Carvers Gap

That control @Holston_River_Rambler. Delta from high to low...9! The good thing is the mean is negative. I actually favor the control run - wild swings likely. AO looks pretty much the same. This has gotta be that SSW moving things around. This also fits QBO climatology which favors HL blocking. Probably all of that is connected in some way.

I think models are in a huge state of flux right now. They were wrong about the Baja lows. They are wrong about over-doing too many NW Pac lows. They could be overdoing the Aleutian and/or NAO and/or AO HL blocking. We have seen modeling miss on HL blocking at exactly this time of year, but we have seen it score. Just too early to tell.

I am mainly confident, because recent Nina climatology suggests there will be 10-14 days of very cold temps sometime between week 2-4 of January. Plus, this seems to be one of those years where warm-ups get shortened as they draw closer. We are in the "warm-up" which was originally modeled to be anomalous. This morning, I was running in 30+mph winds with wind chills in the 20s. If the more aggressive models are correct, the warm-up may be confined to Dec 24-28th. Might be the most talked about warm-up ever to only amount to about 120 hours of AN temps. LOL. I hope that is what happens!!! I am pulling for the NAO to occur, because I am tired of talking about the MJO (no offense meant to those who like it...it is effective). So far, this has fit Nina climatology like a glove....

The Euro Weeklies are full bore winter in January. They have increasingly BN temps. That LR ext ensemble and the GEPS have broken towards cold today. We were waiting for ensembles to track....some good trends. In the case of the Euro Weeklies...great trends. 95-96(lite) and some 84-85 vibes as you all noted earlier in the thread.

The real fun with that is the NAO and Aleutian's highs bridge across the top. They trap a lobe of the TPV in NA. I think the biggest take away from 12z is that HL blocking is showing up across modeling, and the signal is stronger at 12z than yesterday at this time. Good trends.

Models have "likely" made two big errors this year. One was the Baja low situation for early December. The next one(appears as of now) was the repetitive lows sliding out of British Columbia to off the Coast of California. The Rex block might produce one or two storms on the West Coast...but not the sequence which was causing the endless chinooks. Even though modeling is still working things out....the exiting of feedback helps. Some chinook makes sense...but it was way overdone it appears. Now, is the NAO feedback? IDK. I have definitely witnessed years when models over-did how strong it was and missed the duration (sometimes too little duration...sometimes too much). The same could be said for the Aleutians high - but it has actual precedence for being there and at that intensity. I think we end up w/ a full latitude trough w/ cold dropping into Montana, modifying just a bit, and then heading eastward. I think the difference this year(compared to recent Nina winters), the source is much colder and this cold finds its way all the way to the Atlantic coast. I do suspect models could be too quick with the move back to cold, but again, sometimes they aren't quick enough if the NAO is going to be a player. The storm track could be more favorable as we enter January. As your friend notes, mid-Jan makes a bit more sense or even just the second week of January.

12z is definitely a choose your own adventure. Definitely NOT an easy pattern to model, but LIKELY to produce some interesting solutions on deterministic runs. Normally, I would say check the ensembles, but I think they are at least 24-36 hours behind the curve.

Haha. I am a time traveller.

I mean...really these are some WILD solutions. The 12z Euro is cooking one up as I type - doubtful it verifies. Good trends, but wild.

Even the Euro AIFS at 12z(which has been reluctant of late to budge) completely erases the chinook pattern. I think some version of a full latitude trough w/ some ridges/troughs sliding across the base...sure makes a lot of sense.

Between 180 and 240, the CMC completely erases any remnant of the chinook, and fills NA w/ BN temps again. Impressive if it is real.

12z CMC is on board and about 2-3 days quicker as it has been for a bit. The mechanics for cold an snow are in place around the new year if these trends hold

I suspect the 12z GFS is just a bit quick, but that is a potent winter weather pattern just after 300 that run. By the end of the run, the blues and reds are in the right places w/ split flow. That is a plausible(though certainly not certain) solution. Great trend if it sticks.

If the CFSv2 seasonal is right this morning, LC is could be set to score a pretty coveted seasonal win....and I mean an outright thumping. He dared to go the exact opposite of many seasonal ideas.