jm1220

Well no, but this is a fairly easy one to call for us. Hopefully the few hour thump to start but expect the sleet and rain to dry slot. NYC can cash in on any setup, Miller A El Niño event like Jan 2016, Miller B event like 12/30/00 or the events last winter or 2/25/10, but we also get the lousy end of all of the above if the confluence is too strong or too weak or etc. We have no bread and butter event like Boston or DC. NYC is the toughest I-95 megalopolis city to forecast for during winter.

Yes-it was an overrunning event for the first part on 12/5 that was supposed to be maybe 1-2” to rain, and it ended up being the best part of the overall event around NYC. The rain line got to around Sandy Hook and stopped dead. The coastal storm redevelopment on 12/6 did a lot better in Suffolk County and there were parts that had 20” overall. Long Beach had 12-13” I think. 8” from 12/5, 4-5” from 12/6 because the coastal storm hammered Suffolk County.

Onshore flow isn’t a killer this time of year I’ll say that. VD 2007 would have been a washout for the city on east if it was 12/14 any winter.

It can happen in the right situation. 2/22/08 is around this time of year lol. 12/5/03 is the gold standard. But it’s 2-3:1 for these to be lousy sleet to rain events here while it piles up in Boston because of a lousy high or charging primary that doesn’t transfer in forever.

Pretty sure it’ll be an event where we hope for a pounding when the mid layers are still cold enough that can add up to 3-5” unless the evolution changes drastically. The real goods will be Boston to Buffalo. And hopefully the high doesn’t back down or become one that scoots out as soon as the WAA starts. These SWFEs have to evolve perfectly for around NYC to do well.

Yes-I never look at those maps other than for lols. At least that map gives the disclaimer.

3:1. 1” liquid=3” sleet. I’m not totally dismissing the GFS either but I’d wager pretty big that it’s a good bit too suppressed and cold, and that NYC would get a lot of mixing with a setup like this. This looks like one of the 07-08 SWFE events that ended up clobbering I-90 and we hoped for a few hours of heavy snow to start. It does work out sometimes like 2/22/08. I’d like to see a lot more confluence in place to force the redevelopment south enough to keep us all snow. Right now I don’t see it there and see it being a more typical SWFE outcome. And we’re forgetting how way much warmer the Canadian is, although that might also be overdone on the other end.

That map counts sleet as snow. I'd be stunned if S NJ and Philly are jackpotting in a SWFE.

S+ and gusty winds. Quick dusting on my deck/grass.

Way too early to pin down but the mid level low tracks are key for who and how much mixing happens. If the 700/850 lows go NW of you, there will be a lot of sleet/mixing. For most of the storm to be snow anywhere you’d want those lows to redevelop south of you.

GFS is interesting but as others pointed out likely too suppressed. These storms highly favor I-90. Hopefully we pick up a few hours of heavy snow to start on the front end but unless there’s a major change in the evolution it looks like a fairly typical SWFE heading into a strong high to me. Thankfully at this point the warm ocean isn’t the kiss of death near the coast it would be in December so hopefully most of the storm wouldn’t be a washout.

Decent burst here a couple minutes ago. Too warm for any to stick however. Hopefully some of these squalls make it here later.

I gave into that, my bad.

One last band developing over NJ? Could at least give another coating now that the sun is down especially. Just starting to stick on pavement here but now it’s just flurries.

If that's the case then probably. We lucked out down here a lot more than I thought, seriously would've been near a warning event if it was a few degrees colder. I definitely admit I was wrong thinking this would be a bust. You called the better than models showed event! Maybe one more burst coming up from Monmouth, fingers crossed lol. Flurries now.

If I managed 3" here on the barrier island south shore I'm sure Central Park where it was actually colder had 3-4".

Down to 31 here, maybe we can really start to accumulate soon if it can keep up. This would be an easy 5” if it was 29-30 instead. But this is a great winter reminder/mood snow event and no shoveling lol.

Up to just about 3” in Long Beach with another moderate burst now (still nothing on pavement). Very pleasantly surprised by this, I was almost certain this would be a bust.

Yeah. Coming down hard here on the south shore but barely accumulating. I’ll be back after the super bowl, it’ll be a nice sight.

Wow, heavy snow now. If only it was 30 instead of 32-33.

Long Beach

Almost heavy snow in this burst. Maybe we can make it to 3” here. Still decent stuff coming to LI for the next few hours.

I gladly eat crow. Wish I was at my place on the north shore though, sounds like double what I have in Long Beach there.

2” in Long Beach, cold surfaces only. I gladly eat crow for the city. Nice event-second snowy Super Bowl in a row! Snow picking up again with this batch coming in.

Has nothing to do with the low track, it's still a sheared out POS in general. It's about where the frontogenesis banding we're seeing set up now ends up and pivots as well as how fast the cold can get in. There are some good jet dynamics coming in to help out the banding/lifting (part of the sheared POS evolution as it won't collaborate with the well out to sea low) but I have a winners/losers sense of how this turns out not to mention the 60F most of us saw today which means light rates will stick to cold surfaces only when air temps are 32 or over. Heavy rates will help drop the temps too. Hopefully this time tomorrow after the Bengals pull off the win we all have a wintry outcome. But many setups like this fail especially near the city.