cbmclean

1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Not liking this 384hr GFS

Looks like my composite of top 20 years where PNA dominated Dec 1 - Jan 3 rolled forward

I have a slight +PNA signal starting around Jan 15th, but February is starting to look like it might turn out warmer, especially if that verifies

Oh crap.

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So … it’s not gonna snow now?

Only the Sith deal in absolutes.

With the exception of @H2O.  We can all be certain that he will never see snow again.

Latest MJO update from CPC is out and it fits in disturbingly well PSU's concern.

See slide 2 last bullet

• While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS, extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North America.

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE the problems with the pacific base state have been beaten to death. But my point, and Ji I think, was that occasionally when the pac is not THAT bad and the pattern should be “ok” the SE ridge is still going nuts. This panel is a good example. 

No the pac isn’t “good” there but it it’s not a train wreck either.  Honestly that’s likely as good as we can hope for in the current base state.  The pacific ridge is poleward and just far enough east that combined with a favorable AO/NAO that should suppress the SE ridge some. Yea there should be some SE ridge response to the wavelengths out west but it’s still flexing to Canada!   It shouldn’t take a perfect wavelength alignment to stop the SE ridge from pumping to the arctic circle. 

Maybe that's where we are now?  Everything has to be exactly perfect, or no shot.  That's not just being a random downer.  Its a possibility that should be kept in mind.

Just now, CAPE said:

+PNA 

But +AO/+NAO.  Can't win, even in fantasy land.

3 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

That's all we can ask for. That is quite an incursion of cold air into the U.S. in January. Since it's 10-15 days away, it's hard to trust the models based on their track record. So we wait.

 

Been reading several items about wanting a Pacific jet extension to help shake up the NPac ridge.  I was thinking wasn't it last year that we were desperately hoping for the jet to retract so we could shake off the Pac puke?  So an extended jet is sometimes good and sometimes bad?  Anyone with more knowledge have any insight?

15 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Yeah, it's going to be a very cold January. Let's see if we can get some precip patterns.. at the very least, La Nina is canceled out. It's usually wetter late Jan into Feb anyway. 15-16 is actually coming up as an analog, although we won't bomb a 30" blizzard probably. 

Well Chuck nailed the super ----------------- PNA weeks in advance, so maybe he's on to something here?

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m working on -NAO and neutral pna. It will have to do!  

I was bad this year so I go a North Pacific ridge in my stocking.

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If that were a real thing I'd be tempted to invest, lol

We can start a GoFundMe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Looking up articles about that dang Hadley Cell I'm growing to despise...I guess this "poleward expansion" isn't something that just...reverses itself?

All it would take is some minor geoengineering.  If we want more snow, maybe w can all chip in and buy a few trillion tons of sulfur dioxide to throw into the atmosphere or seed the ocean with iron.

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 

What is "P2" and "LC2"?

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Like I said no towel throwing. You all know when I think it’s time to have an epic meltdown and nuke the season I won’t shy away.  I can Ji with the best of ‘‘em but I wait until it’s REALLY time. 
 

My pessimism is more for the period from Dec 27-Jan 3 which I initially pegged a while ago as a period of opportunity. But ~10 days ago guidance had the equation slightly off. It had the N pac ridge but not to the actual amplitude. We could have worked with this look it that pac ridge was less anomalous. But it’s just too dominant and the downstream effects  are more than the NAO can offset for places south of 40. 
 

After they is still ambiguous as it should be at that range. History still suggests eventual progression. Also, all we really need is for the pac to back off some. Not a full reshuffle. Even just a period where the pac ridge lessens somewhat and we could work with it. But…I would caution to continue to look at the amplitude and location of the features in the pac and be hesitant to buy the trough in the east until we see adequate signs that equation is changing. 

Thank you for the info.  I see that really nice EPO ridge almost to the pole.  So I know that is generally positive as far as cold.  I have heard it doesn't really help if the troughiness is tended to the west.

6 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I feel like the GFS had a poor handle on the pattern we're going into now at the end of Dec. I would favor the Euro at this point. 

Haven't seen much mention of the EPS lately.  I was assuming it was degrading the same way.

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

As long as it ends like this 

Learning moment for me.  All I see is a full-latitude ridge.  How does that get us (or at least you guys) in a better place.

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I am getting a little nervous of what happens if the mjo stalls in 7 and never progresses. Frankly the dominant convection has stalled almost in 6. The really good roll forward analog projections are based on the fact that a high amplitude phase 6/7 almost always makes it to 8. But there are always exceptions. The mjo dying in phase 6/7 would possibly muck up my expected pattern progression. I’m not favoring that att but doesn’t mean I’m not aware of it. 

Just curious why you are not favoring the 6/7 death possibility at this time.

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

What a great overachiever here today. Still raining and we’re over 1” for the event. Doubt we’ll get too much more but this was the rainfall we needed. Also, what an incredible temp drop. It has now dropped more than 20 degrees from the early morning high, now sitting a 42.7

Edit: Finished with 1.04” for the event and that puts us at 2.01” MTD 

Also got 1.04 in the bucket at my PWS.  2.35 MTD.

Going into church today it was still pretty mild, but rainy.  Coming out it was much colder.

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

I agree, it sucks.  This format is much better for actual content sharing but that isn't the way everybody is moving.  This is actually the last of about a dozen boards I'm a member of including motorcycling, bodybuilding, financial, energy, etc that hasnt died yet. Once it drops below a critical mass threshold and there aren't enough people to sustain worthwhile posting then it'll wipe out too.  

 

This is why it is particularly important to welcome new people to post even if they aren't weather experts. Otherwise it just ends up as an echo chamber for a few posters for a little while before collapsing.  You can at least put it off by getting a lot of newbs onsite wanting to learn.  

The Southeastern forum has been essentially dead for the last two years at least, which is why I hang out here.  I've learned a lot here, and I hate to see it declining as well.  I wish I had more to offer.  I have also come to realize that it takes a LOT of work to learn enough for one to make meaningful contribution, so my respect for all those that do.

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Congrats Raleigh?

If you insist, well take it off your hands.

1.02 in Wilson.

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

I agree with this. With how amped into 7 it is supposed to get 8 seems like almost a sure thing. 

Are you trying to jinx us?

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

It might not even snow on mt psu. The rest of us are fng screwed.

Luckily he still has a substantial snow pack left from last year.

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Relax I’m giving him a hard time. But he would do better to know his climo. CAPE does!  He knows snow is an anomaly where he is and doesn’t act like he expects it.  I had to spend significant portions of some winters in Cape May many years ago and when I was there I didn’t even bother to track. It never once snowed over the probably ~100 days cumulative I spend there in peak winter but I wasn’t upset at all because I didn’t expect anything and hadn’t bothered wasting my time tracking on the rare chance it snowed.  Same when I was dating a girl in NC and spent significant time there or visiting my parents in winter when they were living down there.  
 

If you live somewhere that averages like 10-15” of snow, and most of that comes because once every 10 years or so you get some crazy anomalous snowy year…getting frustrated when it doesn’t snow is just setting yourself up to hate life. 

NC is where you should go to feel better about Mid Atlantic snow climatology.  Take it from one who lives in the NC coastal plain.

59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s a perception that probably comes from the fact that even when we get a colder nina they still tend not to be great in terms of snow and the warmed ones can be just awful. 

this is all Nina’s in the past 30 years Dec-Feb

If anything the trough is in the east more than the west. The obvious dominant effect is that central pac ridge. There are really 2 pattern types to Nina.  When that ridge is flat all of the conus tends to torch and get flooded with pac puke. When that ridge extends poleward we tend to see cold extend from western Canada into the northeast. Problem is even in the colder look there is no STJ so we get a cold dry pattern usually. That’s still preferable and we can, with blocking, score some snow but absent 1996 we don’t get enough for a “big” winter even in a cold nina. 

Very interesting.  Where do you go to make those custom graphs?  I know I have done it myself before, but I have forgotten how  If I Google NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, I can find a page hosted by the Physical Sciences Laboratory, but it's not obvious how to enter data to form the graphs.

45 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The Euro isn't what it used to be. I think the gfs has really closed the gap. No science behind the statement, just going off of model watching.

Per the global correlation charts I have been seeing, the Euro is still the king, with the CMC in second place.  It would be really interesting to see if there is any data showing who scores best on certain specific smaller scales, such as eastern North America.

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s too early to say what the base state is

I was under the impression that Nina base state is west trough, east ridge.