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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Until it proves me wrong, the MJO is the Draw Four card in this UNO game....
  2. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove thinks springs shows up during March (above normal?) mainly because the Nino collapses during the next 8 weeks. If the Nino holds on, that would mean a cooler spring. If Nina shows up, warm.... @jaxjagman, do you have the ENSO graph for the next few months? But to answer your question, I am not sure. I could see March being cold to start and end warm. That is just an educated guess. If winter goes severe during February, it would make sense for it to snap back to a warm pattern once the cold is spent.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I suspect modeling is waaaay under doing the warm-up. Ensembles are starting to see the MJO rotation now, but no slam dunk that it is warm. Where I would have said there is about a 90% chance of significant warm wx after the 10th, now I would say 70%. Then cold looms again after that - maybe 4 weeks of seasonal/BN and we make a break for spring. The NAO could completely erase the warm sig on modeling...but I just think the MJO wins.
  4. Carvers Gap
    If the MJO was driving the bus, this should park a trough out West.....that is a really cold pattern right there. Hints of an EPO ridge, NAO(slightly displaced), and a confluence over our latitude. Normally, I wouldn't show a 360 hour ensemble thumbnail, but go take a look at its past few runs.......this is a big change, and that started overnight.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The CMC has a winter storm just before 200h. That would bring the zr/sn line well south if that verified. Fun suite today.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Silas, I am beginning to think the Plateau might be a decent spot for this Friday deal. Keep an eye on the 2nd. I would read afternoon discos today.
  7. Carvers Gap
    And there it is at 171. That has been on modeling for several days on the GFS. The 12z GFS is no different. I would like to see the CMC get on board though with at least having some reflection of southern stream energy. Without that energy, it is just snow showers and flurries.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Basically, what we are trying to "cook-up" is a clipper partially phasing with southern stream energy on the 2nd.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Pretty crazy to see the differences between the GFS and CMC at a 132. The CMC is missing the southern stream energy completely. If it was there, that could have been a decent run. The GFS has energy lagging back a bit in the northern stream. That system around Jan 1 or 2 is one to watch as well.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Snow here in the 'hood lasted in the shade for about three days. It wasn't much, but crazy to see a dusting last that long in the shade. Ya'll are gonna have to get your act together on the Plateau! LOL. Yeah, it looks like modeling is consolidating on some energy sliding through middle TN. It wouldn't surprise me for this to have more precip(per Boone) and also for it to trend NE. But that is a fairly textbook track for that type of system. The storm track over the next 14 days should get pushed far, far to the south. I am actually kind of watching to see if Chattanooga can score in this pattern.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z RGEM has a decent little mini-thump for middle TN and northern Alabama. I like the RGEM with systems like these.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Here is a quote from LC this morning. He actually posted shortly before I posted my previous post(but I hadn't read it yet). Here is what LC had to say. Hopefully, he won't mind me quoting him. If so, I will be glad to take it down.... But the 500MB level outlines show an impressive -AO/-NAO blocking signature emerging by January 11. This is very close to the analog projection, and would support a very cold western two-thirds of the USA vs. a warm East after the 15th of January. There most certainly will be a "Thaw", but probably only 7 to 10 days worth across the lower 48 states before winter comes back full force.
  13. Carvers Gap
    We are very likely going to have to get help from a -NAO as the MJO is about to go to crap after the 10th....crawl, and I mean potentially crawl through the warm phases. I am talking like 20 days just to get through two phases on one model plot. Then, there is also a group of model plots which slam into phase 3, can't advance, and then rotate through the COD. That said, I think modeling has a bias for being too low with amplitude this winter. I was honestly surprised to see the MJO plots this morning as global ensembles don't seem to be synced in comparison with what their (ext) weeklies yesterday were portraying. Those were some very BIG moves on ensembles last night re: 500 structure after the 10th. Both the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS broke from continuity, and had a much colder solution. The best I can tell is that the NAO/AO couplet may tray to take over as the main driver. The NAO is showing up quite nicely on LR global ensembles(not the Weeklies...but within 16 days type of stuff). As one friend noted, beware....modeling has showing that great look only to hook the NAO into an eastern ridge. So, proceed with caution. I still think we see a really window until maybe the 10th roughly. Then, we take a 10-25 day break(timeline dependent on the MJO progression), and then we hit a stretch where we see good MJO phases, blocking over the Davis Straits, and ample cold in Canada to draw from. But....I think there is now potential on the table(lower probability...but plausible) that the lull could evaporate. Like yesterday, I think we see an opening salvo, a lull(maybe extended), and then the hammer drops. Hoping school systems have plenty of time banked.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS is very decent for most of the forum. And yeah, this weekend is wild on modeling. I would guess this would jog north a bit. But the Euro has a much different location. Fun to track.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Wait until the last minute to see where that low jogs. Modeling is all over the place right now. Then, maybe rent a VRBO in the area where it is supposed to be the worst. Roan Mountain is easy to get in and out of(the base...NOT the top). Gatlinburg would be an option, though GSMNP will close the road over the top at the slightest hint of snow nowadays. Ober has done really well of late on NW flow events. Townsend would be another. A good sleeper option is Beauty Spot near Newport, but make sure to turn around if you cannot get out of there. Also, have maps printed as cell service is iffy there. That said, there is a Methodist Camp near Beauty Spot...if you get stuck, go there.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Last year, the writing was on the wall by this time - the trough was retreating into the West and was done in the East. @Itryatgolf70saw if first, and was correct. This time around, I think we are looking at a legitimate winter pattern during the last half of winter. My only concern(and it is significant) is the MJO really crawls through the warm phases which surprises me. I did no foresee that. The MJO was a little more quick about its business this morning on the CPC site. But really, the MJO shouldn't be dawdling in the warm phases at all. Cosgrove thinks this is a natural reset after the early cold of Jan. He has been adamant that the last week of Jan and most of Feb could be a strong winter wx pattern for the Plains -> eastward. Looks like a classic set-up IMHO. What is crazy, it reminds me a lot of a combination of 95-96(weak Nina) and 14-15. Those are big winters, and I apologize to everyone for sensationalizing a bit much....but the pattern wear cold hits in early January, retreats, and then returns is a normal pattern progression for this forum area. Maybe since we are a little warmer this go around, it will be like 14-15(light). Later this month and/or early Feb....If the NAO combines with an MJO 7-8-1-2-3 progression along with the QBO descending, that is a great set-up. Now, it could miss. We do live where it wants to rain most of the time....but it certainly looks like a very cold set-up is building for North America.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I think what we are about to see is the opening salvo of winter, followed by an undetermined but warm pause, and then multiple repeats of Jan1-10 from roughly Jan22-end of Feb.
  18. Carvers Gap
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS ensemble looks very good BTW for a large chunk of the state for the entire run. Decent signal on the operational and ensemble for this weekend in NE TN, but this is woefully tough for modeling to figure out....changes are not done yet - I feel confident in saying that only.
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z ensembles(CMC and GFS) are rolling currently, and many members do show chances for light accumulations later this week. There are a wide range of solutions ranging from west to middle to eastern forum areas or some combo thereof. Good luck to modeling as it tries to figure that one out. I do think the pattern after next weekend looks really good FWIW. edit: To clarify, modeling looks good through maybe the 12th before taking a 10-20 day break.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Last winter, we didn't even see many winter storms on modeling, even d+10. Well, the 12z GFS pretty much builds a glacier in some areas. Is it right? Probably not at that level, but storms are showing up around the 10th. @tnweathernutmentioned that in a recent post.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I don't think Miller Bs help any of us....I was just explaining the snowpack over the Midwest. Hybrids work up here though.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Merry Christmas (Eve....24th run) from your favorite ext global ensembles....2x 46day and 1x35day snow maps. Euro control is picking up on two storms - Jan 12th and Jan 22nd. When snow gets to the Panhandle....usually a good thing on modeling. Modeling definitely is keying on an inland runner Miller A primary track with likely some Miller B thrown in as well. Snow pack to our north means cold air could return in a hurry if the MJO will allow it or the NAO locks. No idea if correct, but enjoy!
  24. Carvers Gap
    Whew. The 12z GFS just put it on TRI for Fri/Sat.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS full-run snow map....
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