jm1220

Down to 22 here.

He still posts outlooks on Twitter.

Quebec City which has the same climo would be way better.

If anything decades from now their snow average might go up since they’re a long way from facing the R/S line on a regular basis and a warmer climate would likely cause more moisture laden storms making it further north. Meanwhile our climate will become more like the VA Tidewater.

Climo says I should have 35”. I have 8.5 and that’s about the highest in NYC/LI/I-95 corridor in NJ. NYC has 2.3” which is less than 10% of climo, etc. This was just an awful Nina-coupled winter which favors places that “should” be snowier and totally screws people that “should” be less snowy but still typically get 1-2 big and several smaller events per winter. It’s skewed from the bonanza seasons in the last 10-15 winters but getting almost nothing is definitely not climo.

With the upcoming pattern switching to milder I’d say 95% chance that accumulating snow is over for most of the metro save I-84 and north. at the to the low predictions in this thread. I’m going with 8.5” for my seasonal total. Assuming my average is 35” that’s 24% of average. This winter scores a big fat F.

Really can’t be any worse next winter.

I hope we can avoid the back door front parade this year. The utter fail Winter 19-20 featured snow on Cinco de Mayo. If we can get stretches of days in the mid 60s and sunny-perfect.

That’s probably from the lack of snow there. There definitely was a downslope screw area west of the Taconics/Berkshires.

All the rain here from early in the week should do away with any abnormally dry here. The cutoff for data in the report is Tue 8:30am so it likely wasn’t considered.

Thanks. Upton ended with 1.1”.

LGA and JFK reported 0.1”.

The late 90s also had a strong La Niña after the record Nino. Either very strong ENSO signal is usually bad for us.

I could go on forever about the different LI climate zones by themselves and what’s favored here vs NYC but I digress lol.

IDK why anyone follows him anymore. I haven’t read one of his forecasts in at least 10 years.

Robert Moses lol.

Boston’s is around 49” now. The crushers in the 2010s especially 14-15 helped a lot. The eastern 2/3 of Suffolk County should be thought of as New England climate-wise more than Mid Atlantic. It’s really just an extension of S CT and RI. Some North Shore areas from my backyard and east average just as much snow as coastal CT and get impacted by the same types of storms. SW of NYC is Mid Atlantic climate. NYC is really the transition zone that can get blanked and bonanza’d by both storm types which makes our area especially hard to forecast for.

The intracacies of the low position, track etc absolutely. In terms of sensible weather impacts outside of maybe immediate Boston they did a good job. The models 4-5 days in advance focused in on the areas that got buried. It’s not like they were dry and someplace else got crushed. The areas on the periphery are always the toughest. If Boston was 2-3 degrees colder during the storm they’d have the 8”+ many models had there.

People east of me did better where the band hung out longer. It just dumped for a while so it started accumulating. If the band sat over Nassau County it would’ve accumulated there too. Probably not over Midtown since my street never accumulated. If it was at night I would’ve had 3” easy.

But not me! I never would’ve thought I’d get more snow than them in this setup.

The initial middle finger low into CT screwed them just like us. Boundary layer was torched and never recovered since we had no cold air source.

Beyond depressing.

Surfaces are icing up quickly here. My deck/car/surfaces where snow melted are sheets of ice.

Down to flurries here and some of the snow from earlier has melted. Good that you were able to hang on for longer.

Short term models did have a heavy band developing over LI but disagreed on where. It began here but got worse the farther east you go, looks like east of Rt 112 maxed out on it. It’s just luck and some effects from the sound/convergence over LI most likely.