jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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I mean @Allsnow has to do the honors. Welcome back!
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Maybe @MJO812 should get some supplies at the CVS for old times sake.
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18-24 diapers? Drifts to 36?
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I guess I can get that to suffice. Not too shabby. Shoot your cuffs.
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And ratios will definitely help NW of where the max QPF ends up, and banding will probably get into all of our subforum so we all have an equal chance at this point IMO at jackpot type amounts (20"+ maybe 25"). Wow wow wow. It sucked to miss 2/1 but this makes up for it!
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Someplace sure. The one time I experienced it was 12/30/00. All systems are go for an absolute crushing. Jan 2022 about 75 miles west?
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If the 700/850 low tracks over you sure. Again too soon to know where the best banding sets up but that’s what I’m really watching. That and how soon they close off. When you see the closed 700/500mb lows and deepening low not occluded yet you have a great feed of moisture into a healthy CCB.
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I think as long as the 500/700/850 lows are all closed off and go SE of us we’re fine in terms of mixing being an issue. If we start seeing those trend to tracking over us we have a problem.
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Yep. Often these like to tick east a little at the very end. I can definitely see the scenario where the death band sets up over NJ and Hudson Valley but way too early to iron out those details.
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The storm isn’t hugging the coast and turning people to rain guys lol.
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Yep absolutely, EPS and AIFS are a nuke. Really liking where things stand for a change. Pretty clear to me there’ll be 20”+ for at least some of us. 3-4” per hour for several hours and the storm isn’t in a rush to haul out of here. So glad the curse is finally ending.
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Yeah lol, there’ll be bands with 3-4” per hour easy in this.
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The inverted trough seems to be merging into the larger area of snow too. I remember something similar in the Feb 2013 storm where that similar kind of feature rotated east and gave us all heavy snow for hours.
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If you see 2 or 3 closed 500mb contours SE of LI, really nothing else to be said-those have been our top snowfall producing setups. Inland wouldn't do quite as well but maybe close because of less wind (wind can hamper ratios by breaking up the flakes) and excellent moisture transport in the CCB. And we all know these love to put a NW fronto band in there somewhere like West Milford which always seems to get hammered in these.
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Some of the parking lot piles will still be around in May after this lol.
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Yeah-once you see that closed 500mb low go SE of LI 75 miles or so, that's top class stuff.
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I have about 32" now so if there's 12" from this that gets me to 44" which I'd consider quite good. My average here going back 30 years is probably about 35". Islip is 31" I think.
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It’ll probably have the same water content as Jan 25th’s.
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Maybe at the very start there are a few raindrops or mix on the coast? There’s no concern about it cutting down accums.
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Since 2022? Definitely. But before Jan 2022 we had plenty of coastal storms that favored NYC and east.
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There’s no concern about rain with this storm, none whatsoever
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There’s very rarely room for error in any major snowstorm we get and the trends are in our favor. I’ll gladly take it.
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The storms aren’t officially chosen until next year for this winter I think but given the huge geographic area affected and BOS walking away with 23”, it’s a very high likelihood. It’s based on severity times number of people affected.
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I’d say 1/25 is almost certainly a KU.
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Doesn’t really matter to me what TV met X is forecasting right now, it’ll go up by this evening. 6-12” in the city is probably a good call at the moment, chance highest for 12”+ in Suffolk and coastal NJ.
