cbmclean

GFS exploding on the MA peeps.  They're going bonkers over there.

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Realistically, Tuesday. I’ve tentatively explored flights for tomorrow if things were to shift fully forwards a GFS-esque event overnight but I’m probably not willing to make the $500 investment. Probably.

Just curious, what are you up to in San Juan.  My wife and I honeymooned there.  Great town.  Good food.  Not good for snow.

The MA weenies are dragging this N with sheer will power.

26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I wanna hear someone defend this model.

Well it actually looked quite similar between the two time stamps, with the exception of the glaringly obvious snow shield.  I would love to know the details of what happened in the math of the model.

37 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I'm right near Baltimore, and I do recall a VERY COLD stretch of weather at the very end of December/beginning of January in 2017/2018. It didn't escape the 20s for like 10 consecutive days. I think there were a couple days in the teens as well. I specifically remember it because a major lake nearby froze completely over. Honestly the last memorable winter event I can remember. 

Probably the favorite weather event of my life so far.  Had shore ice developing at the Outer Banks.  Lakes froze over in Wilson which is in the NC coastal plain.  Hit 0F at my house one night after a snow.

So history lesson time.  What is the beef between PSU and Vice-Regent?

50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He only cares about hunting for the big dogs. He gets so many 1-3" events it's like a passing flurry to him.

He's still digging out at Mt. PSU from last year.

2 hours ago, gopper said:

PSU playing it low today.  Guess he expects to be "fringed".  Or he is enjoying NYE already.

Selfishly spending time with his family instead of obsessing over model runs.  Disgraceful.

25 minutes ago, ChillinIt said:

CRAS is AMPED & Juiced!!!

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/index_ref_m_loop.html

What the neck is the CRAS?

54 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Channeling your inner @ravensrule

I had the exact same thought.

I hate that for you man.

The potential storm aside, any thoughts about the mid-long term pattern?  Seems as if the GEFS was maybe backing away from the ledge a bit on an immediate return to the "Arctic Low" regime perhaps?

3 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Someone had to start it.  70 degree Christmas and New Years....off to a good start.    

It's just not right without the reaper.

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But the pac looks good…isn’t that what everyone wanted???

Just for educational purposes, what is the mechanism for the warm air in the conus with that look?  I assume that there is a AK vortex and I know that "cuts off the cold air" but how?  As someone else mentioned the streamlines are straight from the Northwest Territories.  Not questioning the model's math, just seeking to understand the mechanics.

2 hours ago, H2O said:

This was the only boat I could find 

You're gonna need a bigger boat.

Sigh; GFS on an island.  Can it score a coup?

17 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Still say watch 1-08.. no negative anomalies in the arctic

Chuck, I have to ask where you get your plots.  Its like you tap directly into the GFS mainframe or something.

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS is a lot different from 12Z EPS…so I guess we will find out in a couple of weeks which is correct…

 

Hello Pac Puke, my old friend...

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Maryland football clearly misses the ACC…

I always thought that theove was a bad idea for them.  I guess the siren song of the $$$ was too much to resist.

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But the ICON pretty much made the same move.

Ok, I’m back in.

Hope springs eternal.

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Maybe it is over.  Who knows.  Not me or really anyone else.  There are a lot of prognosticators on twitter that will have to redact some predictions made couple weeks ago that’s for sure.

I have started following 3 of the twitterati lately who seem knowledgeable and not too hypish: Griteater, Webberweather, and Dr. Simon Lee. Grit and Webber still see some reason for hope.  Dr  Lee seems neutral right now.

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

No one would call it a winter in late Dec.  that would be insane even for us 

I believe it was Dec 30th of 2019 when PSU made his famous post.  It was a doozy, and it turned out to be 100% accurate.  I have bad dreams about that post.

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well the 12z eps went along with the op.

But hey it’s a +pna…I hope people don’t complain when it’s still 50* due to the fact the high latitude pattern went to crap!  

Look at that, nice Aleutian low, +pna, great pac, and we’re torching.  Because a +++AO will offset the pac the same way a - - -pna will offset a -AO. 
 

Do I sense it's getting close to a "towel time" post?

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Winter is over...just don't see it. Not even trackable threat yet and the lr looks bleak. We only have so much time

@WxWatcher007 Need to come out of retirement for a special event.

15 hours ago, Spartman said:

Interesting tweet from Dr. Simon Lee regarding about a potential Alaskan Ridge around the middle third of this upcoming January:

 

 

The GEFS just got mean today.  The "Alaskan Ridge" signal greatly diminished since yesterday.  A majority of the members banking on continued domination of the "Arctic Low" regime, which is the mess we are in right now.

https://simonleewx.com/gefs-35-day-north-american-regimes/