Carvers Gap

So Storm Vista has the Google AI model w/ the hobby plan?

Do we dare wish for and earlier phase? I see Baja energy…

Did that phase? Sure like a partial phase. Not sure there is much room to jog northwest, but the pieces are there for a storm. That strong are of BN heights can sometimes (often times?) trigger snow along the front. If it grabs a piece of STJ energy - good things.

Kind of wonky synoptics, but as @tnweathernutmentioned…we may be exiting the window where models lose stuff. Seems like the GFS has something similar. If I had to guess…that area of very BN heights is causing the disturbance. 85 had similar occurrences where very cold air masses spawned snow storms.

Thank you. All is good!

If you just need to live vicariously....The Broncos vs Patriots game has gone from sunshine to near blizzard conditions. The cold is here for a bit!

But declaring a winter a dud on Jan 25 is JI worthy, especially with a winter storm in progress. LOL.

Yeah, man. I agree. While 2/3 of the forum is currently under a winter storm warning...not the time to be calling winter a dud. Just ride the wave.

Winter isn't over.

Thursday and the weekend have to be watched.

The 6z GFS is one small system after another…lots of NW flow. Prob favors NW flow areas, but I would assume there are some chances as Feb climatology will fight the dry pattern IMHO.

It is possible, but unlikely in February IMHO. I mean, we are in the middle of an ice storm right now w/ rain in the East. I suspect we see several, small northern stream systems. No model is gonna have details correct outside of 7 days...just generally a 500 pattern. Cosgrove things another storm in the south next weekend is possible. He says the cold and stormy pattern continues. He is batting a thousand right now. This current storm moved the precip line almost 500 miles in three model runs.

West of I-81 in TRI...we need temps to get above freezing ASAP. Lots of ice building up w/ a steady train of more precip inbound.

0.1-0.15 ice accretion so far. Trees are glistening and well as the power lines.

The 12z ensembles(EPS, GEPS) and 18z ensembles(AIFS-EPS, GEFS) all have a trough over the east for most of their runs with maybe a 2-3 respite. The Euro Weeklies continue that pattern well into February and maybe even early March. The MJO-CPC is basically stalled in cold phases through mid-Feb when those runs end. It looks likely that our cold and wintry pattern continues for a time - no guarantees. IF that verifies, we all may be ready for spring when it finally arrives.