jm1220

Some could just be atrocious snow growth too, but soundings from some of the short range modeling were clear this would be an issue.

To be honest the precip shield over NJ looks like crap to me with all the holes that are perfect for letting the mid level warm air catch up. The short range models seem to consolidate and fill this in soon, hope they’re right. Sorry to all those guys getting sleet and now we know-we can’t dismiss the NAM when it shows lousy QPF and surging mid level warmth.

Just under 2” here, like 1.8”. Flake size increasing again.

These patches of yellow on the sleet line line up with the swiss cheese subsidence holes and push back a little when the precip increases. But not what I was hoping to see in the radar presentation for holding the sleet back. Last Feb's SWFE was way more organized with the precip so the sleet was slower to advance. Hopefully it doesn't advance too far into the city and it gets its act together for everyone. But those places by I-287 are probably done for much more snow.

The sleet line should wash out a bit if the heavy rates can persist for a while. Otherwise those getting sleet and not expecting it-that’s the problem with these systems that don’t come in with persistent heavy rates and these subsidence holes.

Not really. It sucks but there was subsidence next to the band over Westchester. That said it should be snowing again soon there.

Kinda what the HRRR/RAP hinted at-that stuff over NJ should fill in as it heads east.

The yellow line was the sleet line a few minutes ago. We'll see how heavier steadier rates can help it fall back west.

An inch here already just about. Heavy but with smaller flakes/some dippin’ dots.

That mixed bag up by Stroudsburg looks like it will mix out over to snow with better rates. Allentown probably out of luck but we’ll see how much good the better rates can do.

Definitely picking up quickly with bigger flakes. This will pile up fast.

25, Light snow. Everything dusted.

The radar has that shredded look I mentioned in that area. Warm air has an easier time advancing in the mid levels when you can't get sustained lift and precip rates.

Thanks. Still a respectable event for most and about what I'm thinking. Those are definitely my two "what can go wrongs"-the mid level warmth and overshooting warm advection snow leaving people south of it in a dryslot or light precip. HRRR has been pushing that further and further NE all day. Guess that's to be expected with the 700mb low hanging on so long. Hopefully it'll verify south a little and the wetter models like the GFS have a clue.

It's overshooting the main warm advection snow further and further NE so we deal with subsidence. Just have to see what happens at this point.

Think there’s a good shot at reaching over 15” for the month after tonight.

And it shows next to no snow west of BGM which is already wrong.

Hopefully BGM can fight off mixing. Probably a good sign down here if they can stay all snow. Further west around Elmira looks like they’re fighting back and forth.

For my sake here I’ll definitely be rooting for you lol.

Doubtful but I think if Boston gets 3”+ NYC gets less than 3. I don’t see this as a situation where both cities win. The snow really making it that far E means either/both a lot of warm mid level air or a dry slot under the warm advection heavy snow in NYC. NWS also quite aggressive out here, my point/click is 7-11” and expected amount up to 9”. I’m thinking the low end of that and any 9” would be out by Port Jeff to Riverhead maybe but we’ll have to see. Regardless 7” is still a very respectable event. Still thinking the city is a general 3-6”, 3 for Staten Island and Rockaways, 6 for the Bronx and NE Queens.

Your area’s gonna do very well. Probably best of anyone on LI.

Yep, this close in that’s ridiculous. You can’t call it 3-6”?

If you were expecting a big snowstorm south of NYC from this particularly near Trenton and south I’m not sure what to say. There was very little to support that from what I’ve seen the last 48 hours. These storm types-SWFE or overrunning type storms correct north so many times at the end. That being said from here I’m following the short range models like the HRRR and radar trends.

Probably a sharper cutoff than modeled but there’s always that 700mb fronto jackpot band.

If you were to pick a best place to be for this storm it’s probably the eastern Catskills to Albany then SE from there through most of CT. If you get 10” anywhere that’s where it’d probably be. Huge start to the season for S NY to the Capital district. I’m honestly more concerned about the big overrunning going to my north and getting porked on QPF waiting in subsidence vs a period of sleet that would cut my totals down but we’ll see. Odds are still for a significant event here east of the city for most of LI.