Carvers Gap

Fortunate indeed! I remember walking through the neighborhood and just listening to the wind how as very fine snow was falling. Fun evening.

I have shrubs that finally recovered this season!!! They got absolutely scorched.

In TRI, that would be 0.5" of ice preceding 10-12" of snow. Give me the snow...I don't want any ice. Slow-ish moving wave. If it was closer, I would post maps.

Real temps behind that fall to -10F in some places and -20F for WCs. Fun run. Unlikely we see that every run, but fun!

Lets try that again, and this time NOT in centimeters. In my haste I clicked centimeters. Up to 30" of 10:1 snow. Most assuredly, if that wasn't Digital snow, that would be much more due to higher rates due to colder air. 40" Kuchera in W VA.

It would make a lot of sense if the pattern was about to break for warm...for that blizzard to show in exactly that spot. The GFS has held to that since yesterday. I would encourage everyone to not get their hopes up. I actually don't like tracking Christmas systems since so many get their hopes up. But I really want to see the GFS hit this from day 16. Also, do remember that systems are often lost between d5-7. Let's get that out of the way now. LOL.

That is a blizzard. Wow. It will assuredly change, but the 18z has a full fledged blizzard after 300.

The 18z GFS has two "mood flake" systems, and one boomer. Plenty to track for December.

Really, the pattern right now is cold, reload, and more cold. That might end later in December.

The 18z GFS has the anafront again. Gonna be wild if it hits from d16. Seems like it hit that Christmas Eve anafront(from a few years back) at the same range.

Currently snow is falling in west Kingsport. A little band has been set up. Just barely missed today.

I think the bigger warmup comes between Dec 22 and mid Jan…that could be wrong, but that is what it appears to me. Lots of precip in the MC at that time.

I do think there will be a ridge which rolls through between the cold shot on the 14th and the next one on the 18th. That has been strongly modeled, Bastardi has noted the WPO has been erroneously modeled by the Euro/EPS suite for weeks. He thinks there is a problem with its algorithm. He noted the WPO appears to be driving the pattern. When it weakens, other drivers take over.

I just don’t see the evidence of it being in 6. There is no ridge in the east at the moment. Only the EPS is modeling a big warm up. It could happen. There were some overnight runs which support that. But the EPS has struggled mightily. All of these warmups have yet to verify. I think after the 20th seems right.

I don’t buy the 12z EPS right now. It has no support from its deterministic model and has been wrong for several weeks in trying to slide a permanent ridge into the east. I think a ridge is coming but more likely around the 20th. I can’t tell if it just rolls through or is a pattern change. I could be wrong, but I think we are good through the 18th with possibly one more trough after that before we get a break.