jm1220

We can’t keep blaming “bad luck” for why we can’t produce anything during favorable pattern windows. There’s a reason these turd in the punchbowls show up and ruin setups for big storms. The prevalence of all these confluence/kicker etc shortwaves is because the Pacific jet is so chaotic and fast. It also knocks down the big ridges and troughs that can generate the bigger storms, and can push them into bad alignments and locations, ie make them positively tilted.

Pathetic. Wonder how many Gulf coast cities will have more for the season than Central Park in 24-48 hours? Not enough for Memphis and Little Rock of course. Nice event generally and we take, but snow wise this is still one of our lamest winters.

If we can maintain the cold into Feb, we should have some chances as moisture comes back north to attack the cold air. We usually have our better storms when that happens. Amazing the lack of SE ridge this year, maybe that will be good to keep the SWFEs at bay. The Pacific slowing down and flinging less crap towards us that interfere with our bigger threats would be great.

Islip got 2.3". Up to a whopping 4.8" on the season there, still under half of average to date. I probably should be at 10-11" at this point and have 8".

On the low end of expectations generally but a nice event. It was clear yesterday AM that other than the places hit by the 700mb/mid-level band it wouldn't live up to the higher expectations since this was a disorganized system that couldn't really drive in the Atlantic moisture. 3.5-4" around this area, can't complain.

Maybe one last little band developing in NJ. Good for another few tenths?

Light snow, probably not much left. Made it into the 3-5" range predicted anyway.

It'll be close but I think we make it to 4". Hopefully a couple more moderate bursts and improving ratios. This will definitely stick around-it's going to freeze into a brick.

The usual 700mb fronto/convergence band with high ratios set up inland, so even with maybe less liquid those areas will still do better than down here. There's almost always that far NW band that develops and nails someone. Unfortunately it seemed to cause subsidence SE of it and this storm just isn't that organized with a good transport of Atlantic moisture. We have a nice few hours but a better developed CCB would've been much better for everyone. Last night hinted at it possibly then this AM that hope fell apart. But of course it's better than the washout the Canadian had for 2-3 days.

Can't even imagine. They don't have the equipment down there or the experience to deal with an inch of snow much less 6"+. Any amount of snow/ice there pretty much shuts a city down.

Almost 2" now. Really coming down.

HRRR seems to end things between 10-11pm at least mod-heavy accumulating snow. I'll gladly take this as long as it lasts and at this clip I might be able to make it to 4-5" which a few hours ago was doubtful.

Snow really picking up now and bigger flakes.

We’ll drop some more in the next couple hours, it’ll be in the 20s by the time snow ends. Would like to see bigger flakes for better ratios but next few hours will be fun regardless. Ratios are mostly determined by the snow growth in the cloud, you want it -12 to -18C in the snow growth and strong lift. Lousy snow growth initially is why we were dealing with dippin’ dots.

Almost an inch now. More dippin' dots with the snow.

Only time I’ve ever witnessed thunder snow was the 12/30/00 storm. Would be awesome for it to happen here tonight.

I’m only a half inch ahead of you and you should be changing over soon. This batch looks like it’ll swipe the whole island.

Down to 31. Light snow, no more graupel. About a half inch on the table, everything including street covered. That batch in NJ looks awesome, if that can pivot over for a few hours 4” is possible after all.

Looking at DE and E MD that’s probably our chance to really accumulate east of the city when that pivots in. We need that to last a couple hours at least.

We’ll just have to see what happens, I’m not optimistic. The stuff south of us looks rather shredded. Maybe it’ll strengthen later on but the best looks to be NW of us in that main band. Inland wins again. We’ll need a big turnaround to get to the 4” predicted and HRRR has been trending drier over time.

Light snow, maybe a little graupel still mixed in. Temp 32. Ground other than the street is coated.

It's been trending worse if anything. At this point it is what it is. Hopefully it'll be wrong.

Been that way for 20+ years now since I was an undergrad there 2005-09. UNV is always too far in any direction for the best snow and just too far E and on the downslope side of the Allegheny Ridge. Nickle and dime city. The average per year is higher than places to the SE but it's nails on a chalkboard to get there. Prepare to be annoyed countless more times. Anyway congrats to the S PA crew that are having a good storm. Hilarious that such a top meteorology school is in such a torturous place for snow.

No way, there's been showery precip up until now and even the barrier islands look like they're down to 34. There's just been less and less precip forecast and this band to the west looks more and more dominant so the inland areas will likely win after all. We need this stuff off NJ/DE to be intense for the few hours it's here.

Grauple/light snow, temp down to 33. Some accumulation on colder surfaces. Will start accumulating on pavement soon as the sun goes down.