Carvers Gap

Cold rain here, but....the GFS did nail the deformation band over NE TN. Unfortunately, the thermals not so much!

It appears the 12z GFS will have the anafront on Christmas Eve. Only 60 more runs to go. What could go wrong?!

I think a lot of this is just fighting climatology. Again, and I sound like a broken record...it is really rare to track snow prior to mid-December at lower elevations. The higher elevations above 2500'...that is a different story. For most of us, we just recently exited meteorological fall. Our best climatology is mid-Jan to early-Feb. So, we are about 5-6 weeks away from best climatology IMBY. That said, the RGEM, NAM, and GFS all show light snow this weekend. In some cases there are two chances. Nothing big, but mood stuff. Higher elevations could score 1-3" of snow.

RadarScope is changing over to mix over the northern TRI. It mostly rain, but I can see mix on the windshield. This is early for that.

This if for roughly the same time frame. The 6z GFS, 0z EPS, and 0z CMC. Let's see if the Euro deterministic is leading a change. For now, the ensembles are not there. The 6z Euro looked like it would have been cold. Time will tell. I certainly am no fortune teller!

For ONLY kicks and giggles, let's see if the 6z GFS can hit the half court shot on Christmas Eve.

The 0z EPS has a much different solution than any other global ensemble including the AIFS. The GEFS, GEPS, and AIF still have the cold shot next weekend. The 6z GFS has a the Christmas Eve cold shot(which really could go either way). I think the widely diverse solutions are due to the various MJO solutions. The EURO at range has struggled so far during late fall and winter. It certainly is good enough to score a coup, but it erroneously called for the beginning of December to be warm(after the weeklies had it cold). I would suspect there is a severe cold shot headed into the Lower 48. Things get scrambled when that happens.

The 6z GFS has returned to a much colder look. The 0z Euro is definitely warmer after mid-month. Its ensemble is not as much. Both the 0z GEPS and 0z GEFS are not warm. I think the warm-up looks to be set just after mid month. But there is this on the LR GFS, and take with a huge grain of salt...a major league anafront. This would be a nightmare or travel. You don't have to guess what the weather looks like under that. Lots of uncertainty after the 20th, so we'll see.

Basically, the December 1995 pattern would repeat later that winter, but with better climatology in place for cold air to make it to this latitude and hold. IMBY(not the folks at elevation), we are fighting climatology every step of the way right now. It eases up after Dec 10th or so, and becomes more favorable with each day. When I first started tracking, I rarely tracked during the first 20 days of December. But if this pattern were to repeat during the second half of winter, I think the cold presses more. Now, the STJ is inactive...so northern stream systems are gonna have to do the trick. I still think we have a shot to score before this breaks just short of Christmas. One caveat, this may not break down before Christmas. Some MJO plots are stalled through the end of the month and into early January on the left side of the MJO. Also, modeling tends to break down patterns a bit too early. That said, a New Year's thaw seems realistic. If it is twenty below w/ five feet of snow...you can look back on this comment and thank me for it!

The Euro Weeklies this evening strongly hint at a 95-96 type of progression. Warmup around Christmas. Cold returns mid-Jan or just after. That also fits the pattern of recent winters. The good thing about all of this...eastern portions of the forum have missed w/ the second cold shot during recent Nina winters. I doubt that happens this winter. I think the cold in later January pushes to the coast. Just a hunch.

The talk about the trough being flat and displaced eastward got me to thinking - I know, dangerous! But that displaces western ridge(which leads to a very cold NE) will sometimes retrograde. If it does so slowly enough, we can hit the sweet spot at 500 OR if a system will cut one time. Any type of cutter right now is going to send very cold air south.

Totally got the shaft, man. I would drive home and be amazed. Now, Knoxville wasn't half bad. I remember driving around behind West Town Mall in my front-wheel-drive w/ everything covered in snow. Knox Co had to develop a new snow day, make-up plan after that winter. That extra 30 minutes kids go each day....started that year. But what TRI got was insane. I would see the snow around Jearoldstown Rd on my way up 81, and the parking lots were just stacked with snow piles. After the second storm, it was wild. We will see another winter like that. I can't wait to track it. 14-15 was good though. So, I kind of feel like I got my money back with that winter.

What happens with the above pattern, and I need to look at this more carefully(roll the tape forward if you will), all of that retrogrades. You get a window when a pattern like this retrogrades where we get a goldilocks 500 pattern.

December 1995. Notice the eastwardly displaced ridge and trough setup? This isn't a perfect match, but I found it interesting, even with the Bering Sea hp. Notice the cold in the Yukon? But overall, the similarities are kind of striking. And now look at the 30 day forecasts from the Euro Weeklies, GFS Weeklies, and CFSv2. Now, I am not saying this is going to be 95-96 as a winter, but it could be a light version. That winter didn't mean business until mid-late Jan through mid-Feb. As CoachB noted(think that was him), that winter wasn't overly cold, but it snowed during a four week time frame every, single time it got cold. I pulled this up, because CPC keeps double weighting it in their d8-14 analogs.

I think our next trackable system is around Dec 11th - very light NE TN, SE KY, SW VA, possible Plateau. Then, I think our best chance will be around Dec 14th. As long as that cold front presses into our area w/ full force, I think we likely see frozen precip then. The 18z GFS shows the potential for that one. It is running as we speak.