87storms

Yea we’re no longer waiting on the wheelhouse…we’re in it now. March is right around the corner, which is kinda wild. This season has been trucking along.

I'm getting tired of tracking this system...is it gonna snow or not?

I'm only at around 350', but the elevation rises considerably as soon as I head north from my neighborhood. I've noticed that in some of the recent marginal events, locations around 600-700' near the base of Gambrill will have basically nothing, but once you get up to 1000', any light rain/mix will change to snow. It's kinda wild how much of a difference the top of the Watershed is compared to the base of that mountain. Even though downtown Frederick is relatively low elevation, I think the fact that it's in a valley and surrounded by some of the ridges to the south, helps with these setups.

Oh yea, it's a thing. That area is a microclimate.

This feels like one of those storms where Rockville could get a few inches while dc is mixing. Darnestown/Germantown is also another snow magnet that seems to do significantly better than Rockville…at least back in the day. I’m still learning about Frederick, but maybe this is the storm where I finally benefit from this move in the snow department.

Just keep in mind that each isotherm line has a positive slope because air generally cools with height. It’s a little counter intuitive at first. You also don’t want the parcel at the mid level heights to poke through the 0C line (ie, where melting occurs) for too long.

lol, I wonder how much sleet is really gonna be at play with this one. Seems like mostly a rain or snow situation, but I could be wrong.

It’s dicey up here, too. I’m kinda surprised at the model snow output, all things considered…but I’ll take it.

I don’t hate having the 8.9” value directly over my place.

Tell them the closer we get to the storm the less the uncertainty, and the curve on a graph takes on the look of a reciprocal function. And the overall happiness meter after each model run during the winter (theta = 90 degrees = 6z increments) is the output of the function y=sin(theta).

The 12z and 18z model suite might be the most important runs in the last 2 years.

That follow-up wave is becoming the main show. It's actually a hecs-level looking vort lol. If we can get that to trend south, then it's game on.

I gotta think areas closer to the M/D line are in good shape...I'm actually not really even that concerned up here (though I probably should be lol). I think it's the 95 corridor that is going to be the most challenging forecast. I grew up in Silver Spring, so I know exactly what that's all about.

LWX mentioned in their disco this morning what one of my concerns was and that's an onshore/return flow prior to the system arriving. That primary setup has been shown the last couple days with the hp moving off the mid-Atlantic. I think that's going to make it difficult for areas further east. Further west, we're gonna need to rely on CAD, but I could picture that being an issue, too, until you get to the higher elevations. And I'm not saying this because I think I'm right, but I agree with you that (at least through my hobbyist tracking) that this wasn't a clean setup. Hopefully, most of us can at least get some snow on the front end while the antecedent conditions allow for it...from there, roll the dice.

I add significant points to daytime snow.

It needs to cover grass or it’s a bust…it’s the law of the land with southern stream systems, though I make exceptions to rogue grass blades and sticks.

lol. I should have been more realistic and said if they lose by less than 20.

Yea, it looks like a classic overrunning event, but that 540 line is up there, no? Maybe I'm underestimating the amount of caa in place.

I actually didn't like the 18z run even with the output. The H5 setup looks sketchy, to say the least. Really gonna need the cad to do its thing...which is possible.

The 540 line is near Detroit this run...what could possibly go wrong.

Just snagged a hike at Weverton and up the AT a bit to around 1200’, which was a reminder that the Frederick Watershed really gets up there at 1600’ (at least for this area, it’s a pretty decent elevation).

There’s too many streaming services these days.

Just noticed that it’s on Peacock lol. How stupid is that.

If the Terps win tonight, 0z will cave to a snowier solution.

It’s gonna tell us, “0z will be telling.”