cbmclean

Ok, I think its time to move on.

31 minutes ago, NCSUGrad said:

Greg is a good guy. He took off to Florida for a while but now is back in the region and very well may be a reader of these boards. I hope the above comment is deleted.  

Wherever he is and whatever he is doing, I wish him well.  He is missed.

9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yes?

Please lower your snow shields.

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

That WRAL graphic is from the “European ensembles which is one of their exclusive products”.   I’m surprised they are even showing that much. When Fishel was the chief they were much more conservative until 2-3 days out.  

Completely off topic, but with the passage of time did anything ever come out about why Greg Fisher left?  I still miss him.

32 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That is a crazy step towards a MECS up into the sub-forum lat. Still a bit off, but the delay in s/w out west was beginning to allow enough time for the TPV over Quebec to move out and provide spacing for northward movement. A crazy shift in the setup for this run. It opens the door for a lot of possibilities, but we still need more confirmation from the ensembles to see if this COULD be a trend, or a blip on the radar. 

Verbatim, it's a potentially historic storm for NC and Upstate SC. Absolutely insane for them

I abscond.

28 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2000_North_American_blizzard

TL;DR: surprise snowstorm

Oh I'm ashamed of of myself.  That storm is legendary in my neck of the woods.

44 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

There has to be a strong correlation between Jan 2000 references and mood downturns in this forum

What exactly happened in Jan 2000?

Wintercane!!!

20 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Not sure about the rest of you, but I'm definitely seeing the back edge of this upcoming promising period and feeling the need to deb everyone up. Yeah!

I've been waiting for the collapse.  We've been riding too high the last several days.

11 minutes ago, frd said:

 

LOVE this animation posted by Griteater.  Pretty incredible to imagine the possibilities ahead.  

 

s

At first I thought that was the Ensemble mean and got really excited.

5 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I sure hope the long range thread is for real and not another pump-and-dump scam like some previous winters. You all are as bad as StockTwits sometimes 

It's just a fact that all weenies have to live with that an advertised great pattern can collapse and evaporate at any time.  Funny how that never seems to happen to forecasted bad patterns.  They can show up at 384 hours and march relentlessly closer day after day.  Such is the life.

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Great post PSU. It is amazing how you can make my comment from just a few minutes before you seem quite worthless in comparison.

If those are the kinds of posts he puts out when he is busy I'd hate to see what he does when he has time on his hands.

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

That is very encouraging. I know that pac has been a huge problem for us for quite a while!

The Pac base state has been hostile for either the last 5 or 6 winters so its nice to see that take a vacation, hopefully an extended one.  If I remember correctly, the Pac jet relaxed somewhat in early/mid Feb of last year and lo and behold there was the historic plains cold outbreak of 2021.  Now obviously we didn't get the cold that time, but the point is the Pac jet will just leave us alone, we can still sometimes get cold in this hemisphere.

40 minutes ago, Amorphous Iodine said:

Would someone please moderate the LR/MR thread?  Just start banishing them for 24 hours or something.  Heck, I volunteer if you show me how.

You know there is an ignore function, right?

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

But isn't that the scene just before all his plans explode into a roaring ball of flame?  What are you implying? Panic!

18 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

You did a much better job than me talking him off the ledge. Are you a hostage negotiator? 

I just understand how the passion for cold/snow can get very powerful and sometimes unhealthy, like any other passion can sometimes be.  Just one of those things that some people have to deal with.  Sometimes the unhealthy energy can be harnessed for productive purposes.  For example a drive to learn about weather.

2 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Just lack of ridge out west

Not to mention the lack of any NAO support.  The upcoming pattern looks like our old friend cold&dry/warm&wet.  I'll take it though over the crap we just passed through.  

@Maestrobjwa

I understand your feelings.  Being a life-long North Carolinian I am used to snowlessness.  But long periods of anomalous warmth like what we just went through really get me down.  I think its OK to feel that way to some extent, but it's also important to try to fight it some as well. 

One big rule I think though is never try to share your displeasure when others are trying to enjoy their happiness.  It's just not fair to them.

Also don't forget that the Panic Room is back up and running.  That thread is meant for venting.

I'm sincerely rooting for you to cash in on Friday!

Light flurries in Wilson.  37 F.

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The NAM can sometimes score a coup.  I can remember a few times it was the ONLY model showing something and that happened.  The problem is it's so inconsistent and unreliable and goes off on tangents with feedback issues and problems with chasing exponential errors...that you have no idea when its on to something or just being the NAM.  On the whole it probably just adds more confusion and stress even if once in a while its right.  

At one time it seemed like the NAM was especially good at sniffing out warm noses at the midlevels that would so often crush dreams for us SE weenies.  Not sure if that is still true or not.

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I really hope they go all in and make the FV3 based short range ensemble package a worthwhile tool because the idea is really good they just totally failed in the execution with the SREF and the HRRR.  

I was under the impression that the SREF and the HRRR were primarily intended for forecasting warm-season sever weather.  Maybe they are more useful there.

31 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

So you were just throwing a turd in the punch bowl.  

Please do not judge all visitors from NC by that post.

7 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

before the normies hear about this.

Maybe we can call them "muggles".

23 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Charles de Gaulle would approve. 

 

 

 

 

That wins the thread awards for Most Obscure Historical Reference.

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Disaster for what?

 

 

They are talking about the Friday system currently looking way SE on the latest GFS.