jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Yep, this winter I had go back over a year and delete tons of screenshots and pics so I could post any new ones.
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Also where there’s any compressional heating zone. That area just ahead of the seabreeze can really roast. Sometimes that’s around the Southern State Parkway/Five Towns to Roosevelt Field.
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Stop with the political stuff. Please and thank you.
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Thu and especially Fri look like the days that the coast could really rocket. 850s reach 24-25C on Fri so that should be the peak of the heat. Tue looks like strong onshore flow and maybe even Ambrose Jet. Wed the higher 850 temps over 20 move in but also maybe some storms along the periphery of the ridge. Sat-Sun the ridge looks to weaken and start to break down.
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On the barrier islands sure but just inland away from them made it to 100 during the heat last summer since we had an established WNW downslope flow. We’ll see if that holds this time but it might be very impressive near the coast where that offshore flow can maintain.
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On those days the south shore can be the hottest in the whole area because of compressional heating. Around the Southern State and Hempstead/Garden City are usually the hot spots.
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We know that Central Park likely maxes out at 98-99 under the forest canopy but LGA, EWR maybe even JFK if they keep westerly flow make it to 100. Ridge has also been trending east which is increasing the 850 temps.
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It's been dry so we probably add a couple degrees vs the heat last summer, plus we're in the same WNW flow regime that heats it up all the way to the shore and we add downslope help.
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Actually looks like I might be catching a break being in Chicago. The ridge has been trending east over time and looks like mid 90s there.
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4 straight days over 100 in NYC.
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Seems similar to the heat last summer where we got close to 100. 850 temps look similar. Thing is the dry conditions might help add a couple degrees.
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Thanks. Either way not looking forward to the scorcher. Looks like it could be pushing 100 with ridiculous dews that happen in the Midwest.
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GFS also hints at a ring of fire MCS or two that rounds the side of the ridge and might pound many of us and New England. But it's early to say how hot it gets here with the ridge centered so far west of us, it could also be multi-day onshore backdoor flow and 70s. I'll be in Chicago much of next week where it looks to be absolutely roasting.
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Models just about all lame/south. Maybe we get a slight bump north but at this range we need a sizeable shift. Probably a 0.2-0.4" deal, could just be a few showers that don't even wet underneath the trees.
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Radar estimates were ridiculously overdone. 1” where radar said there was 2.5”. So really not much help overall.
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Radar says some 2-2.5” amounts just to my south.
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Heavy Pop-up shower here in Melville.
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If you're not in the stratiform rain zone which our subforum won't, we're relying on convection to produce any rain we get. If that misses or fails to materialize we get skunked.
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Yep-skunk zone. T-storms area to the south and stratiform heavy rain along I-90. We need it, hope I’m wrong. But this is a summer SWFE that always tries to nudge north. Maybe the T-storms zone can nudge N too.
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For I-90, sure. Looks like it's bumping north. It's a summer SWFE. I guess the reservoirs are up north so that's something but it's looking like NYC/LI get skunked.
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Some of the models are starting to favor I-90. This is a SWFE type system but in June and we all know how those normally turn out.
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Latest drought monitor update has severe drought for I-95 and SE. Would be really nice if this Mon possible rain event happens. And this strong/super Nino needs to produce with the storms over the next 6-8 months.
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About a half inch or so in the Five Towns and a couple tenths in Long Beach. Degraded to crap as they almost always do there.
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Looks like southern Nassau about to get slammed.
