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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    To clarify, that is mainly on the GFS(past several runs). It might just be a GFS bias, or the GFS is spotting potential at range. It has energy between the 13th and 17th which other modeling seems to be holding back or is missing altogether.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Some decent hints at coastal development between Dec 14-18. There are two pieces of energy. The one around the 14th is quite strong, but OTS. The trailer is interesting as energy from the Midwest slides over the top. Right now, there is nothing major on modeling, but it is close....
  3. Carvers Gap
    Man, it got cold quickly this afternoon.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I was talking to a friend(I missed the 18z GFS run, and he pointed it out) and one thing that came from that discourse is that many cold, winter patterns begin with a very powerful storm. The Euro Weeklies tonight have moved up the 500mb pattern to Dec 17th. The 18z GFS has the flip on December 18th and it begins with a monster storm in the East. I have been watching 2-3 piece of energy between say Dec 11th and 18th. They have been close to phasing on several runs.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Temps are above normal for December(first 2/3 of the month AN temps are not going to be overcome I don't think) and slightly BN for Jan/Feb depending on your location in the forum area. Precip is BN from the Plateau westward, and seasonal for the Apps. Get out a paddle, though, come springtime. No idea if the those maps verify, but that is about as opposite from last year as we can get. Could the seasonals be falling into a trap by relying on outdated analogs? Maybe. This will be a good test. OTH, we are seeing the pattern change now on global ensembles and even operationals. If the Euro gets this right, it nailed the longwave pattern from way out there.
  6. Carvers Gap
  7. Carvers Gap
    Euro seasonals say, "Bring it."
  8. Carvers Gap
    Winter Weather Advisories posted for the spine of the southern Apps along most of the TN/NC border. Snow showers are in my forecast for late tonight and early tomorrow AM. MRX: A trough over the northern Plains this morning will be pushing SW and amplifying through the day. A channeled vort max around the base of the trough will be pushing into our area this afternoon, generating some weak lift and steepening lapse rates. Initially, moisture will be confined below 850 mb, as we are seeing with the low clouds this morning. By 00Z, the midlevels begin to saturate as the trough brings colder temps aloft, and precip should increase quickly around that time in northern sections. Initial temperatures at precip onset will be in the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s, but a shift of 850 mb winds around midnight will enhance cold advection and steepen lapse rates, changing rain showers to snow showers in SW VA, NE TN, northern Plateau, and the TN mountains. In lower elevations, surface temps will likely be too warm for much snow accumulation (mid 30s), but for locations above 2500 ft, temps should be cold enough for snow to accumulate. A NW flow of around 25 kts will enhance precip rates in the higher elevations through Wednesday morning. With low level trajectories off the Great Lakes and the 850 mb flow persisting around 25 kts, the TN mountains and higher elevations of SW VA will continue to see some accumulating light snow into Wednesday afternoon. With this duration of snowfall, at least 1 inch accumulation is likely for locations above 2500 ft, so a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued. Above 4000 ft in the Smokies, amounts will likely exceed 3 inches, but will have an Advisory for that area given the snow amounts will be highly dependent on local terrain, and most populated areas will be under 3 inches.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Or maybe I should have just said... The 18z GFS heard the thundahhhh!
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS just slams the door on fall. That is winter. I doubt that verifies, but that is winter.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Hey, man, and good to have you in thread. When BNA shows up, it is time for business.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That map by Jax has the mid NA ridge which sets the stage for a WAR to go up briefly. Behind that WAR is the pattern change. That is the last or second to last ridge to roll through. Hey, does anyone have a link to the Google AI maps? JB mentioned that ECMWF had them for free. I haven't looked. Great discussion everyone.
  13. Carvers Gap
    It is really cold under that high though. There are -15F readings in Quebec. I think it is the combination of tight wavelengths, and early season hp. Those early season highs aren't super strong, and it is originating from a less than stellar cold air mass. Very Nino looking though w/ marginal air masses down this way.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I mean it is possible that a cold high could slide into those short wavelengths and get trapped with a high over the top. That is ice city if real - which it probably isn't. To my untrained eye, that would be a fairly shallow surface high with big pressure building over the top.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Snow map is posted so that you can see the storm track. Notice the deep snow cover over Quebec and eastern Canada - that is like a recharging battery for cold over the East. On the 500 map(30d map from Dec20 -Jan19, notice where the BN heights are. This has present for weeks if not months on LR modeling. HL latitude blocking signatures are present as is a +PNA w/ split flow. Bout time to mount up. Lots to like about those maps. Even better, the 12z EPS supports the 0z Weeklies 500 maps. On about a 14-16 day countdown at this point. This is the exact opposite of last winter where we could see the end of the cold at this point.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Man, the Euro Weeklies drop the hammer at about d14 at 500...takes the temps about 3-4 days later to come down, but 09-10esque. The weather today just feels like the intro to a transition. Thunder, lightning, wind, rain...everything that fall wasn't.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Just a slight disconnect!
  18. Carvers Gap
    Truly amazing how accurate that rule is.......
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is showing a switch to the long discussed switch to Nino climatology - meaning SE trough. The switch/transition is now at d14.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I don't know honestly. I don't keep track of severe as much as I do winter wx events. Right now, this looks like an upper-Gulf Coast states events. Southern TN could get involved. But as Powell noted, pretty unusual to see sever wx outlook this far out...
  21. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove feels like the storm this weekend sets the stage for the trough to drop-in about 10 days later. He thinks that is the catalyst.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Of course everything is subjective past 5-7 days. However, it looks like modeling has been quite consistent in switching the pattern up around the 20th at 500mb. Now, that might take a few days past that for cold air to enter the pattern. I think Nino is driving the boat now. We are seeing increased precip, cloudy days, and the signature 50/60s temps and lows in the 40s. My seasonal ideas have the pattern changing to cold by mid January. Models are much faster than that w/ the Dec 20th change...if they are right. The WAR showing up on modeling does hint at an SSW incoming. I used to get frustrated when I would see the SER hook-into the NAO. Not anymore. That is usually a fairly big precursor to big pattern changes down the road. The 12z GEPS has the change now at d14-15 now. Honestly, it is pretty impressive that the Euro Weeklies could possibly have nailed this switch from 4-6 weeks - pretty amazing when one thinks about it.
  23. Carvers Gap
    If weather models were college football playoff teams: Michigan = Euro. We know they are good, but that model steals our signs and Heismans(I mean snow). And some of us really just don't like that model, because it is only blue(at 500) in Michigan. Texas = GFS. It is all American, and is only good during the fall. Washington = CMC. They seem like they should belong, but nobody is quite sure until they actually win against a good team. Alabama = AI model. AI should be better. Why? It is AI, and it gets in because Google made it. But really, we aren't sure if it is better, or just has a good day every once in a while. FSU = CFSv2. We know it is good, but we just don't think it can stand up against other models. But A LOT of us don't like the AI model, and would prefer the CFSv2 as a personal preference. (no offense meant towards our AI friends in the Big Bend area of the TN river). Georgia = UKMET. It leads the way right before the Euro comes out every day. But in the end, it just isn't the Euro, and AI made it look bad. Tennessee = Euro Weeklies. They always look good from a distance. But when reality hits, it is just a passing cold front. But we love them, because they alway show orange(on 500 maps) over Greenland. Plus, the Weeklies are said to be able to throw it 80 yards. But last year the Weeklies were better than the AI model, and we are gonna live on that for the next five years.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That cutter is likely gonna be strong. It probably isn't wrong unfortunately. Good find.
  25. Carvers Gap
    All global ensembles to varying degrees have the pattern change at around d15-16. Still a ways to go, but good to see that ridge getting the boot.
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