Carvers Gap

They 18z GFS is an impressive snow storm for middle and western areas around 210. It will almost assuredly change, but it is an example of what some of us have been watching. It looks like 2-3 strong amplifications beginning around St Patrick's Day.

Man, these are some cold operational runs. To be clear so there isn't confusion. The cold I am looking at begins around mid-month, say roughly around 200 hours. 12z models are quite cold w/ snow chances embedded - both the 12z GEM and GFS. I don't see any big storms(potential is probably embedded within ensembles as Knox has shown), but snow could be in the air on more than one occasion. The second half of March is not looking warm IMHO. Again, this looks like a continuation of the pattern.....cold -> record or near record warmth -> small cold shot -> more warmth -> big cold shot. We have cycled through that pattern already twice. I think the chances of that occurring a third time are increasing, but w/ a Spring twist.

The 6z GFS was interesting for Thursday. Both the 0z GEM and 0z Euro are still showing 1-2 amplification events incoming around mid-month and just after. This could be a WILD swing given the temps we have seen during the past few days. Highs could be 40-45 degrees colder at TRI than what we are seeing and will see this weekend. Wind chills in the mid-upper teens would not surprise me at some point between d5-16.

Ensembles are honking for a pretty good cold outbreak mid-month. Duration TBD.

I still think we are likely in a repeat of the same cycle which persisted through much of winter. 2-3 weeks of cold, followed by 2-3 weeks of warm weather, followed by a false start back to cold, and then finally the trough over the East amplifies.

After the severe window, both the 12z GEM and Euro have a fairly pronounce trough sliding through the East...and maybe more than one. That will also have to be watched. That type of setup can get squirrely. Really, the severe setup followed by cold/snow showers is not without precedent.

Spring Discussion Thread has been posted....

Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours.

I had been hearing about some of the heavy snows to hit Japan during the past few days. Here is a YouTube video of some of that snow. It was just posted two days, so I assume it is recent. Pretty amazing amounts.

I thought wx models did well at range w/ yesterday's NW flow potential. They kind of hiccuped within 72 hours, but eventually reality would match those prolonged upslope runs from a week ago.

Nice way to cap the season here. We had light snow falling for almost 24 hours. The snow didn't accumulate much as John noted. Last evening about 8:30, it did pick up and coat everything w/ 0.25-0.4" of powder. Schools were on delay or closed today in much of NE TN. I suspect we get 1-2 more cold shots, but for now....the rain/snow line looks like it is over the Ohio River Valley. But this is the time of year where wx models can change wildly at times. Anything is possible.

Nice little dusting IMBY which occurred over the past couple of hours. Chalk up a "trace" at my house.

Windows would be Feb 27, March 2nd, and March 5th.....nothing huge, but times to watch.

And just to add...I do think the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have enough cold and amplification where we could still score some snow. I honestly haven't looked a ton over the past few days...but they don't look terrible.

I should add that the Euro operational at 12z wasn't particularly warm. Some chances are embedded in that run.