jm1220

Hopefully we get some rain this month to refill the reservoirs-there will be drought restrictions for sure if we don't recharge before summer. I'm sure there will be some other 2-3" type snow events this winter to get me over 10", hopefully to 15" but that's still well below average here, less than 50% of average. If we do get a block again but no SE ridge it just means more suppression. We need some way to amplify the pattern to get storms to come north but resistance via confluence or weaker block so it doesn't turn into a strong primary to Erie that cooks us before we have a chance at redevelopment offshore. The AO should be positive which as Don points out is unfavorable for significant snow in NYC. We have the same fast Pacific flow pattern which will try to kneecap the amplification needed or favor SWFEs if the SE ridge gets too dominant. There's a small window for something to work out here but we should be realistic that it's small, and that might be a front ender to rain. I can't think of many gradient/SWFE patterns that work here (at least S of I-84)-we get one-offs sometimes like 2/22/08, but the last time that really worked here was an epic example like 93-94. I mean, there is the cold air to the north which could favor the front ender to rain if we have a good overrunning high for the SWFE to come into, but without some mechanism to prevent it from being scoured out or force redevelopments offshore in time, NYC is a very uphill climb.

Another consolation coating? It’ll be nice but I’m done caring about those when I’m sitting at 8” on 2/1. The upcoming pattern looks gradient/SWFE which to me means New England/I-90 is favored. If we have some mechanism to force them south like confluence or blocking we have a shot at a front end snow event at least but we all know these try to nudge north at the end.

Wake me up when any of them are within 72 hours.

That never happens. Impossible!

Winds are out of the south off the water and temps are steady or warming up. Any freezing rain if at all would be very brief around the city.

Even in the last two godawful winters I cleared 10” IMBY, I’m pretty confident there’ll be another event or two to get us over that mark and maybe if lucky 15-20”, but I see nothing on the horizon to change things up in a meaningful way, ie something that would bring a SECS/MECS. Central Park has 5.8” I think, it’s probably a coin flip whether they make it to 10”. So the overwhelming likelihood is another well below average snow winter.

Buckle up where-Detroit, Buffalo, Minneapolis? Or New Orleans, Pensacola and Savannah again?

Snowpack demolition day.

Just like NNE, it’s a matter of time before the upper Midwest finally cashes in during a Nina winter. When the SE ridge goes crazy that’s definitely the favored area for snow.

Average IMBY is low to mid-30 inches of snow a year. That’s not happening without a miracle turnaround. I have 8” or so and looking at goose-egg in the near future. I’m sure there will be another snow system before spring to get most of us to 10”+ but that’s still way below average and we’re getting closer to the time of year where it won’t stick around for long. So I’m fine with it being warm enough to do activities outside and just be done with another fail winter, 3 failures in a row. Get it out of here if it won’t snow, and this winter had the added kick in the teeth of it being snowy to our south. Hopefully we do get some needed rain to refill the reservoirs and water table for summer.

When we lose the cross polar source region and go back to modified polar, no surprise the temp forecasts go up as a result.

Forky and others said the Jan pattern might just be cold and dry. Big blocking NAO patterns often aren’t good for us, our opportunity is when the blocking breaks down. If there’s a huge block or confluence north of us, any storm will just run into a wall. The fast pattern also causes too much interference with shortwaves and prevents amplification.

Awesome, hopefully early Spring.

10-11 was the best winter for snow depth in my life, and I lived on the south shore at the time. It was absolutely epic just a few miles inland pretty much where they avoided warm air intrusions better. 1/26-27/11 was one of my all time favorites with epic snow rates overnight and thundersleet to kick it off.

It’s a Nina year, it’s only a matter of time before things turn around to very snowy for NNE.

No access to our OT forum which is a complete cesspool so it’s for the best.

Patchy down here in places with full sun, on the south shore where full sun there’s little left. It’s nice to have the snow cover for the days we have and it definitely helped temps get down to the single digits overnight.

Can’t say that definitively because maybe we can squeeze a half decent event in like 2/28/23 which was 4-6” for much of the area but not looking good. We sunk all the way down to a Richmond/Tidewater VA snow climate without larger KU events.

That was a nice storm. I was in HS at the time and remember driving sleet in Long Beach that changed to heavy snow. I think Dix Hills had 14”. 03-04 was a great winter, frigid cold and 40”+ snow.

This awesome winter has 8” snow for me so far and less than 6” in Central Park. The cold is noteworthy but only because the last two winters were so warm. I’d give it a C-/D+ so far. If we torch in Feb it becomes D-/F.

How awesome for them.

Going into Feb gradient patterns are concerning. Might be great for Boston but cold rain/sleet here. It’s also still a Nina and Feb Nina’s try to pump the SE ridge. To our south is naturally starting to warm up and that will have more of an influence. We’d really need a strong high or confluence to keep us on the cold side of any gradient.

They had 5" in the last storm where we had 3-4".

They had 12". I remember it as a storm that trended way west at the last minute. 48 hours out it was supposed to clip Cape Cod. It occluded south of us so it brought in a huge dry slot and some warmer air. https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html

Central Park had 4.5" precip in Dec. It rained plenty when we had a cutters pattern. I'm sure it will again when we revert back. I've never seen it like this before where any cold and snow avoid each other like the plague except in places that snow maybe once a decade or less.