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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    That is one crazy 850mb easterly moist flow coming in on this. This’ll be a very nice event where that can be maximized and the cold air stands firm. It’s not a bombing out low where there’ll be 3-5”/hr bands I think but we can rack up totals well over a foot over the duration it’ll last. I’d pay more attention to where that easterly jet gets than the snow maps necessarily. The Euro that run as is gets the mix line close to the twin forks for a time and seems like it changes SE MA over. Hopefully it doesn’t amp much more.
  2. jm1220
    They probably aren’t I’d wager. Late north shifts happen almost every storm. Just hopefully it isn’t more than 50 miles or so, that way most of us can jackpot and the mix can stay offshore.
  3. jm1220
    Right now I’d say small odds but we have until tomorrow evening I’d say before we can lock in an all snow event. As we know it won’t take a huge change to bring the issues back. Before 12/17 there was a day or so head fake before the amped trends began and we got the nice event but inland got much more. This is a somewhat different setup and the confluence will only allow so much amping but you can never rule it out.
  4. jm1220
    That said there’s definitely a nice fetch of moisture coming in on that easterly mid level jet around the stalled out/crawling low so it will go to town somewhere as that sits overhead. Some swath probably gets 10-15”+ in that region.
  5. jm1220
    We have to keep watching the mid level low tracks. This can trend back to a place where the 700/850 lows track NW of many and the dryslot and rain come back. There’s still time for that too. Right now it’s perfect for LI/NYC/central NJ but 72 hours left.
  6. jm1220
    Bump!! Put the Lee Goldberg, wxrisk, Steve D etc calls here.
  7. jm1220
    That it should go to the vendor thread that I'll bump in a second
  8. jm1220
    I wouldn't go higher than 8-12" anywhere at this point. Still too many variables including where that can be. For inland people, this still can easily trend 50-75 miles or so and put them in the jackpot. Hopefully for MBY it stays as is of course.
  9. jm1220
    Can always increase if needed!!
  10. jm1220
    Still a little early for SREF. Tomorrow would be better to use those I would think
  11. jm1220
    Binghamton over to N NH in the 12/17 storm was supposed to get a few inches maybe and in some cases weren’t even under watches but ended up buried over 30”. Can’t expect that again but the northern edge isn’t a bad place to be in storms like these. There’s very often a big mid level lift band there with very high ratios.
  12. jm1220
    It’s actually a possibility that ratios could be over 10-1 for a time as well for most of us if we don’t have to deal with warm air intrusion aloft. If the strong lift can match up with the -12 to -18C layer aloft that would maximize ratios.
  13. jm1220
    Actually from what I saw in the NE forum the GGEM ensembles were better NW of the city than down here. A whole bunch of outcomes are still possible.
  14. jm1220
    Until the one tonight and then tomorrow etc. I wouldn’t freak out about any outcome at this point. I’d say tomorrow is when we can really start to nail down the outcome.
  15. jm1220
    Snow maps again shouldn't be taken too seriously but there will be areas where dynamics are maxed out and once the low starts occluding the snow will be more spotty and banded/shredded. So that could be what causes it in E CT.
  16. jm1220
    We’re overdue for lousy winters down here for sure which I’ve said before. There’s been 1” here across a few “events” since the 12/17 storm and we’re less than 1/3 to seasonal average snow. This one isn’t nailed down yet by any means. Hopefully there’s a way we all get crushed.
  17. jm1220
    Pretty much the template winter storm forecast since the 1970s. “Yada yada changing to rain in the city heavy snow north and west”
  18. jm1220
    It can't be discounted. There's still plenty of time for a shift back north. Minor changes in the underlying mid level pattern can lead to significant changes at the surface. Although right now I'd downplay talk of changing over.
  19. jm1220
    Which makes it comical how it somehow only has 3-4" of snow in the I-287 area. If anything that may indicate a subsidence area could happen there over my roof on LI. People shouldn't live and die on snow maps.
  20. jm1220
    The lobes rotating around the confluence that's left will be important. Seems like now there is a lobe developing that will reinforce the confluence.
  21. jm1220
    There's often heavy snow west and north of where the max QPF axis is. I don't have access to the upper level charts but even the GFS to me seemed like it would get better dynamics and snow north of where it had it. There'll be a long easterly mid level fetch that will bring plenty of moisture in.
  22. jm1220
    To me it still looked good for many of us.
  23. jm1220
    I’m not worried about anything the GFS shows for coastal storms at this range. It can comically catch onto the consensus 24 hours out or even less. We just have to hope the confluence isn’t too strong.
  24. jm1220
    It isn’t as much a problem this time vs in December when there was practically no snow south of Sandy Hook. But a long NE fetch would likely warm the surface up especially south of Asbury Park.
  25. jm1220
    Yes, definitely true. Last minute north trends are undeniable in 90% of the storms that come here in the winter. On 12/17 areas that got 30”+ had something like 0.25” liquid on most models 24 hours before.
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