Carvers Gap

The entire run at 12z was 1-3 feet over most of the state. That is just the second storm.

And I have posted this for a few days. When you see 500 Geopotential maps that look like this, that is the setup for a good winter storm in the Upper South. Moisture feed from the southwest as very cold air crashes in. I remember a storm in 1985 which did something similar. How do I know this? My dad was hauling oil from St Louis that winter. He called and said that he had been barely driving in front of a winter storm the entire trip back to TRI. Sure enough, he pulled in and snow moved in immediately. We had 2-3 foot drifts of cold driven snow in my yard by the next day...I didn't live in the bubble at the time. I have to think this is a similar setup.

Haha, true Reb. I was like, "What the heck?" when that next slide hit. I have an old rule that says when a strong cold front drags its feet along the Gulf, that tends to allow for cyclogenesis. You can watch that front hit the waters of the Gulf, and immediately moisture flows north. A word of caution w/ that setup, and have been shafted many times by this scenario...if that develops(assuming real) convection along the Gulf, it will stop the moisture feed north. I don't trust the Pacific feature feeding in, BUT(and this is a big but) the synoptics with this run used the Gulf feed scenario which is more plausible. Still, it is the GFS. However, the GFSAI got to a similar place. If the Euro AIFS continues to have it, that would be incredibly encouraging.

haha...and boom, there it goes. Putrid it is not. Gulf feed this time w/ some Pacific feed which I think is sketch.

The 18z AIGFS actually has that connection but w/ the Gulf. I do think there is a better than decent chance the GFS is on to something in regards to the 17th system tapping subtropical moisture - more likely a Gulf feed. The 18z GFS is pretty putrid, but it wouldn't take much for that to be stronger. Interestingly, the 12z GFS run just looked really amplified from the word "go." We have seen that from the GFS since November, ie a really bad tendency to over amplify all features on the map. I have to think there is a programming change for that to keep occurring. This 18z run looks a little more realistic.

The 18z GFS will unlikely have the big storm on the 17th as the cold front is not ingesting a tropical system from the Pacific! Haha. Still, I think we see some light snows traversing some portions of the forum. edit: Although, there still is Pacific feed to the Southwest of the front.

The AI Euro hasn't been terrible this winter, especially w/ surface features.

There should be snow in the air as early as tomorrow for areas north of I40 and Nashville eastward.

Haha. You all know I am not using chatGPT, because there are so many auto-correct spelling errors or careless errors. If those aren't present, I have been sucked into the singularity and there needs to be a well check.

The Euro deterministic didn't look terrible. Indeed, its ensemble is much different than other ensembles, BUT has trended towards the other cluster of ensembles (eastern intrusion of BN heights after the 20th) since yesterday. That tells me the EPS is probably still correcting. FWIW, the EPO ridge appears to have some staying power. I think the spacing and timing of the next three windows is incredibly important - 15th, 17th, and 20th. Amplified troughs will often over perform IMHO.

And also maybe 25-27th, but that may be getting over my skis at that range....but the ensembles are honking right about then.

I am also now watching Jan 20th as a window a bit more closely. Looks legit.

....and put the two together.

Yeah, the GFS and AIFS Euro are two models I would say that I don't trust that much! The ensembles have been decent so fare this winter though. I just thought they were some fun slow maps, but do show a storm track that I thought was interesting. Need the Euro on board at some point, but it may be slow to get this as it seems it was slow to get on board w/ something(can't remember) earlier this winter or late last fall.