jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Last winter they did much better than NYC too between suppressed storms and being lucky with the late Jan blizzard. I think they ended with 37” and NYC only had 18”?
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Maybe the blocking/confluence can stay a little more stout and we don’t have as strong a S/W riding into it and it shears out a little. I still rate this as unlikely but having a prayer vs totally screwed is a positive.
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The Keep Hope Alive run here on the north shore. I’d need to see more runs do the same but the fast decaying primary is really the only way NYC has a prayer with this one.
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Willing to bet very strongly that’s incorrect in a SWFE with 980s low west of Buffalo, with retreating confluence. I could see in a best case scenario a lot of sleet but even that’s far fetched when we also have strong ESE surface winds.
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Maybe. We’ll see what happens and what we can wet bulb down to. It could definitely be a sleet fest for many if we’re just a degree or two colder. Soundings do support frozen to start especially if it goes heavy quickly.
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We’ll have snowy winters again here. We just need this constant perma-Nina to end. We were also overdue for duds after the bonanzas over the last 20 years. Averages and climo always reassert themselves and we balance out. As has been mentioned many times we don’t live in Boston so we can’t expect their climo, even though if anything they’re more overdue than us.
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With SWFEs precip usually starts sooner than expected but since there’s a good amount of confluence, the precip might get eaten up by dry air for a while. We probably get the vast majority of what we’ll get within 6 hours or so because there’s a huge dry slot that will come in on Tue AM. But we won’t wet bulb down to 32, we have an onshore strengthening wind and these always have the nasty mid level warm layer, so most likely it’s sleet then to rain within an hour in the city.
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As expected and has been clear for the last 2-3 days. Boston has many ways they can get a good total, maybe 10”+ from an evolution like this where we just cold rain. SWFEs absolutely suck outside the diamond in the rough every few years. Very Nina climo as well and we need that to end.
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When any improvement gets to within day 5 I’ll start to care. I’m done with the 8-10 day model hallucinations. I’m sure any “improvement” will come just in time to drive back door fronts in for spring though.
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Look at soundings before any clown snow map outputs. I haven’t for this run but for me if the primary low is driving up west of Buffalo it tells me all I need to know for what I should expect.
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3/20/18 was good in Long Beach but way better where I am now where there was up to 18”. I had 10” or so of absolute glop. 4/7/03 was another where there was easily 6” on the south shore in the middle of the day. But so many others I remember white rain or struggles to accumulate while the N Shore did so easily.
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It’ll probably be a coating to a half inch which will be nice to see but will be gone a few hours later or as soon as the sun can get to it.
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It’s really the densely populated part of S Nassau that’s bad. N Nassau where there’s elevation and more thinly populated isn’t as bad with the UHI. Even Bayside/Douglaston isn’t so bad. They can do well in marginal events that I remember SW Nassau especially being white rain.
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If you’re referring to 1/12/11 it was probably 8-9” in Long Beach. It was just something of a late bloomer like you said that nailed Suffolk County and especially CT. The dividing line here is really the LIE I’d say, which is where the terrain becomes elevated/hilly. Distance from the UHI also helps but the few extra miles from the ocean influence also help.
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The snow average where I am is I’d say 35”, NorthShoreWX has Smithtown at 38” going back to the early 1990s I think. That’s on par with or better than S CT. It’s worlds different here than SW Nassau where I grew up. It’s not like interior New England here for sure but coastal CT/RI, sure. 2018-19 and 2020-21 even were laughably different at times between Long Beach and here. Many more early and late freezes as well being away from the UHI. Most don’t realize that the Sound actually helps enhance LI snowfall as well in major events where we have strong NE winds bring some moisture as well as an orographic lift/frictional convergence component. In the late Jan 2022 major event it was blindingly obvious how the Sound effect helped linger the snow. If people think there’s no difference between the two areas, try the comparison over a few winters and it becomes pretty apparent. We’re definitely not a snow belt but it does help here and there and it does add up in normal winters, not atrocities like this year.
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UKMET hasn't looked terrible for Mon PM/Tue for second run now and it's the furthest south with the evolution but wouldn't jump on it until another reliable model heads that way.
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What we do get on Mon night/Tue will probably be in and out in 8 hours since the primary low will drive the dry slot in before the coastal can take over-on all the modeling at this point unless you're well into CT or way upstate. And on the GFS at least for my immediate area on the north shore it shows a close shave between very cold rain, sleet and even snow if the heavy precip can cool the column down on the soundings. Based on that it's possible that much of Suffolk gets a ton of sleet from this and can avoid a washout. In the city the soundings look a little milder. But my bet is still that anyone near the coast gets quick sleet to rain, and a ton of sleet north of the city to near I-84. Saturday looks interesting for wintry/mood snow but doesn't look like more than the few coatings to half inch we've gotten this "winter". I guess it'll be nice for the few hours it's around.
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As you go further east on LI, the climate becomes more New England like. NYC is a transition spot between Mid Atlantic and New England-like climates. NYC can be slammed with just about every winter storm type but totally screwed at the same time, and almost always ends up near the gradient. The upcoming Tue storm SWFE to Miller B is the type that just about always will clobber Boston unless there's a major shift in its evolution. We don't have a winter storm type here that will always clobber us-we always sweat until the very end. But this one is clearly trending the wrong way.
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We could still get a nice snow event in that timeframe if we can line up a well timed system and some blocking. To me that kind of cold anomaly everywhere might just mean cold and dry but we’ll see.
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What's more relevant for us are the lows shown headed NW of Buffalo. Not sure what the trend over time with those has been but I've never seen a good outcome here where we have a low in the 980s headed NW of Buffalo. We want that low to be dying off way sooner than that. You also have to look at the individual members for snow to see if a few crazy members are throwing the mean off.
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I highly doubt it but Godspeed I guess. My guess is they end up between 25-30" but you're right that it's relatively easy for you guys to go on a crazy few week run. On their way there hopefully we peasants down here can be granted a day or two with enough snow to cover the grass, that will stay for more than the hour long intervals we've had a coating so far. I'll be more than happy to settle with that. And then hopefully not shiver in months of backdoor fronts like we suffered the last two springs.
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Below normal in southern ME but not terribly so. Portland ME has 34" for the season, their average up to now is 49". Gray ME which is near Portland has 42.7", their average up to now is 59". But both sites are doing better than this time last year. Concord NH has 37.6", their average up to now is 48.7". It does get substantially worse in SNE-Boston has 9.7" so far but I think that clears their all time worst for snow and they're golden for a significant event from the Tue event unless it totally craps the bed which I guess is possible. So by this time next week it's likely they're over 20" which is still quite lousy for them but even proportionally to average much better than we'll be if we get another washout. Other New England spots: -Hartford: 9.9" so far -Worcester: 21.0" so far -Providence: 4.9" so far
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Couldn't care less about anymore model fantasies 8-10 or whatever days from now. Just end this nightmare. At least DC gets their 80 degree day today while we get socked in 38 degree raw gunk.
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We can cash in on any number of storm types when the pieces align but also get absolutely shafted. This winter represents climo Nina to the nth degree. New England usually does perfectly fine in Nina winters and can hold onto the cold air longer in the endless SWFE/cutter trains Ninas cause but we're just below the line where we need the SE ridge to be checked. Sucks.
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Was just going to say don't even bother looking. For the city/LI it's maybe brief sleet to rain. Still good N of the city but if this stronger primary idea is real it'll start hurting there too. It's a SWFE as far as we're concerned and whatever secondary does develop does so too late to benefit anyone other than eastern New England. Confluence ahead of it looks modest as well and gets kicked right out. If there's no good turnaround in this trend and soon, the majority of us are done. It'll be an I-90 focused event like so many of these end up.
