jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Looks like they're leaning towards advisory for the immediate N suburbs and N from there. Based on today it should probably be one tier south to include the N shore and N parts of the city. There could be a pretty big difference between the south and north shores in this one because we have an ESE surface wind. The ocean is the coldest it gets all year but it still makes a difference in these marginal setups.
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RGEM would be 3-5" if the city can stay all snow. Maybe 2-4" because ratios might be under 10-1. This winter it might as well be 24".
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I’ll take anything, seriously. Sleet is annoying but at least it lasts a while. I just don’t want the sleet/snow for 30 minutes to a washout it was looking like and could still end up if the GFS/NAM end up right.
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We’ll see. I’m in a better place than most of the city and definitely south shore but it’s not worth a ton. If the WAA isn’t too intense maybe we can stay snow. Stronger WAA means more precip but also more sleet/rain. I’ll gladly take a few inches if it means we can stay snow. Rather that than heavy precip that flips to rain like everything else.
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Try 10x. 4” would be 10x Central Park’s total.
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Yep, the way it gets NYC so cold for the event is that the S/W dampens out and gets chewed up between the block and SE ridge. A stronger S/W and therefore more precip would mean a further north/warm outcome because there would be more WAA. So if somehow we do get mostly snow there's a hard ceiling on what we can expect. Our ceiling is probably a 2-4, 3-5" type event. And other models disagree and have it warmer so we'll have to see where it trends over the next day. You're right that sleetfest is probably the most likely outcome right now near the city.
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So far here it was a brief burst of flurries that didn’t even accumulate from what I see, so another trace and from here it looks like we’re stuck in a virga hole. But good for those who do have snow on the ground.
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Wow, sucks for them. I said “golden unless there’s a major change in the evolution”, looks like the major change is happening. The storm just kinda dies out as it keeps going east into the confluence because the shortwave peters out, and there’s no phasing/interaction to deepen a coastal low. But hey, good for us then. We have less than 1” for most in this sub forum. I wouldn’t expect anything major near the coast but a nice 2-4” or 3-6” type plowable event would be a godsend this winter. “Golden” has shifted to interior CT and Hudson Valley lol.
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Wouldn’t mind a sleet fest actually. At least that accumulates and it takes longer for it to melt.
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I mean we can't actually have a winter where the Hollywood Sign ends with more snow than Central Park, right?
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Because of the fast moving/progressive pattern and -PNA which encourages the SE ridge. We have transient blocking for the Mon event but we still have to deal with a 980s mb low moving into Ontario. We don’t have a pattern that reinforces cold air here so we get these one or two day things that then go right back to prolonged warmth.
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Upton going very conservative for the city/LI/south of I-80 and I agree. Euro and GGEM are nice to look at but I'd wait until tomorrow before getting optimistic especially when the GFS and UKMET still suck and how we know SWFEs usually trend at the end. Interior CT and the Hudson Valley are looking better though.
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Flurries starting here.
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GFS has been lousy for this storm here for days and favored upstate and SNE. Interesting battle between Euro and GFS, we’ll see which is right. It’s just hard for me to see a SWFE being a good outcome for most of us, 95% of them end up going to crap. But maybe this will be the 5% that defies the odds. The trend with the blocking is just as important. For us to have a chance we need it to hold on.
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It won't but verbatim 7-8:1 would still be a plowable/moderate event and could increase Central Park's snow for the season by 1000%. But I'm still expecting the inevitable tick back north these have. The dampening shortwave is the fly in the ointment that might prevent that though.
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This "winter" has one hell of a sense of humor. LA snow dusts Hollywood sign as winter storm tightens grip (yahoo.com) Why experts say this could be biggest snow event in decades - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)
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Euro does look snowy from I-78 north with the Mon PM/Tue storm but it's due to shearing out/weakening the S/W which weakens the precip overall and forces it south under the confluence. A stronger wave would nudge it north. It has minor snow/coating for tomorrow. We get split by one area going upstate and another going through S NJ. I'd gladly take whatever snow we get and if by some miracle it's a plowable snow even better. This winter is so pathetic that the Hollywood Sign's beating NYC in seasonal snow now. Never thought that day would ever come.
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True. Like I said we’ll see what happens here. Seems to be overall a weaker/ sheared out trend too, but a stronger wave would try to erode the confluence more.
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0z GFS still garbage for Mon/Tue.
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Snow ratios in this will be less than 10-1 most likely since the best lifting won't be in the DGZ which is -12 to -18C. The mid levels will be warmer since the strong WAA will be coming in. I took a sounding near HPN at 81hr and the DGZ isn't entirely saturated and it's all the way up at 15000-17000 feet. Column isn't fully saturated until you're down at 700mb which is where the strong WAA starts and you're already close to 0C. Edit I checked the 18z run by mistake but at 75hr at the same spot the idea is the same. It does have the entire column 1C cooler or so, so the run did trend a bit cooler.
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It has a mid 980s low headed through N Michigan. I'll never be thrilled with that although it does start to form the coastal low fairly quickly. It's some snow to a crap ton of sleet where I am, probably a quick change to rain on the south shore/southern NYC. The warm layer comes in quick at 750-800mb so there's definitely still some good WAA. Looks like it's battling some dry air once you get into New England and the good dynamics from the developing coastal system that stays a little suppressed could hurt them verbatim. IMO this is about as good an outcome as we can hope for around NYC unless there's a major change in the evolution and the primary dies a lot quicker. My money is on this trending north again like almost every SWFE does at the end, it goes back to the good snow being focused on I-90/Boston and we have the quick sleet to rain near the city. But maybe this can be the diamond in the rough SWFE I mentioned earlier that comes along every few years and the confluence/blocking can really make a difference this time. Who knows.
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In reality that would probably be a ton of sleet. Haven’t looked at the soundings from that run but that’s what I’d do before looking at any snow maps. Models do have a ton of precip falling in a short period of time before a dry slot so maybe the heavy rates can cool the column down.
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NAM is always insanely amped at 84hrs. But shows the range of possibilities. RGEM would likely be a sleetfest for northern NYC/north shore and rain on the south shore. Shows temps for me at around 32-33 at the height of the precip and a nasty 750-800mb warm layer and 36-37 on the south shore which would be warm enough for rain.
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I think 2.4” is needed to avoid the record.
