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87storms

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Everything posted by 87storms

  1. 87storms
    Still hardly any wind of note, but the milder air has made an appearance. It was chilly most of the day here.
  2. 87storms
    Yea we're en route to 2". Very efficient rain. The lack of wind is odd, though. I'm looking out my window and the trees are basically not moving lol. I was just out, too, and it wasn't really all that breezy. Maybe the valley is keeping that at bay for now.
  3. 87storms
    Barely any wind up here so far, but easily the best overall rain I’ve seen in a year. We’ve had a few decent events the last few months, but it seems like Frederick has consistently been on the lower end of areawide totals. This one is a true drought denter.
  4. 87storms
    Under absolutely no circumstances do we want to be in the bullseye at a week out. Forecasting has come a long way, but not that far. It's also a logical flaw to assume that a storm will all of a sudden stop trending once it bullseyes our area. That line of thinking turned into a failure with the last storm, for most of the area. Track the cold and monitor vorts. Well, that's my strategy at least.
  5. 87storms
    Frederick is doing pretty decent with this system so far. ~0.5" areawide. Looks like a little less further east.
  6. 87storms
    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24&dim=1
  7. 87storms
    Precip/waves aren’t our issue. We do that generally well. It’s either cold enough or it's not…simple as that. I’m all in on tracking blocking. Without that, it’s a struggle to even get a clipper.
  8. 87storms
    For whatever reason, the upper level flow has been subpar for nearly 2 years now. I don’t know a lot, but I’m able to tell a quality h5 pattern and I haven’t really seen one yet. I know the 540 thickness doesn’t need to be under us to snow if we have an infiltration of cold at the lower levels, but we can’t get a high pressure to stay locked in when we need it. Maybe next week will start a better trend.
  9. 87storms
    That's the elusive look.
  10. 87storms
    The recent rains are definitely a consolation prize to the lack of snow. I'm actually kind of interested in the line moving through Tuesday evening.
  11. 87storms
    I need to see a vort sliding under our lat with a high pressing in across the GL and northeast. Yesterday’s setup was mucked up by the vort unraveling into the upper midwest prior to the surface low developing. With the mild waters the mid levels are getting warm nose’d almost every storm it seems.
  12. 87storms
    March is gonna be epic... March Madness, that is.
  13. 87storms
    I'm starting to get winter of 2018/19 vibes where we weaseled our way to the snow mean by playing the numbers game in an active pattern. Overall, it's just not cold enough. I'm not even sure I really want to track another one of those brief snow to mix/rain events anymore. There's been too many of those the last couple years. My goal right now is a 4-6" snowstorm...no sleet...just a simple storm like early January 2022.
  14. 87storms
    You make a valid point. Fine, I'll track it.
  15. 87storms
    I don’t know if I trust a midweek digital snow, though maybe that’s the new norm.
  16. 87storms
    Another gullywasher arriving Tuesday, too.
  17. 87storms
    Yea, I think ultimately we needed a fresh Canadian hp, not an antecedent airmass, at least for this particular setup. This was a useful trial run, though.
  18. 87storms
    Just took a timely walk because midway through it started mixing with sleet and was all pingers by the time I got home.
  19. 87storms
    It’s pretty wintry out there right now. Snow is sticking to everything here. Millvillewx mentioned the valley here can do a good job holding the cold in and that’s exactly what’s happening so far.
  20. 87storms
    Hagerstown area always seemed like the prime spot for this one.
  21. 87storms
    Still crystal’ing in Frederick. Mostly light/steady. Contemplating a stroll before the inevitable flip.
  22. 87storms
    Steady snow with healthy dendrites here in Frederick…just north of 15.
  23. 87storms
    Snow/sleet mix in Frederick and accumulating. Roads are getting nasty.
  24. 87storms
    Snuck a trip in to Beans and Bagels. Just a sleet mix here. 30F on my car gauge. It is cold…maybe the heavier stuff will consist of that elusive white stuff.
  25. 87storms
    I see a winter storm warning and 6-12” lol. They’re probably on the line, but will clearly benefit from a more mature lp off the coast.
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