Carvers Gap
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I think with that Euro setup as is...it is going to try to split those two highs and head for the Lakes. What I can't know for sure is if the Euro is trending back stronger w/ the hp to the Northwest. The differences, even after that slide, grow pretty massively. The GFS is just weaker (but trending stronger) w/ the STJ pulse. I would really, really like to know which models got the bulk of the hurricane date overnight, and if one model didn't get it. To me the hp differences in the Plains look like a data error or absence of it...I just don't know which model is handling that hp over the Plains correctly. That feature is drastically affecting the overall synoptics of the storm.
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6z left. 0z right. 11mb difference(increase) in hp over Montana. Notice the system at 6z doesn't get as far north on this frame. It eventually gets there, but those are pretty big changes. HUGE difference between a 1028hp and 1039.
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Have to go further into the run.
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That loss of hp was seen across several models at 0z...and now poof...it is back on many. Trying to dig through this and see what the trend might be and what caused the iteration overnight.
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FWIW, the 6z RFS model which John uses is in the 6z GFS camp(shaky, shaky camp). It also handles the hp to the northwest of the system differently than the 0z Euro, but similarly to the 6z Euro. What the Euro is doing is basically settling into a seam between to highs to the north, one over New England and one over Montana. IF the Montana high is strong and bridges over to the New England high....the system slides on across. The 0z Euro completely lost the hp to the northwest of the storm...returned at 6z. I don't know. I am guessing that we are getting better sampling of the northern features as they get closer to us.
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I mean....the differences w/ hp over the top(especially nw of the system) from 0z to 6z are pretty startling. It was gone at 0z and is back on 6z. I have no idea why it wasn't there at 0z, and no idea why it is back at 6z.
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Substantial differences between the 0z and 6z Euro in regards to high pressure over the top. At 0z it lost it. At 6z, it's back. Not sure that changes the surface, but bizarre to see that big of a change from run to run. I'll post a thumbnail here in just a sec of the differences - majorly different. Probably why the 6z run was forced a hair south.
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I got you at 20" so far....HH FTW???
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Should be a good run. Slider.
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At 72, the surface pressure configuration is nearly identical to 18z.
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At 57 a big 1055 hp is pushing into eastern Montana and western N Dakota. Something may try to cut, but that dude is gonna have some say in that.
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I started using it after your rec. Good model.
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A little trick on wxbell...switch to mslp surface pressure and use the mouse over comparison. You can see the surface pressure about 10 mins before the surface output catches up.
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The 0z GFS is running...for those of you watching for trouble, post it here. You should be able to see differences almost right away.
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To clarify, I was comparing to 12z which is the last full run. The 18z didn't go all the way out. 0z is south of 12z.
