Carvers Gap
-
Posts
17,051 -
Joined
-
Last visited
2 Followers
About Carvers Gap
Recent Profile Visitors
17,523 profile views
.thumb.jpg.9707d4addca3d84715ae3d888c5c10d6.jpg)
-
Andy any snow cover may make it difficult to get those temps above freezing. Yes...I had just posted the same thing. Good catch.
-
I would strongly suggest you all also use the ensembles. They have some interesting things embedded...a bit more snow. The 12z EPS shifted the snow axis about 1.5 counties south. The beginning of the Euro was also colder...sometimes the beginning of the scenario is more accurate due to it being closer in time...if it continues to cool and move precip southward near the start time in Texarkana...could be a sign the model is adjusting on the fly. We have seen that entry point into our forum change like that....and it has big implications down stream. I think for NE TN, we see 2-3" of snow followed by ice...know your microclimate. Also, interestingly....models are not showing a lot of mercy to the foothills regions w/ downslope.
-
Maybe.
-
Welp. Guess we are now tracking an ice storm.
-
At 80, the Euro has 39 at TRI and 16 in NW Tenn....Similar to recent La Nina storms.
-
Guessing run out moisture followed by a low which cuts just based on temps....I can see those pretty far out into the run on WxBell. Just toggle over.
-
Gonna almost assuredly cut...but was much cooler to start that run. Pretty big change in temp prior to roughly 65 hours - as in lower over the entire eastern half of the country.
-
Hmmm.
-
WSW posted now for all of Tennessee.
-
Yeah, I'll jump over in the long term thread in a bit to discuss. I have to go get my run in!
-
The 12z UKMET is two waves as well. First wave is winter. Second wave is a cutter.
-
Nothing quite like thunderstorms falling into temps which are below freezing over North Carolina.
-
@Daniel Boone....take a look at the GFS and you can see the consequences of a stronger system this weekend. Give me some of that d10 GFS.
-
Not sure there will be a ton of snowpack. It will depend on that first wave. If the first wave can deliver, many of us will see some snow before the ice. But for now(and I mean this exact moment at 11:44AM on Jan21), ice is the story IMHO. When you first watch the GEM, it looks remarkably similar to the GFS. The second wave is where they differ. As Jeff noted, reality is probable somewhere in the middle between the GEM and GFS.
-
12z GEM and GFS maps.
