jm1220

If we’ll be “getting warm” vs now, we’re talking beach days?

Seems like it’s more than just the Nina, or factors that are enhancing the Nina beyond its typical effects. The W Atlantic is way warmer than normal which enhances the SE Ridge and the Indonesia/Australia marine heatwave seems to push the MJO into unfavorable phases for us as well as enhance the Pacific jet. That’s beyond the low end moderate Nina we have which hopefully is deteriorating. These factors seem to be working to enhance one another and have been for 3 winters now since this perma Nina started.

Thing is there has been a consistent theme all “winter” so far that the SE Ridge has been undermodeled at days 7-10 which gives these occasional pipe dream runs that turn to the reality of a cutter or SWFE by day 4-5. Models haven’t been so terrible with the fantasy storms this year which probably points to the Pacific also being so bad but it goes to show what kind of major change we need to make something happen this year. The PNA ridge axis is too far west on the models so far for the late Jan threats in addition to the SE ridge issue, so very likely they’ll end up the exact same as the other storms this winter except they may be better way inland and in NNE. There may be some help from the NAO eventually but so far doesn’t look to be enough to stop the overwhelmingly favorable setup for cutters.

Rinse and repeat literally. Without significant pattern changes this will just keep happening. We need blocking and a 50-50 low NE of us, and the Pacific to cooperate.

SWFE type events mostly trend north and we have the almost always stronger than expected 7 days out SE Ridge to help that happen so if we’re going into a gradient/SWFE pattern it’ll be great for much of New England and upstate NY I-90 and north with colder rain for most of us. I’m mostly tuning out on this “winter” until the pattern meaningfully changes. If this west based -NAO does form along with a window of +PNA we can have a turnaround period, if not we keep suffering.

Yyyyyyep. That’s why I’m happy it’s at least not pointlessly cold. If snow isn’t happening at least it’s tolerable outside. Cutters to frigid to cutters is the worst.

Any winter where we have a raging zonal Pacific jet will be a failure for us. The whole continent is flooded with maritime air, it encourages the SE Ridge and any threat is ruined because it will want to cut way west of us. We need major changes- for the PV to reestablish on our side of the pole, the PNA to amplify and some blocking to appear which would hopefully make a dent in the corresponding raging SE Ridge. I see some hope in the longer range but nothing I would jump on. Quite likely Jan is ruined and now we’re hoping for Feb to improve. Feb in a Nina is usually horrible in the East (although I know what’s going on resembles a Nino in some ways).

FYP

SWFE events rarely produce for people near the coast here. We need blocking or something to force redevelopment and we all see how the SE Ridge is usually under modeled. Doesn’t do us much good to start a pattern where I-90 Boston to Buffalo starts getting nailed but at least our rain is colder after an hour of slush.

The 222hr/282hr/312hr metro area is having a blockbuster winter this year. My future virtual ruler and future virtual snowblower are all set!

If you mean CA yes. If you mean the NW like Montana and Wyoming, just about the only thing as consistent as our warm winters are now are their cold/snowy winters. The perma Nina has been very kind to them.

I wish I could move to hr222. Looks like an awesome place.

Maybe 1850 is a better example but still, climate change isn't directly causing this warm/awful stretch. It's enhancing it for sure, and more research needs to be done on these massive marine heatwaves and how they lead to long term repeating pattern shifts like these. The very warm W Pacific is leading to this insane repeating Pacific jet pattern for example and acting as an enhancer to this now 3 year Nina. The very warm offshore waters here are enhancing the SE Ridge.

Climate change is a “plus” on top of this awful stretch this winter but if it was 1750 this pattern would still probably mean no snow. Zonal raging Pacific jet is never good for us.

97-98 would’ve been a very good winter with just a little more cold air. The El Niño was so powerful that it flooded N America with warm air. There were some good benchmark storms that were ruined because of Pacific air.

Boston is up to 1.2" on the season. Pathetic but they're over 1".

That storm by far is what got me into weather. I was just amazed at what was happening from start to finish.

We need at least some access to non-Pacific garbage air. If we had a low rapidly deepening SE of us it could do it, as the crashing heights could make it cold enough to snow everywhere. But this 200-hr storm even if it does go SE of us, cuts off the low so soon that it just becomes engulfed in maritime air around it. Or it could go the way of the rest of the Nina crap so far this winter and cut to the lakes. Either way isn't good for most of us. Maybe the forever cut off low SE of us could be okay for NW areas.

We need a cold air source. If the low just cuts off and spins forever, it’ll just drag in maritime air. The continent is already flooded with Pacific air. Big low to our south doesn’t always mean snow.

I'll gladly take the one decent event 2/4/95 snow to rain and call that a night at this point.

Until mid spring models usually under forecast warm spells like these. Warm down sloping winds and lack of evapotranspiration from leafed out trees (unless models have been upgraded to account for this). In this case the much warmer than average waters probably help quite a bit.

52 at Captree. Jan 4th sea breeze front lol.

So glad we have that to look forward to.

No offense but I would take what Bluewave says over likely yet another 10 day model mirage. He’s explained over and over why these mirages happen and we know how they turn out.

Models failed on the overrunning shooting north of us. Pouring here too.