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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Thing is the water will come up very rapidly as the eye comes ashore, like a slowed down tsunami. And gigantic waves on top. I guess it’s a positive in this case that the elevation rises quickly away from the water.
  2. jm1220
    This is just…. Wow as it’s on final approach to land. Don’t want to add clutter but really hope these people in the direct path have a way to get to safety.
  3. jm1220
    Hoping we get decent rain east of the city since it’s still needed. Looking like the best rain may be setting up west of us again.
  4. jm1220
    Yep, that Nov 2018 SWFE snow was totally unexpected and had the impact of a MECS given it was during rush hour and no one planned for it. Driving back to Long Beach from Melville was like a car zombie apocalypse. And it was bad all the way to the immediate shore. I think it was supposed to be a half hour of white rain that’s it.
  5. jm1220
    PWS nearby has 32. May be a little low, surrounding stations have 36-38.
  6. jm1220
    I moved here in Nov 2018 thinking I’d finally cash in on good winters here vs growing up in Long Beach. Then the luck areawide ran out lol (other than 20-21).
  7. jm1220
    Yep, and some of the earliest winter events before the sound cools down it rains north of 25A but snow south of there.
  8. jm1220
    I saw FRG has 29 dewpoint and ISP 31. I agree they’ll probably tick up overnight. It usually cools down pretty good where I am but I’m elevated 50 feet or so just east of 110.
  9. jm1220
    Where I am I think it’s pretty likely. Dews are in the upper 20s and wind should be about calm.
  10. jm1220
    The reality is what is is on the Pacific side, and since that is the largest ocean and holder of worldwide heat, it largely drives our weather. We can deal with modestly unfavorable and make it work with a decent NAO and luck like 2010-11 for example, but off the charts unfavorable like the last few years and there's just no way for it to work unless we pull something like a royal flush. I don't like the reality same as anyone else here but we have to accept it. The N PAC especially east of Japan needs to markedly change for there to be good favorable windows near the coast for snowstorms. Maybe some combination of factors can happen to pull a rabbit out of the hat but we saw last winter-time after time favorable setups collapsed. If this was 15-20 years ago when the Pacific was better, last winter would've been a 50"+ season areawide.
  11. jm1220
    -NAO blocking does us no good and can actually hurt if we get a steep SE ridge that links with it. That’s happened several times the last few winters. It can also keep everything suppressed to hell if we have a fast Pacific jet.
  12. jm1220
    Use ignore and act like adults. There’s no obligation to respond back to garbage/insults. Use the report button. Life happens and mods don’t monitor this place every second. When it gets absurd here and I’m around I delete posts but I’m not here much during the boring as hell weather periods we have more and more of. Life takes priority over babysitting adults acting like 5 year olds.
  13. jm1220
    Major flooding expected at Point Lookout, Freeport and Lindenhurst Sun overnight especially.
  14. jm1220
    Long weekend ruiner for most. It's a complex interaction with the shortwave to the north which is throwing models for these fits, but generally seems to be settling into a nuisance event that hopefully replenishes the water table to some degree. Back bays and NJ coast will see moderate flooding in some places due to the easterly fetch, but beyond that an inch of rain and some gusts to 40 isn't notable at all.
  15. jm1220
    Turning into just a nasty nuisance for most of the long weekend for many.
  16. jm1220
    I would consider less than an inch of rain and some gusts maybe over 40 a dud here too.
  17. jm1220
    Guess we keep watering. Would be nice to give the sprinklers a break.
  18. jm1220
    Yep. Guess we watch tonight and hope for a better trend. Sloppy/late phase as we all know, eastern New England gets the real storm and we hope for a few wraparound table scraps. Since much of LI is back in a drought as of yesterday, whatever we can get is badly needed.
  19. jm1220
    Looks like a possible Jan 2022/Jan 2015 late bloomer scenario developing. Late bloomer coastal that clobbers New England definitely a possibility-by tomorrow AM we should see the models finally converge on an outcome. I'm just hoping we get a decent soaking for the grass and reservoirs.
  20. jm1220
    Tis the season to build up the subscribers before winter!
  21. jm1220
    36 here.
  22. jm1220
    As we should all know now with these it’s a very fickle evolution and small details will cause big changes in outcome. Looks pretty likely though we have a developing strong offshore low and easterly wind that causes beach erosion/flooding.
  23. jm1220
    We have to watch for where any deform axis sets up west of the low, and any strong easterly flow would favor eastern slopes for heavier rains. Biggest concern of course is the strong easterly flow winds pounding the beaches over 2+ days and flooding in the back bays.
  24. jm1220
    Looks like about 0.3” in general east of the city, a few spots with a little more. Another disappointment/bust.
  25. jm1220
    And it makes intuitive sense that more Siberian snow creates a contrast with the warm W PAC near Japan and enhances the Pacific jet. The warm mid latitudes may be altering the Hadley Cell which some have pointed out. So to me it makes sense how these factors work together to ruin our pattern where I live for snow. I don’t like it but the planet and its feedbacks don’t care what I want. Guess I can buy a cabin in ME for the winter where there are still plenty of very snowy winters left to look forward to.
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