Carvers Gap

In fact, this could be a very different run of the 12z Euro.

12z Euro presses the high into place by 111. This thing isn't coming north.

Not a major cutter. Significant changes w/ surface pressure anomalies. Much colder run, and less punch through middle TN. TRI doesn't even get above freezing during the event. 6-10 degrees colder over much of E TN. Major move.

The 12z AIFS just moved off its mark. Much stronger high presence.

Buckle up, ya'll!

Then AIFS might be just a bit different.....

Where did you find that?

I feel like the shields are about to go up in KPT, @Holston_River_Rambler.

Indeed. The GFS and 6z AIFS have the same deal. And very, very cold temps w/ that second one.

AIFS late?

I hope they aren't riding w/ the lowest verification score, right? I think the GFS is about to be badly wrong.

What are you changing your tune to?

"Nothing to see here...move right along."

FWIW, the 12z GFS is absolutely burying your area.

Maybe we better start looking at the QPF trends? I have to think a 1040+ hp sitting to the north of this is a big problem, especially since it is well west of the Apps into the Midwest or plains.