jm1220

Maybe a few in denial but most are accepting this will be a crap winter. I had 23” for Central Park which will almost certainly bust way high but I was pretty clear eyed about how a third year Nina could be a disaster. There’s time for us to go on a 2-3 week good run but if this early Feb period doesn’t do it somehow it’s hard for me to see pulling out a March miracle. I was banking on that 2-3 week run like Jan last winter and Feb 2021 getting us some decent events but it’s hard to see that happening at this point.

Might come down to nowcasting tomorrow. If we see a heavy overrunning band headed through PA/NY we’ll know the NAM’s right. If not the RGEM’s right. My goose is cooked here but good luck for northern areas.

I’d gladly settle for a 1994-95 type one and done winter. Each of our 2020-21 storms where I ended up 45” for the winter and had near 18” snowpack in Feb had rain at some point. That definitely won’t happen this winter but maybe we can get a 2/22/08 or 2/4/95 type situation and get 6” before rain and some of it survives to the end. Can’t expect much better until we see blocking or a better PNA ridge that would force a further east storm tracks.

My bet is something eventually happens where NYC gets a quick 1-3 or 2-4” event which in even the most horrendous winters happens but even that requires some luck or a change in the pattern. We can’t count on snow in lousy patterns at our latitude.

Yeah maybe we can get lucky and score some front end snow in a SWFE type event where we have a departing high. But the high can be 10 trillion MB, it’s going to scoot out of the way if there’s no blocking/50-50 to keep it in place as a low is able to cut for the lakes. It may eventually redevelop but as you said that’s good for New England not us. If tomorrow’s event had a colder airmass in front we probably would be able to score some snow but we have a marginal crap airmass so it’ll be rain for 90% of us.

If the trough axis is over the Midwest it promotes the strong SE ridge, so we get cutters. We need the Pacific to cooperate and move the West Coast ridge inland. Otherwise the general storm track will favor cutters. The big PV over Canada if that happens would just mean it gets colder in between cutters/SWFEs. We’re also not seeing signs of blocking which would force redevelopments south of us.

Without any blocking it might just be that behind the cutters in early Feb it will just get cold before the next cutter. The PNA ridge axis is still too far west to allow offshore storm tracks here. Until that ridge meaningfully comes onshore and is centered over ID/UT maybe, we keep the cutters. Maybe that’s where we can get some front end snow before rain if the general regime is colder.

It has the overrunning coming through our area so that's positive at least. But it's pretty much on its own. Just about every other model has it going well north from I-84 north.

I'm at the acceptance/"what can go wrong goes wrong" stage of this winter. My expectations are nil so if something does happen I'll be thrilled for the 45 minutes it happens for. Once we get into these New England snow favored patterns they usually stay that way it seems.

Unfortunately the new NAM totally agrees with it. All rain for the city, overrunning goes way north and nails SNE/upstate NY.

If the overrunning would come in early enough we could overcome the marginal airmass for a while, but models are shifting to any of that happening north of us. So we wait until the main precip area hits, by which time the ESE wind warms up the boundary layer too much in the city. Makes sense is right and it's what happens in 90% of these. We get the lucky 10% every once in a while like 2/22/08, 12/14/03 etc but these screw jobs are the norm. Boston to Albany might get another few inches or more and continue leaping out ahead of us since it's looking like they'll be the area the overrunning hits.

Doesn't matter much yet but 0z HRRR says the snowless streak torches on for NYC through Wed. It has any accumulating front end snow N of the city and immediately to rain elsewhere.

Ohhhhh kay.

Most attention goes to the E Pacific for the ENSO SST changes but it's also about the contrast with the W Pacific. The cold Nina E Pacific isn't all that cold, but the scorching W Pacific enhances the Nina pattern. It'll be interesting to see if the next Nino can cause that to shift.

There's more of a subtropical jet from the Pacific this year probably from the warm waters near Japan which help fuel the parade of storms across the Pacific. Bluewave can probably explain better. Unfortunately the rain only helps to a point. So much so fast runs off quickly and doesn't soak into the ground, and fuels growth that can help spread new fires in the summer as it dries out. So they really do need repeated years of this to end the drought. The smaller reservoirs there are filled but the larger ones are still well below average from what I read. Their snowpack is well above average though which will help fill the reservoirs into the spring.

Big fat T here. Looking forward to the next awesome T on Wed into yet another washout.

Usual north bump with these overrunning type events. Probably another winner for I-90.

I just wish one of these marine heatwaves (which it’s hard to argue CC isn’t causing) can happen in a good place for us to get snow lol. It’s been routinely cooler than average the past 3-4 winters off the West Coast which promotes troughs there. If we had a marine heatwave there it would help pump the PNA ridge. The marine heatwaves off the East Coast pump the SE ridge and the one near the N Australia coast promotes the poor MJO phases and enhance the Nina signal. CC isn’t directly creating our lousy winter, it’s a plus on top of what we’re seeing. We’re just at a latitude where we can’t routinely expect banner winters, and statistically we’re due to regress to our long term average from the 40-60”+ bonanzas we had in the last 25 years. Can’t go on forever.

Down to 34 here but still not accumulating.

They'll probably get 2-3" easy today, outside shot at 4". A reminder of how much easier it is for them to get decent snow than us. Frustrating. They're way below average like here but their snow average and NYC are what they are for a reason. I think Central Park finally does get some kind of snow event where it accumulates but we need changes.

Yes and no. The block in Dec was a little too south based and it linked with the SE Ridge which turned it into a disaster. But with a few minor changes we could've had a biggie (and we did in a way, it was just a warm cutter but it was quite disruptive for many of us). But then the Pac Jet went crazy, which will be lousy for the East Coast no matter what since it removes all the cold air from the continent. If we can get the PV to reestablish in central Canada, the SE Ridge to subdue somewhat and the Pacific not to rampage everything, we can have a shot. If these don't happen it will continue to be a Seattle/Portland type pattern (both of these cities have more snow this winter than NYC, Seattle has 8-9" I believe so even more than Boston).

Good. Put us out of our misery then. I’d rather enjoy 60s where it’s nice to be outside. It’s still possible we have a surprise on Wed but not if the overrunning shoots north of most of us and/or the precip waits forever to start. Could easily just be a washout or very brief snow to rain.

Maybe a bit of a convergence zone developing here on the N Shore which some models showed. Still not cold enough for anything to accumulate here. Temp stuck at 35. We’ll see if the rates can cool it down a little.

White rain here, 35.

Mid day heating is close to the low point of the year and this airmass behind the low is just not cutting it. We would need a heavy burst to get anything to stick. In SNE where it’s 2-3 degrees colder that can happen. This will probably be another system where Boston jumps ahead by a few more inches.