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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Seems like models were playing around with the “bury it in the SE” scenario at 18z but agreed. Where the heaviest rain here is depends on where the trough sets up and how fast Debby/remnants come north. The “highest risk” area is probably the Poconos/Catskills east to N NJ and Hudson Valley but could be further east if the trough comes in faster/further east and boots it NE.
  2. jm1220
    Still parts of the south shore that missed out on the recent rain, hopefully they do well.
  3. jm1220
    If the center is over Trenton NJ like that it would be very heavy rain for the Poconos/Catskills, a Tropical Storm Lee type scenario. All that high PW air would slam into the front west of the storm plus orographic lift and give them big problems.
  4. jm1220
    Yep, there’s always a front that sets up west of the track in these that dumps out all the tropical moisture and usually zilch other than a band or two east. Historically this happens in NJ/Hudson Valley but we’re still at the anything can happen range. This PRE for mid week looks more definite and that can cause flooding by itself.
  5. jm1220
    A lot depends on the strength of the Bermuda High which as we’ve seen is undermodeled much of the time. If it’s stronger it’ll track further west and we already see it strengthening because of the sharp turn back N to landfall in the Carolina’s. The heaviest rain with any Debby remnants will be west of the track.
  6. jm1220
    Debby would almost certainly be retired if that happens.
  7. jm1220
    Looking like the buried in the South outcome won’t happen so we have to see where it starts to get booted NE and if this hook back into the Carolinas really happens. Complex interactions-and way too early to determine what our outcome is. We can definitely get drenched and seems like this PRE type event tomorrow will really happen regardless
  8. jm1220
    Holy moly is the St Pete area getting slammed. Close to 10” already just south near Sarasota.
  9. jm1220
    Regardless, I don't think brown lawns will be a thing anymore a week from now.
  10. jm1220
    If we start to see a trend to more progressive with the low it's where we might be in trouble since the next trough can come in and grab it. The solutions that bury it under the trough in the southeast leave us drier.
  11. jm1220
    Watching the stuff approaching SW Nassau-might not be done yet for many.
  12. jm1220
    Smithtown/Hauppauge areas look like they got nailed, up to 2.5”. Definitely needed there since they haven’t been as lucky with the rain IMBY and further west.
  13. jm1220
    We lucked out with the outflow boundaries from the earlier storms west of us sparking new storms over us.
  14. jm1220
    Up to about 1.3” so far today.
  15. jm1220
    Downpouring, constant thunder rumbles.
  16. jm1220
    Tropical downpours already and this heavy line about to move in.
  17. jm1220
    Outflow boundary coming onto LI now, let's see if something can fire up.
  18. jm1220
    I'm in the higher elevated area just east of Rt 110 so uit usually doesn't get quite as hot here. But either way-disgusting.
  19. jm1220
    For a mean that’s quite impressive. But still way too early to count on it up here. Hopefully there’s a PRE/stalled front situation with rain for most or all regardless.
  20. jm1220
    Yep already 88 here. The heat pit in Commack east of me is already in the low 90s.
  21. jm1220
    Our real chance east of Queens will be when some kind of a front can focus the storms and push them east before the marine air can kill them off. That might be on Monday.
  22. jm1220
    The heaviest rain would be where a front can set up west of the storm to focus the tropical moisture. Historically 90% of the time it happens in NJ/Hudson Valley. But a week away really anything can happen-could still get booted out.
  23. jm1220
    About 0.15". Been lucky many other times though so I'm not complaining.
  24. jm1220
    Light to maybe mod rain.
  25. jm1220
    Line breaking up on cue as it hits the marine influenced air. We’ll see how much can survive east of Queens.
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