Carvers Gap
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Basically was the same run repeated. Very little difference. And that is hopefully a continuing trend.
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Some Kuchera, ice, and sleet maps for the 18z Euro...
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When the AIFS and Euro get close to a similar solution...that is a good thing. Very slight trend south on the 18z Euro...50 miles? Looks like maybe some coastal backing to boot.
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Here are two slides. The second slide is when the map cuts off.
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Thank you! And that is still mid-storm. It is still snowing over the entire forum area at that hour (144).
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The 12z map is almost identical. I will grab one in a minute if someone else doesn't post it. Just remember, the 18z is still mid-storm when that map cuts off. Maybe take 50 miles off the north side - maybe.
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Basically a repeat of 12z. Consistency and a big run which stops at 144.
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If the Euro locks in over the next 2-3 runs along w/ the EPS....I think that is a very good thing. I have learned never to speak in absolutes in this hobby. Arrogance would be a pathway to egg on my face!
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It isn't optimism. It is the 18z Euro. Boom.
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Most of that in the forum area is frozen. Some of you might sneak above freezing for a bit. Snow or ZR. Trended south. I threw in the both full run and storm clown map if you wanted it.
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I don't think so.
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The 18z AIFS (entire run) buries portions of the forum...and I don't take that term lightly. No idea if it is right, but wow.
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The 18z AIFS is a major snow an ice storm for the Tennessee Valley region...end to end.
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I know we are all focuses on this upcoming weekend...but the 18z AIGFS and GFS absolutely bury most of the forum area after next weekend.
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I am just digging back through my images archives. Here are some good ones. (BTW, the 18z GFS buries the forum over the next 16 days)..... Now you know why I like the Euro Weeklies control run. It potentially(if this storm verifies) hit the Jan 25th time frame from 30 days out - the day after Christmas! The AIFS hit it at 360. The GFS hit it earlier that the image, but its 288 map is uncanny with possibly near perfect BN heights. The EPS absolutely nailed the d10-15 over-running window - I just didn't post that image. Hopefully, this gives us some historical reference as we look back at what worked and what didn't from a LR modeling perspective. The GEPS was probably the first ensemble to really stick and hold w/ the overall look at 500.
