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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    The CMC keeps them separate. Thing is, with HP over the stop and southern stream energy w/ shortened wavelengths.....there is room for something to come north along the coast.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Let's see if the 12z CMC does something similar as it has a similar setup just at 84.....
  3. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the 12z GFS stalls that low or at least it crawls. That was close to a very, very big storm. That is only 5-6 days out.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Who knows if the 12z GFS is right(and it did identify the jan5 cold front before other modeling if memory serves me correctly), but it just about phased the northern and southern branch features at 126, and then buckled the jet at 132 w/ a slp along the SC coast.
  5. Carvers Gap
    So, I have been meaning to change my profile for a while. When I went to Roan Mtn this week, I decided to get a better photo. Most of the time I get too much glare from the sign up there(or it is socked in cloudy), and I don't get a clear shot for whatever reason. It fits my handle so I rolled with it. I didn't even make the connection to the game until after it was over. I thought about changing it back to the PowerT for a few days, but was like hey...why mess with a good thing(as in we won)!!!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Operational modeling this morning looks good. Ensembles look to be following the GEFS lead. Does it score a coup? It just might. GBO!
  7. Carvers Gap
    What a win. Whew. I am worn out!!!!
  8. Carvers Gap
    I hope South Carolina just enjoyed their bowl game.
  9. Carvers Gap
    IDK. With our QB, 2 best WRs, and best defensible player out...my bar is set extremely low. If it was weather, the northwest jog is real.
  10. Carvers Gap
    In general, the 12z global deterministic runs bring the first cold shot around January 5th, and then subsequent cold fronts after that w/ warm interludes. It would not surprise me to see snow showers behind the system on the 5th. I think this pattern gets progressively cold. By the third week in January, this pattern might be really cold. So, enjoy the next 6 days....
  11. Carvers Gap
    1989 is probably the winter that haunts me. I have said that before, and I say it again. We had not had multiple warm winters (consecutively) in my lifetime at that point. My childhood was the 1970s. I only knew cold and snowy winters. I had just lived through 84-85. The winters had warmed slightly since the mid80s, and that trend was noticeable. But...given how cold Jan85 was, it had no where to go but up. So, when '89 hit I thought we were back in action. I was. a student at UTK at the time, and it was cold. There was a huge snowstorm predicted that didn't materialize. I headed home for the break, and came back to spring. Winter never came back. The outdoor pools on campus began to open to students in the middle of winter. It was surreal. December 2018(I think I have that right) is another example of December cold which froze rivers, and winter just muddled along after. So, I am wary of dam-breaking, cold outbreaks during early winter - very wary. So, I thought it might be interesting to reconstruct(forensic climatology sort of...) of that winter. Can you imagine AmWx w/ this???? Can you imagine the calls to just shut it down until next winter? December: January: February: So, when I see a very cold shot in December, I wonder. I this the repeat? And I don't think so this year. There is much more cold in the West during December. It didn't really make it in force to many coastal cities of the east coast. The other thing I notice is the lack of blocking up top during January and February. Modeling has HL blocking for January. Whether it helps us or not is another discussion entirely. Additionally, December was PNA/EPO driven and not NAO driven. NAOs during winters tend to repeat off-and-on during winter. In fact, there was very little blocking over Greenland that winter at all. What I think (and am certainly not certain of) is that we are seeing a typical January thaw. My main concern is that Nina winters IMBY tend to leave during January and not come back. The caveat? This is a rare third year La Nina. I am not even sure a fourth year Nina has ever been recorded(I read that and cannot confirm). I suspect the 6z GFS is too quick, but if it is right...winter is back quite quickly. I am reading some strat warm stuff. Honestly, I don't like it as much as I used to as it seems to throw a wrench in good patterns. But given the pattern through mid-January, I don't think it is wrecking much if it occurs. Also, winter patterns tend to repeat. That pattern is extreme cold diving into the West and racing eastward. That has been ongoing since mid-November. Let's see if that repeats 2-3 more times this winter along w/ very warm interludes.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS has what amounts to a major winter storm(prob would be for E TN if correct), but the GFS has resumed producing outlier solutions. For now, I think it an outlier unless gets some support from another model.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Overall, trends have been quite good today. If I didn't remember yesterday, I would be pretty bullish. The GFS has cold returning on Jan 5th which is within 7 days now. Honestly, the warmth today was a welcome respite. If the Euro control is anywhere close to being correct, we had better enjoy it while it lasts!
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS has a storm signal for middle and west TN at 168, and has been pretty consistent in that look for several days(maybe a week). E TN could score w/ the redevelopment in the Piedmont of a slp.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Euro control during middle of January. That is a seven day running average for that image..........
  16. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies. First image is the 30day control run(Jan13-Feb13). Please refer to the Jan 2010 analog above. Next two are temp and precip. If the Weeklies are correct, they will work. The storm around the 7th-8th begins to erode the warmth. Looks like the real fireworks begin around the third week of January. My guess is the ensemble is a bit too slow w/ that progression. That is a really good look on the control - really good.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I did just replace our kitchen faucet, but it just finally broke down(not due to cold). I put it off long enough until finally the water on the kitchen floor made me pay attention to it. I was glad that was all it was as the outside faucet is hooked into that line, and I thought it broke. I was relieved to find that the faucet was all it was.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Took a little trip to the namesake today...The place was overrun w/ people from North Carolina - no offense to our forum members from there.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Weeklies looked really good. If I get time I will try to get a break down of them. When you see snow in the GOM. But I do bring this nugget(Euro control):
  20. Carvers Gap
    To clarify..I want standard run-of-the-mill cold and not bust-my-pipes cold.
  21. Carvers Gap
    We can live with the global deterministic(operational) runs today. Storm track is really good.
  22. Carvers Gap
    That is a very cold run of the 12z GFS.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Very good and I didn't expect any less from you! Yes, that is January 2010.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Since we are in some down time...let's play guess that analog. I have been digging around looking for HB blocks in the middle of January. So far, not many. The 0z EPS and 6z GEFS below are IMHO a southward displacement of that analog. That displaced look is yielding very different results in modeling than the analog, but the look was strikingly comparable. Now, assuming I didn't leave an unforeseen time stamp on that analog, which one is it(without going to the re-analysis page)?
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS has lots of activity into marginal temps. Coastals, sliders, and cutters. It looks like an active STJ during prime climatology. We may have to thread the needle a bit, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see someone in the forum area score some snow between Jan 5-15th. Let’s see if modeling continues those good trends...
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