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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    At this point you're right, the outcome's fine here and the mix happens when the precip lightens up but if we keep this trend we'll start seeing rain eat into the front end burst too. Luckily we have such a cold airmass to start which should at least make for a very nice event for everyone.
  2. jm1220
    Yep, I-81 corridor in PA looking to get demolished.
  3. jm1220
    Yep, this has 0.3" or so as rain east of the city. Very nice outcome anyway but we don't want this getting more amped. Hopefully 0z shifts it back SE a little.
  4. jm1220
    Seems to love that initial front end thump but it seemed more amped to me. Low looked to get close to Cape May. That's enough usually to change the city on east over. But it would be after most of the precip fell already.
  5. jm1220
    I highly doubt we get 25" of snow but its the new GFS version and hopefully onto something.
  6. jm1220
  7. jm1220
    It's been extremely consistent the last 4 runs or so. Hope it and the NAM are onto it.
  8. jm1220
    The RGEM deepens the trough more and strengthens the low early which causes it to be more of a coast hugger for a time and also bring in warm air around from the east. It backed away from this a little this run from 12z but hopefully that continues and the trough can be more progressive.
  9. jm1220
    It was an improvement over 12z, all that really matters to me. I don’t see 35” of snow happening in Baltimore but who knows.
  10. jm1220
    Right, it's one possible outcome. The ugly GGEM/UK for many are another.
  11. jm1220
    This would be 2-4"/hr under this band.
  12. jm1220
    Sign me up ASAP
  13. jm1220
    Absolutely annihilated by that death WAA band. Holy smokes.
  14. jm1220
    NAM is fine for all of us, not noticing much change really other than like was said-a little colder.
  15. jm1220
    The Euro did dig more and has the stalled/tucked kind of solution where warm air can wrap around from the east. So we don't want that continuing especially east of NYC.
  16. jm1220
    This isn't a miller A. It's a miller B transferring storm.
  17. jm1220
    If you follow what the pattern supports people shouldn't be flipping out. I was always more worried about yet another situation here where we worry about mixing/dryslot vs suppressed. Not saying the mixing will really happen but too suppressed is off the table at this point. This'll be a big test for the new GFS, it's been the most bullish by far for NYC. But even these amped models seem to end up delivering a good amount for places away from the twin forks so I'll take it.
  18. jm1220
    The new UKMET looks a lot like the GGEM to me, so it's not on its own.
  19. jm1220
    Yeah it seemed to me like it stalled out and started occluding so soon and far south that it wrapped warm/dry air around from the east which screws it for eastern areas.
  20. jm1220
    GFS v16 still looks amazing for places south of I-84. Might have ticked south a little from 6z?
  21. jm1220
    The competing mesolows chasing convection are frequently wrong and are a function of the meso models overdoing the convection. I guess technically they can work out but I've yet to see it actually happen.
  22. jm1220
    Odd and to me seems like an outlier. It ends up fine especially near the city but it might be in clueless mode again. This model can't get retired soon enough.
  23. jm1220
    Wow....
  24. jm1220
    NAM supports a crazy snow band that would drop much of our snow here over a 6-8 hour period or so on Mon afternoon. This is for 18z Mon Inland gets there in the end but it's lighter snow over a longer duration.
  25. jm1220
    The GFS v16 went even more berserk at 6z for everyone except the far northern areas and even they would have a nice event in the end. Has over 2" liquid as snow for NYC and Long Island, 1" up to about I-84.
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