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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I told ya’ll to watch this clipper. LOL
  2. Carvers Gap
    Winter Wx Advisories are posted for Northern Alabama.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Well, December wasn't done with us yet. Today, a clipper which was typical of the 80s winter cold shots....slid across TN(and really all of the forum area including MS) w/ light amounts. It even made it over the Plateau. In Kingsport the south side of town is getting decent amounts of light to moderate snow. The roads are covered. Many places in E TN received more snow with this than they did with the cold front a few days ago.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Ditto @tnweathernut, no SPV split for me either! The 18z GFS speeds up the transition back to cold. Instead of transitioning to cold between the 5th and 10th, it just flips cold(enough) on the 5th. That is now within the 10 day window.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Roads in Colonial Heights are a mess!!!! Moderate snow there.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Very fine, light snow is falling in west Kingsport - remnants of the clipper.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies are a mixed bag. The ensemble shows a window from Jan10-24th before the trough backs into the West for the foreseeable future. Oddly, the Weeklies keep temps at normal or just below even after the trough digs into the west. That tells me there is some variability in the pattern - meaning cold fronts push eastward at times. Honestly, it is a classic La Niña progression - and I am glad to be seeing the last winter of that front loaded winter progression!
  8. Carvers Gap
    12z comparisons EPS, GEFS, and GEPS. Some big differences exist. Scoreboard is 2 HB blocks vs 1 PNA ridge. I lean EPS. A storm signal is present from Jan7th-10th.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Here is how fluid long range forecasting is. The image on the right is 6z of the CFSv2. The image on the left is 12z(most recent) of the same time frame. It is possible that things are swing wildly like this due to cold wx about to enter the pattern. Still, this is why things are far from certain. I think the image on the left is likely as it matches its own MJO progression....but that is no slam dunk when the image on the right is only from 6 hours earlier. Also, as you can see, the PNA is either absent or weak. The colder solution occurs w/ HL blocking over Greenland.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS, GEPS, and 6z CFSv2 show the Hudson Bay block as the primary driver and NOT the PNA ridge. I don't see that ridge being of any significant influence on LR modeling on todays runs. That could easily change at this range, and probably will. The HB block will work provided that it does not bridge to lower latitudes and form a ridge in the Plains. The GEFS and GEPS do like they allow enough space for colder Canadian(not Arctic air) to get infected into the pattern. The CFSv2 is maritime only. The opportunities we do have will be somewhat thread the needle if LR modeling is correct. I do want to see the Euro Weeklies as noted above....but they may not have the 12z trend away from the PNA. The pain in the neck right now the GOA low and Nina climatology which doesn't want to go to phase 8 of the MJO.. Those are the roots of the problem. Those GOA lows can take weeks to dislodge, but we will see. We are going to need the Atlantic to do what it did during this month...NAO block
  11. Carvers Gap
    I managed to make it through December w/ a trace of snow, but severely cold temps. I am beginning to wonder if this PNA ridge does NOT materialize or is too weak to be of any service. Remember the comment above when I was saying that modeling was waffling between a PNA ridge and/or HB blocking? It looks like the trend on today's modeling is for the HB block to hold. The positive is that we see plenty of storms w/ a good track. The negative is maritime air enters/stays in the pattern. There is very little ridging showing up in the LR in the West. Weeklies this evening will be interesting and needed. The lack of a -NAO is going to be a problem
  12. Carvers Gap
    Lesson from this week...don't sleep on clippers. Models definitely favored west TN. From this point to close out December, warming temps and then to January.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Any returns reaching the ground in Knoxville? It looks like it should be just judging by radar.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Good score right there!
  15. Carvers Gap
    The CFSv2 continues to waffle with almost every run regarding whether a trough can take hold just prior to the 10th(and hold through most of the month). The EPS, GEPS, GEFS, GFS operational....all look decent for a return to seasonal or colder weather by the 10th-ish. Again, I think the MJO forecast is prob the culprit. Please sign the waiver when discussions about the long range begin - LOL.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Thank for the obs. That definitely helps as I am selfishly(prob unrealistically) hoping it manages to unexpectedly get over the Plateau. Yeah, I managed to get in a run yesterday. But DEFINITELy going to have to do some work after two great Christmas dinners yesterday. LOL.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The LR pattern looks reasonably good. We may well fight some zonal issues(there is another!) as the PNA isn't overly strong early on. Maritime flow blasts right through it. That said, the pattern at 500mb could possibly deliver normal temps for January...and that is plenty good. Still a nice storm signal between say the 7th and 10th.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Looks like Smyrna, Nashville, West Nashville, and. Clarksville are reporting light snow. Not sure that it holds together for NE TN as modeling shows it Fallon apart. Here’s to hoping for some mood flakes though!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Anyone in west TN or middle have clipper observations? I will be interested if the snow is reaching the ground.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Told ya'll not to sleep on that clipper. WWAs up in eastern Arkansas, west TN, northern MS, and western KY. Nearly every major cold shot for me as a kid had a clipper right behind it.
  21. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Suppression. Northwest jog. Cold/dry pattern. Wet/rainy pattern. Warm nose. Down slope. Kick the can. Best accums are always outlier runs. MJO. IO convection. Convection in the Gulf. Model loses the storm: OTS. Cold gets stuck on the Plateau. Low in the Lakes.....
  22. Carvers Gap
    Goes without saying. All caveats apply. I usually don’t list the long list of ways it can’t snow.
  23. Carvers Gap
    A gradient look is usual money here during January.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Sign me up for what the 18z GEFS is cooking after Jan5th. A PNA forms while still holding some of the HB block. This allows for an east/west storm track which is suppressed and just cold enough.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS has decent storm signal Jan7th-ish. Slides the slp under TN and then up the coast. Long way out and just spitballing.
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