jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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If we have an endless stream of kicker shortwaves like last winter, suppression/OTS a definite possibility. Still way too early to nail anything down obviously.
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We’ve had accumulating snow right down to the beaches in less than ideal cold-Nov 2018 being the most recent example but numerous others. We really just don’t want the wind shifting to onshore.
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Yep, this time of year especially we need a strong cold air source on storm day, if that high slips east winds turn onshore and it’s game over.
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If we can keep the western ridge, it should keep the SE ridge in check enough to give us a chance at a good storm track near the coast. There should be cold air to the north to pull down. But if we lose that ridge we risk it turning into a SWFE buzz kill because the SE ridge will respond and overwhelm it.
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If we’re dealing with an overrunning SWFE parade I’ll gladly pass. 95% of those are quick sleet to rain, just rain or slop to rain here while we watch I-90 get 6”+. Gradient patterns here are way more often than not lame crap. If we can get storms to slide SE of here or redevelop south of our latitude I’ll be more interested.
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Rather have a juiced STJ and storm chances vs the northern stream dominant during Nina’s. That causes SWFE/cutter favored patterns and Miller Bs that can develop too late. I’d say I-84 is the cutoff for where Nina is a better winter on average vs Nino.
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One trillion percent pass on that month and season here where we watched I-90 get buried over and over while it cold rained IMBY. Looks like a SWFE parade being favored which I’ll never be a fan of where I am despite the one or two rabbits out of the hat that can luck out. I’m sure you’re drooling though.
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The worst for me is the cold/dry. If it won’t snow I’d rather it be mild. Last winter was the worst for that reason-so much wasted cold.
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Trough east of Hawaii rule-that trough should push east but we have to be patient until probably second half of the month. Hopefully the SE ridge can be muted by then.
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I mean one day we will have that pattern in place again but for the last few winters it’s been uniquely set up to shaft this area. The results speak for themselves.
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Point and click has a low of 35, I’m at 27.
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Down to 31. Frosty outside on the deck.
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Frost was everywhere this morning here.
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Down to 27. I think that qualifies as a hard freeze.
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Temp down to 30.
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Looks like the snow level about 2100 feet here based on the radar beam height where the CC starts to show a mix. Bright banding over the south shore shows way high up it is snowing. Too bad it can’t be a month later.
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No doubt it’s been a chilly month so far. Even here we’re struggling to get past 45.
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Said it many times, there’s no way in the long run NYC can get away with repeated 40” winters without reversion to the mean of mid-20s snow averages. Add CC and it gets worse.
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Winter 2025-2026 Thoughts
jm1220 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Seems like to what extent there will be winter threats they’ll be focused on front end SWFE types and Miller Bs. They’re the best for New England, can be okay here and usually shut out south of the M/D line and west of NJ. Maybe there can be more suppressed systems like last year that can hit the places the Miller B and SWFE don’t. -
Christmas 2002 was awesome. Totally out of the blue 6-8” in a few hours mostly with the closed ULL wraparound. I think the forecast was 1-3” but the low closed off in a great spot and the snow wrapped around from upstate NY.
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My #2 favorite storm of all time. Jan 1996 is #1. Pretty sure though if I was around for Jan 2016 that would be my #1. The bullseye was actually over the south shore near JFK where it never is.
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Best we can hope for with a stout -PNA is an overrunning snow to rain type system here with a retreating high. Or a sheared to nothing squeeze play system. We need the PNA to cooperate at least a little.
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Fingers crossed, it does look like the pattern could be favorable to at least get us on the board. It might be an overrunning scenario with the SE ridge where NYC changes to rain, but we’d be on the board at least.
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The storm tracks last winter which were favored because of the Pacific jet helped Cape May and places south of there. You could see over and over again how the fast flow knocked down western ridges and sent endless kicker shortwaves that interfered with any phasing or amplification. We need the western ridge or some kind of mechanism to amplify the flow and bring the storm up the coast.
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But there’s a reason for the “bad luck” and that’s the Pacific jet is very unfavorable for good storm tracks here. We saw the western ridge keep getting knocked down and therefore storms couldn’t turn the corner last winter, or we would have too much of a SE ridge or the SE ridge link up with the Greenland block which causes inland tracks.
