Carvers Gap

Yeah, I want the light blue hues over MBY.

The 18z AIFS Euro barely lets the eastern ridge build after the first retrograding cycle. It almost immediately retrogrades again into the Eastern Pac. The cold TPV sitting in the middle of the continent really won't let the ridge build over the East, and it squashes the SER. I am not seeing a tendency to retrograde the TPV into the West, not on the deterministic and not on the ensemble. The SER is going to try to flex, but IF the setup for the TPV is correct, I bet that trough is underdone. I hate to use a 360 map, but this is where models were originally showing the trough dumping into the West. Do you see a trough in the West? This is a TPV dominant pattern if it verifies, and that vortex could possibly rule the roost if real. The other trend I am seeing is the tendency for HL blocking to lock it in place which would prevent a retreat across the pole once in place. Let's see if this verifies. I am making NO promises this is legit as modeling has been "you know what" most of the winter at this range. This look is very common on many models. When modeling starts to key on major patterns like this, it can score at range.

18z GEFS stuff...

Some big dogs on the ensemble member group.

The 18z GEFS is bumping up the snow mean just a bit. Its ensemble continues to cool quite a bit.

Pretty good look pattern coming up. I think some in the forum scores...even if just a light event. I mean there are kind of two camps: a big dog or just bunches of small, northern events.

I legit am kicking around trying to find my way to the Sierra Nevadas (sooner than later) for an atmospheric river event. Vegas flights are cheap, but the drive....Reno is the best, but the connectors can be a problem.

Good to have you back in here, man!!! Hopefully you are feeling better. It looks like we are gonna be needing u very soon w/ the pattern shaping up. The real story right now(in addition to the Jan 11-21 window), is the sharp cooking across ensembles d10+. It wasn't there this morning. But -10 to-15 departures at this range is interesting. I gotta think some type of blocking is showing up...maybe a slower moving retrograding high, less prominent SER, OR as I suspect, the air mass in central Canada is gonna be legit and run the show.

The 12z EPS and GEPS are cold. The GEPS is next level and probably has some usual cold bias in play. The usually warm EPS...is picking up a very cold signal after the 20th as is the GEPS. Remember, "normal" gets it done at this time of year. I think the sharp cooling by ensembles might be driven by the NAO. My short warmup after the 21s might be in trouble. All ensembles are signaling a gradient pattern incoming.

Give me that pipeline continuing w/ the incoming trough from the 11th-21st, and let's roll.

On another note, I sure hope JB referenced @GaWx w/ his phase 6 "isn't always warm" backtrack(from warmth) post. Did he? If he didn't, he needs to.....

A great trend is the "re-stocking" of cold for NA. During many recent La Ninas, NA would get emptied of cold, the trough would drop into the West, and winter was over outside of the Rockies. I really don't see that pattern at all right now. If anything, winter may just be getting started.

The 12z Euro is one small, wintry system after another for our forum area. It has some nice systems embedded. I would be surprised if some in the forum don't score 1-2x w/ this trough... The Euro is loaded up as well.

And I will certainly take what the 12z GEM is cooking up as well. Lots of snow showers and cold between Jan 15-20th. I "think" we end up seeing an organized system come out of this, but several days of over-running(not heavy) is possible.

Yes, it pops a low as well. The AIFS version would likely be extended upslope over a large area...some mix or rain possible depending on time of day. With the amplitude of that trough, the likelihood of something "spinning up" is higher than normal.