeks before the cold returns, possible 6 weeks if this is a new pattern. Modeling will hopefully tell us more during the next 3-4 days. Today's trends were 10/10 in terms of bad trends! LOL.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Definitely can kicking today. The EPS has the pattern change now after 300+. The GFS/GEFS was much too quick w/ the return to cold. I do wonder if we see it return during January at all, but I suspect we will. The HB block is no friend in its current configuration (w the Pac). We are about to find out what happens w/ no block over Greenland in combination w/ a bad Pac. I have my doubts that the PNA shows up at all. We may be waiting for the NAO to show-up again. This could still flip around as this is still way out there. My guess is more can kicking and cold around Jan15th. ...sign the waiver
  5. Carvers Gap
    The CMC at 12z is probably our best path forward. After nice runs at 6z and 12z, the GFS wen puke city both in the operational and ensemble. The CFSv2 may need some credit as it has been fairly decent over the past few days in sniffing out more warmth than the other models did. That said, this is far, far from over as the first seasonal front(not really cold) is due just after the 5th and maybe e cold front by the 8th.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I will keep it short and sweet. 12z suite in three words so far in the LR....HB block, zonal
  7. Carvers Gap
    People of Wise, come forth and get your trophy!
  8. Carvers Gap
    I posted the above in order to show how hostile climatology is towards coastal storms - aka as why E TN has less snow during some(certainly not all) Nina winters. Dial up whatever pattern we want...and climo is pretty hostile to colder weather from the spine of the Apps to the East coast. It took a record cold snap to drive cold to the coast this time around. There are some notable exceptions. Some of the very worst winters in my lifetime were weak La Ninas - snow, ice, cold. Some of the dries/coldest are weak La Ninas. They are extreme winters. Conversely, Nino winters are 40s/50s for highs w/ rain all winter long - not a lot of variability. Nina winters are HIGHLY variable as we are seeing this winter. When one looks at modeling, we can see the clusters of cold Nina cold winters from time to time. We also see the ones where winter gets progressively warmer which is also textbook Nina, especially for E TN. It was an easy call to say cold was coming for December. I am wary of a mirage for January as cold runs against the more weighted cluster of winters which warm as winter progresses. OTH, there are some winters which warmed, and then flipped back cold. I seriously doubt outside of a good guess(and excluding skilled, elite wx forecasters), many have a good handle on what comes after Jan5th and include me in the bunch which don't know. I lean cold, but am much less certain than the December call.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I was taking just a few minutes to look at generalized temp patterns during La Nina winters. December is textbook Nina. The atmospheric river is about to take care of any precip deficits on the West coast.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Felt like a heat wave when the sun came out today and we made it to the upper 30s.
  11. Carvers Gap
    This is a much better look....
  12. Carvers Gap
    This is ONLY an example as it is too far out there to be taken seriously. This is my concern w/ the HB block. Because of the configuration in the Pac(PNA is weak), this is all zonal maritime air. We have seen this during at some point during the past three winters. I remember being excited about the HB block when it first showed up a few years ago. I soon was faced with the reality that it wasn't going to deliver as once thought. The source region was hot garbage. We got a ton of storms which passed to our south, and got a ton of rain. I think we do OK immediately after this, but if this locks....not good.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Man, I went running last evening. I drive a truck, but decided to take the van instead. Bad decision. We got caught in that band south of Kingsport. It was pouring in Colonial Heights. I got to my house, and nada. We got a very slight dusting which makes our second.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I would go 50/50 we see temps below zero again. I generally try to keep my "gut" feelings out of the thread, and just stick to model observations/interpretation. This winter just has the feeling that we are going to see this pattern repeat. I have some in-house(meaning in my head) analogs which have been doing pretty ok. 10-11 is a good start. But this winter has some HL blocking that is old school in nature. '89 haunts me, and this has some characteristics of that....but some great winters started strong, had a thaw, and then went gangbusters. That is all I will say or I will have egg on my face!
  15. Carvers Gap
    Very true. These past two Nina winters have featured a several early season cold outbreaks, and some December snow....then IMBY(NE TN for those new to the forum) after December - zip. The primary storm track is right over E TN which means snow to my west and rain here. Middle and west TN, after MANY subpar winters, are poised to take the third straight season of of "most snow." Even TYS and MRX have been getting more snow during these Nina winters. In a normal winter, TRI usually gets far more snow other than your region. The problem for us during Nina's is storm track(no coastals which we need here), and drought which causes dry conditions during fall. Drought begets drought here. It takes a while to break it which means when temps are colder during Ninas(Dec), dry conditions persist, and it is nearly impossible to line-up cold and precip. 14-15 was rare IMBY, because we got northwest flow in Kingsport which is not normal. Sometimes it just snows where it is gonna snow.
  16. Carvers Gap
    And truly, snow patterns (snow on snow stuff) have never been the the norm at my elevation. Those patterns generally involve entrenched cold. I did wonder if the atmosphere was still able to get severely cold up until last week(like 84-85 cold). I now know it can. If snow had been on the ground, we would have approached the all time stuff which is incredible to me.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Come on over any time, Beavis, and commiserate!
  18. Carvers Gap
    It has been really bad over here. I spoke to someone who was in the Lowe's plumbing department yesterday - slammed. I can only imagine what regional industries are having to deal with right now. -20F to -30F wind chills over an entire plant - oof. Honestly, I am glad for some warmer weather.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I read a lot of the MA forum. Those guys really depend on the 50/50. Just gleening from them, December is rarely a good month for snow. I am guessing that feature is more prominent Jan-March but not certain. Good stuff, man!
  20. Carvers Gap
    To paraphrase Bob Chill today, in order to have big storm on the East Coast, we need the Atlantic to be good, and....we just need the Pacific to be not hostile. As soon as the Pacific became less hostile, the dam broke. Had the NAO not been there, we would have torched the entire month IMO. It saved us from a continuation of fall. I honestly do not understand the debate that the NAO didn't produce. I have been watching weather a very long time....these types of Decembers are rare birds. O9-10 is a rare bird. The Christmas snow that we had two years ago...rare. Generally, December is a step down to winter. No matter the synoptic set-up, it is generally not snow. For every, 09-10 I can provide 25 examples to the counter re: December. This December has featured record cold, crazy low wind chills, snow in middle and west TN, nearly record high (edit) pressures in Montana, blizzards, and more. Just because one doesn't get snow in their own backyard doesn't mean the NAO was not effective. As we all know snow requires a bit of "luck." Right now, the NAO helped ward off a rising QBO and terrible Pac. In fact, this December would rival many January and February patterns. I just hope folks can appreciate that what just occurred is not the norm, and is far from it. We were fortunate to track it and witness it. That big red ball over Greenland surely beats the big red ball over the Aleutians. And I am speaking as probably someone who received the least snow in the entire forum this month outside of Chattanooga. I would add that the NAO has been far more present during the past 2-3 years. I don't think it an accident that middle and west TN have experienced more snowfall(compared to putrid previous years) during that timeframe either. The Nina kicks that cold to the mid-section, but the cold is available. I certainly agree that having Pacific healthy is a good thing. I just strongly disagree that the NAO didn't produce.
  21. Carvers Gap
    And continuing to look forward, some things I have seen in modeling just to review or add to: 1. The MJO generally looks like it will traverse the cold phases at low amplitude. 2. The CFSv2 is not enthused w/ cold until later in the month on about every-other-run. 3. Ensembles are a buffet of PNA and/or HB blocks w/ generally BN heights over the SE and E by Jan 8-10. We lose the Greenland block for some time. There are hints it may return. 4. Be happy you live on this side of the Apps in regards to cold and snow. If indeed this is the start to winter(and not the totality of winter as seen in 89), last week was a great start. 5. The Euro Weeklies (difficult to know if bias is in play there), takes the trough back northwest during the fourth week of January, and never looks back. That is plausible and is even in my winter forecast which I put out in June. I am not overly confident the Weeklies are correct there, but they could be. I tend to think the same pattern (cold builds in the Mountain West and spreads eastward) is the base pattern w/ a standing SER in the SE during the interludes.
  22. Carvers Gap
    PNA DRIVER? Moving the conversation forward. Afternoon modeling points towards an easterly displaced PNA ridge(almost a Plains ridge at times) which at times may hook into the HB block. It is not a great position for the PNA - need it back west just a tad. That said, I don't think modeling has this totally nailed down yet. If we were wanting to play the Nino card...the BN weakness over east w/ the PNA hooked into HL blocking looks almost textbook in the d10-15 EPS run. Will it have a source region for cold? TBD...and an important question to be answered moving forward. Of importance, our climatology begins to favor snow. There is less working against us. And sometimes....it just snows where it wants to snow regardless of the pattern. I have seen snow during warm patterns. And as we noted over the summer, Nina set-ups tend to favor middle and west TN. Does the waning Nina begin to release that grip and allow E TN snow? TBD...or Does Nina hang on and send the trough back to the northwest? TBD. Again, I like the 10-11 analog. Let's see if it still works in January.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we posted the 10-11 analogs back in mid November in the December thread - nearly those exact images.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it is just off in the weeds rounding back on the same points.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I am very aware of 09-10 and it is an anomaly re: December snow. You are missing the point. My point is that NAO blocking is effective as you just effectively proved. We normally don't get great NAO's early in the season and that conflicts directly w/ December's climatology in the eastern valley. One might make the case that December's climatology is actually not favorable for snow as blocking often develops later in winter. That might be why we don't have many 09-10 examples in the past 50 years. Snow is often just luck of the draw in regards to timing. The STJ, if I remember correctly, was more active during the cold snap of 09-10. Heck, the actual snow were got was terribly forecasted as many were caught on the road during rush hour. We entered this December in a drought. That is a pretty big difference. If the STJ had been active this December...different result.
×
×
  • Create New...