Carvers Gap

Yeah, that is a pretty big pattern reversal being shown across 12z modeling. Both the 12z GFS and Euro are close to something decent. At the very least, winter temps are back on the map by next Sunday....and then more thereafter. It is uncanny how close that is to this last cold evolution from Christmas to January 11th.

Bitterly cold air is potentially making it into the pattern by late next weekend. I am see BZ wind chills for the mountains and single digit or low teens for the valleys. With strong amplification involved....I have to think we are about to see some sort of repeat of late January - at least the possibility is growing.

U all been looking at model output over the last three runs?.......................

For me, it looks like a potentially big cold shot coming at some point during March. That isn't really earth shattering news, but just trying to time it is going to be the tough part. The CFSv2 has it at 6z and the Euro Weeklies mean has March being progressively colder. You all know your own climatology. Folks in NE TN and the Plateau can score well into early April. March snow is not an anomaly IMBY, though it has been during La Nina. I am really excited that maybe this summer won't be ridiculously hot w/ the onset of El Nino and same for fall. Jury is out on next winter. If the El Nino is moderate or strong, I will roll w/ a torch for DFJ. If it is weak, I will roll with December warm, and January and February seasonal but snow chances. The strength of the El Nino is crucial. Sometimes lately, even a weak El Nino is torchy here.

The 0z Euro was really amplified towards the end of the month. I think there is a window there from say Feb 24-March10. It fits the pattern we have seen all winter. Warms up here. Mammoth gets blitzed. We get a brief cold shot which is followed by another short warm-up....then the hammer comes down for a couple of weeks.

The 18z GFS yet again advertises a snow storm inside of d10 around Feb 21....slider.

The Sierra Nevada got hammered on Christmas. 18 days later, we went into the tank w/ temps. I think we get colder a bit sooner than that, but check this out... Mono County- Including the cities of Lee Vining, Bridgeport, Mammoth Lakes, and Coleville 1106 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow accumulations between 15 to 30 inches west of Highway 395, with 2 to 4 feet in the high Sierra. This includes locations such as Conway Summit, Lee Vining, June Lake, Mammoth Lakes, and Toms Place. 8 to 18 inches near and east of Highway 395, such as Bridgeport, Walker, Bodie, and Benton. Lesser amounts of 2 to 4 inches for the Chalfant Valley. Winds gusting 35 to 45 mph, with up to 65 mph for wind prone locations along US-395. Sierra ridge gusts over 100 mph.

The 18z GFS(and GFS in general) has been trying to cook something up. As we approach shoulder season, it is a vastly more competitive as a model.

I think the cold is just on the outside edge of deterministic guidance. On an interesting note, and so I don't have to post twice, @John1122the Sierra Nevada is about to get absolutely hammered. The Mammoth webcams should be incredible. Some models are spitting out 200-300" over the next 16 days depending on the run and model. That is good for them as fire season would be terrible in the Sierra without water. I am sure they are thrilled. Interestingly, we got very cold about 2-3 weeks after their big Christmas snows.

I should add that spring is tricky as the 500 pattern would allow for more severe cold(reference maps above), but eventually spring will win. Not as much of a sure bet as say the post Thanksgiving cold shot and January cold shot were. We still have lakes and ponds which are frozen up here. I still have snow on the north side of my house.

The Weeklies are cold from week 3 onward - I wouldn't even say 50-60s seasonal stuff. Looks to me like highs in the 40s for many. I would assume most understand we aren't getting January temps in late February or March - LOL. But the Weeklies this afternoon are a slog. Maps are referenced above. Same, exact signal as the past two cold shots. I would put a target date from just after Feb 21 to the end of March(or earlier). I do think winter hangs on longer than most are gonna want it to...especially after this warm-up gets everyone ready for spring. I highly doubt NE TN and your area are done for the season. I would never guarantee anything...but the pattern itself would yield cold. I would suggest it may well be significantly colder than seasonal, but still a ways to go before getting too specific on my part. They were cold enough this afternoon that I was digging up the Pisgah snow analogs for May of 92. I think a lot of folks who are new to the region haven't seen what March can do in Tennessee as we have flipped warm during so many recent springs. I am not saying we go to that place this March...but I have certainly seen March be a winter month. This has been a winter where we have thought it ended multiple times. Does it have one last gasp? Maybe. I am gonna make one early call...I think fall comes early.

In the words of the great Yogi Berra, "It's like deja vu all over again." Here are some maps from the Weeklies which just ran....The first three are control runs. The last is the ensemble 500 map. Snow signal is showing up at the end of February and into early March. This model has been pretty consistent with that look. This is not a warm look, and this is what we were seeing similar to the last two cold air masses which came into the eastern half of the US. Could winter be over? Sure. But there are multiple examples of winter which just kind of hangs on...similar to endless summer.

I wish I could be optimistic and say that winter is over....nope. The Weeklies are bleak when it comes to cold returning(meaning a very cold March and last week of February). I think we are seeing the same pattern repeat itself. Strong cold shot, 2-3 week warm-up....wash, rinse, repeat. The coldest temps are just outside of the range of deterministic models at this point. Now, could the weeklies be wrong? For sure. Some winters break for spring exactly like this. But the Weeklies tend to suggest that winter hangs on, and probably more than most would like.

It looks to me like next weekend is a weak slp pushes west of the Apps and then transfers to the inland Plain of GA or the Carolinas. Blizzard setup for the Northeast. If we can get a cleaner pass, that is money here as well. Ensembles have energy to the west of the Apps w/ a transfer to an inland runner.

Really good look next weekend....there is a low in the lakes which is messing w/ thermals....but there is time for that to adjust. NE TN needs to watch this one, and especially SW VA.