Carvers Gap

The risk of that cold air mass sits right outside of d10. The 12z GEM got to where the Euro did at 240...we just couldn't see the rest of the run. That would be something else. Still, I think we have some light snow chances prior to that...but if the GEM and Euro are correct, that would quiet the pattern after 240.

It is in fantasy land, but the end of that 12z Euro run is gonna get a lot of press if it can reproduce that tonight. The 12z GEM was flirting with it. With it being January, an EPO ridge in place, and blocking over the top....there is definitely a risk of very cold air getting trapped under that block and sent south. I don't see a clear signal yet, but deterministic runs are flirting with it. Not sure I want any part of that.

The 12z Euro traps a piece of the TPV. That is one thing we have noted as a possibility. Crazy cold at the end of that run.

Haha. Jinx. True. I posted about the same time as you. The BIG difference is the moisture feed is missing, but what a coup that would be as it has zero support from any other deterministic run. Let's see if any of the ensemble members of other models have that feed connected into the front.

Bout the same as it has been really. Interestingly, the 500 vort map for the 17th.....has a healthy little vortex in the eastern Pac just like the GFS. It didn't grab the moisture feed, but I found that interesting.

We had some light snow showers here as well this morning. The snow moved out about 10:00AM. About 5 minutes later, the wind started howling at 20-25mph sustained. I was out running and hit a headwind which slowed me down and about turned me into a popsicle. Wind chills are COLD! What a sharp contrast to last week.

Agree. What are your thoughts on the 17th system?

Here is the feature I am talking about. See this long arc of moisture feeding Into the Tenn and Ohio Valleys from the eastern Pacific. This is a southerly displaced Pineapple Express(loosely defined I freely admit). The Euro AIFS has had this from time to time. I just think this is not likely. HOWEVER, if the feed only tapped the Gulf...this is plausible and can't be ruled out. Scottie asked if the setup has precedent. I am actually going to change my answer. It does have precedent now that I can see this view, BUT really no other model(exception AIFS) has this. If there is any model that could score a weird coup, its is the GFS...but it just seems like an outlier at this point which has to be discounted (with system 2) until it gets some more support. It would be remarkable for the GFS to nail this....

This is the 15z NBM. It has definitely bump-ed up over the past 24 hours. The trend is our friend.

The 12z GEFS does bump-up totals w/ system #1 on the 15th. I have less of an issue w/ GFS synoptics w/ storm one. Though for certain it still seems a bit too amped. Again, the 12z GEM looks suspicious w/ so little precip resulting from a strong vortex. Hopefully, the Euro can give us a bit more perspective with the understanding it is often under-modeled at this range as a bias. I would use the NBM for right now for storm one.

And great avatar BTW!

FWIW, I do think the a coastal w/ the 17th front is plausible. I think the cold front driven snow is plausible provided the GFS drop the crazy PAC storm feed. So, I do think a front w/ a wave turning into a significant EC storm is very plausible.

I highly doubt there is precedent for Pacific tropical features (during mid January) feeding into a cold front over our area along the EC of North America. Webber mentioned yesterday(finally remembered my source) that it was a pretty awful job by the GFS. Maybe late fall that could happen? No other model has that. I think it is a pretty massive GFS error. In fact, the 12z GEM provides no support for either the 15th or 17th (GFS solution) whatsoever. I think the GFS has a pretty signifiant bias right now at over-amping everything at times. However, it can sniff out weather systems like this, because of that bias. For now though, I have the GFS as an outlier and at a level where it almost has to be tossed, but let's see if the Euro has something. What is plausible is a cold front tapping the Gulf, and I won't rule that out with the 17th system. Conversely, the GEM looks suspiciously anemic, and that would be a red flag for that model. A strong cold front w/ short waves in tow...should have some dynamics. The truth is probably somewhere in between the GEM and GFS at 12z.

But holy moly does that turn into a big blizzard along the EC, and that looks a bit more plausible given the spacing. Now, if we can get rid of the Pacific tropical feature, we could manage to get an inland runner???

Healthy looking second system on the GFS, BUT.....it is fooling around w/ that tropical PAC storm-ish feed again, and I think that is likely wrong. It allowed the back of the trough to hang back, and it catches that erroneous(?) feature again. I strongly encourage more support from other modeling before buying that scenario. I hope it scores the coup, but that just doesn't look like reliable synoptics or climatology. I would willing to buy that setup if someone could simply make a case for that being the Pineapple Express(aka atmospheric river hookup).