Carvers Gap
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12z NAM....Later phase creates a flatter second wave...good trend. In general, the first wave was flatter as well. Precip shield w/ the first wave was about 6 counties south....barely got to the Ohio River Valley. With the second wave phasing later, that opens the window for the second slp to come in flatter. It would have been fun to see the rest of that run......out to say 150.
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Should be a later phase......I have no idea how that second wave is gonna look.
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Out to 63....it hasn't phased...the Baja is almost cutoff and just drifting.
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It keeps flirting with all-time record lows. Getting any models to show -20s in this area is remarkable.
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LOL. That...is...a...winner!
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Yes. That is what it looked like on the surface. The bulk of it comes out first. Now which model would be guilty of holding too much energy back?
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The 18z GFS said, “Bam the torpedoes. Full speed ahead!!!”
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All I can do for the GFS is just cheer it on. It is kind of like that kid(who has no business at the front) that manages to hang with the top milers for three laps. And then you are like, “Does he have one more lap in him?” Maybe. I hope. Sit and kick, baby!
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Wise statement.
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Analysis on the iPhone is about impossible. Looks like it sent out a good portion with the first wave which has been flatter on most models. It stays flat. Second wave was weake…almost had to stay flat. Hp perfectly positioned and didn’t slide in behind the second system that I can see. Most times the energy which is held back is stronger…but not always. Seeing it jog south is interesting.
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I will never say anything bad about the GFS again if that comes to fruition. My man is not giving up without a fight.
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Triples down.
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Weaker hp in the 18z GFS. Yet somehow it manages to be south of 12z. Did it send more energy out on the first wave?
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I am posting Weeklies maps for weeks 3-6. EPO ridge. NAO block. AN heights over Alaska. Are we watching winter hit and hold in the East? Maybe so. When you go back and look at -QBOs, you will quite regularly find some excellent winters. If this map holds, winter is just getting started. The Euro mean buries the forum. Precip is normal over E TN. There will be some talk that this is a Nino pattern. I don't think so. The core of BN temps is over the NE/MA and not SE. Don't use up all of your mental fuel with this weekend...we may have to pace ourselves this winter. January is well on track to now finishing BN or temps. Take a look at the 12z GEM-para if you have it....
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I am just glad it wasn't me who said it, because I certainly thought it!!!!!
