jm1220
-
Posts
24,723 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by jm1220
-
May have been Ida. That was really bad rain wise for my area, eastern PA and NJ, and S NJ I remember there being a tornado outbreak south of the track.
-
And it appears there were multiple EF2 or 3 wedge type tornadoes. Also extremely rare in hurricanes.
-
These winds are felt offshore where there is no friction. Maybe a very small area right on the beach did.
-
Models seem to have it mainly along I-4 so Orlando will likely get blasted too, hopefully not as bad as Tampa. It'll be along and north of wherever the quasi-frontal boundary sets up that focuses and dumps out the moist southerly feed east of the center.
-
So that’s a surge now of 6ft there and still rising fast (8ft water level minus 2ft normal). Punta Gorda further north must be even worse and will get worse as more water funnels into the harbor. The tide is also coming back in.
-
-
8-9” now in Tampa proper and absolutely pouring in that N eyewall area. Wonder if we see evidence of the sting jet soon down near the Charlotte Harbor area.
-
Must be some flooding coming from the bay into eastern St Pete area. There’ll be over 12” rain across that whole area.
-
The storm’s over? Nice!
-
Unfortunately landfall is about when I thought the serious water rises would start down there. About when the wind shifts direction.
-
It'll get much worse there.
-
Some estimates 12-13”+ in St Pete Beach area.
-
And it’s probably still a couple to few hours away. The center has slowed down and it won’t really come in until winds switch to onshore. Tampa I think it’s safe to say dodged that bullet but maybe 18” of rain and well over hurricane force gusts in the N eyewall is no joke. Charlotte Harbor I think gets the worst like you said and still heavily populated there very close to sea level.
-
Already 10” rain per radar estimate at St Pete Beach with much more to come. Someone in the Tampa/St Pete area and then along I-4 might end up with 18”.
-
For sure, the water pushed into Charlotte Harbor and up the inlets will be a big problem. And looks like it’s headed into high tide from here.
-
Probably right around the time the eye comes ashore is when the very fast water rises will start. That’s when winds will switch to W, be aided by the possible sting jet and push the surge onshore. So maybe 8-9pm. Wind direction is still not really onshore south of the eye. Looks like the worst surge will be around the Venice area south to Cape Coral.
-
Charlotte Harbor/Punta Gorda/Venice might get the worst surge with this latest east jog if it keeps up.
-
Looks like the eye is slowing down a bit, maybe about to start the right turn. Regardless Tampa will get raked by the N eyewall and maybe a foot of rain. Radar estimates already 6-7” in spots.
-
Looks to me like there’s more of an attempt of the outer eyewall to take over and lightning in the eyewall. That N eyewall still looks fierce. And some wobbles more northerly.
-
Looks like it’s wobbling back N now if anything.
-
Curious to see if this new eyewall developing can close. Still looks healthy if a bit ragged on IR. Like others have said it’s pretty dramatically expanding its windfield at the moment.
-
Interaction with the jet to the NE doing its work. It’s imparting shear as well but helping the hurricane expand and increasing the IKE which unfortunately means more water being moved and worse surge.
-
The SE ridge has to be kept in check or the Miller Bs etc won’t matter, it’ll be rain here and probably well north too. There has to be some mechanism to get colder here and keep it here for a storm. We can definitely get blasted by Miller B’s and Nina by itself isn’t a kiss of death IMBY but the overall conditions the last couple of winters with the rampaging Pacific jet and SE ridge has to change.
-
If they get a prolonged SW wind that drives water into Charlotte Harbor, yep-it’ll be bad for Punta Gorda.
-
Our ACE card up our sleeve turned out to be a Joker pointing to map with another mega cutter to the Lakes.
