Carvers Gap
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Impressive. I bet that 6z GFS run went in recently....but that is huge from this range.
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Yes. That is the one you had to remind me of that time...ice to snow and back to ice in Knoxville.
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5-7" band of sleet stretching over a good portion of Tenn. Never seen anything like it!
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This is reminding more of the 93-94 storm @John1122. Lots of ice and snow in Knoxville followed by cold temps. I40-74 was down to like one lane for a few days due to that. What do you think?
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I don't like waiting on a second system west of the Apps. Too many times I have seen that slide into the Carolinas during previous storms. Need a 0z Euro solution or AIFS look. Fortunately, the GFS is well...the 12z GFS. There is a reason it scores poorly. The 12z GEM is trending south. And as always...read Jeff's post above.
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Throw the GEM, ICON, and GFS in the blender....good result.
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I was thinking the same. The ZR was gone, but snow was missing. Somebody had to have been pasted on that run!
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Yeah, the 12z GEM is a MAJOR winter storm...gonna try to go inland runner @TellicoWx
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Yup. 12z GEM is south of 0z pretty bigly. Just watching trends right now.
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I am always wrong w/ the GEM in thinking it will be suppressed...but the high is pushing further south on this run at 12z
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The ICON looks overly amped. The GFS looks under amped. Blend them...and looks good. All I am doing today is throwing the models in a blender.
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I don't like that we have had feedback all over North America this winter which turned out to be false. That 6z GFS run almost had to have been. OTH, Juneau, Alaska, did get hammered. Mammoth got hammered, but really...kind of normal for them to have big storms like that. Russia got hammered. Strong amplifications and big storms kind of seem to be slightly more prevalent in the NH this winter??? Also, Italy's Alps got hammered after weeks of news stories saying they wouldn't have snow for the winter - huge snows at the end of December. I hope we get in on the action on some level...maybe not 2-3" of ice. For me, I think we need to see cold high pressure maintain its presence along w/ the STJ. Get those cooking, and see where it goes....
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You know the thing that is concerning for me is that on the 6z GFS run...we barely get above freezing at TRI from Saturday to the end of the run. The 0z Euro (can't use the 6z as it only goes out to 144) doesn't bring us above freezing until Feb 2, and has a very severe cold snap on the 30th. Maybe the real story(other than snow) is the duration and severity of the cold which could accompany this. If we get heavy snow or ice, that could be significant problem in combination w/ cold which follows. The GFS and GEM-para also both have another pretty severe cold snap around the 30th. The 0z EPS has a 10day mean from Jan 24th to Feb 3 which is 10-15 degrees BN...incredible or an ensemble to have that.
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The full run of the 6z GFS is just insanity - Mammoth like. I am guessing there is some feedback in that. The 6z AI Euro and 6z Euro were strong runs. 0z UKMET is the furthest north. Ensembles generally fit deterministic runs. 6z ICON if you want something to worry about.
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Two are for this Saturday...I threw in one bonus map for the entire run.
