jm1220

Ohhhhh kay.

Most attention goes to the E Pacific for the ENSO SST changes but it's also about the contrast with the W Pacific. The cold Nina E Pacific isn't all that cold, but the scorching W Pacific enhances the Nina pattern. It'll be interesting to see if the next Nino can cause that to shift.

There's more of a subtropical jet from the Pacific this year probably from the warm waters near Japan which help fuel the parade of storms across the Pacific. Bluewave can probably explain better. Unfortunately the rain only helps to a point. So much so fast runs off quickly and doesn't soak into the ground, and fuels growth that can help spread new fires in the summer as it dries out. So they really do need repeated years of this to end the drought. The smaller reservoirs there are filled but the larger ones are still well below average from what I read. Their snowpack is well above average though which will help fill the reservoirs into the spring.

Big fat T here. Looking forward to the next awesome T on Wed into yet another washout.

Usual north bump with these overrunning type events. Probably another winner for I-90.

I just wish one of these marine heatwaves (which it’s hard to argue CC isn’t causing) can happen in a good place for us to get snow lol. It’s been routinely cooler than average the past 3-4 winters off the West Coast which promotes troughs there. If we had a marine heatwave there it would help pump the PNA ridge. The marine heatwaves off the East Coast pump the SE ridge and the one near the N Australia coast promotes the poor MJO phases and enhance the Nina signal. CC isn’t directly creating our lousy winter, it’s a plus on top of what we’re seeing. We’re just at a latitude where we can’t routinely expect banner winters, and statistically we’re due to regress to our long term average from the 40-60”+ bonanzas we had in the last 25 years. Can’t go on forever.

Down to 34 here but still not accumulating.

They'll probably get 2-3" easy today, outside shot at 4". A reminder of how much easier it is for them to get decent snow than us. Frustrating. They're way below average like here but their snow average and NYC are what they are for a reason. I think Central Park finally does get some kind of snow event where it accumulates but we need changes.

Yes and no. The block in Dec was a little too south based and it linked with the SE Ridge which turned it into a disaster. But with a few minor changes we could've had a biggie (and we did in a way, it was just a warm cutter but it was quite disruptive for many of us). But then the Pac Jet went crazy, which will be lousy for the East Coast no matter what since it removes all the cold air from the continent. If we can get the PV to reestablish in central Canada, the SE Ridge to subdue somewhat and the Pacific not to rampage everything, we can have a shot. If these don't happen it will continue to be a Seattle/Portland type pattern (both of these cities have more snow this winter than NYC, Seattle has 8-9" I believe so even more than Boston).

Good. Put us out of our misery then. I’d rather enjoy 60s where it’s nice to be outside. It’s still possible we have a surprise on Wed but not if the overrunning shoots north of most of us and/or the precip waits forever to start. Could easily just be a washout or very brief snow to rain.

Maybe a bit of a convergence zone developing here on the N Shore which some models showed. Still not cold enough for anything to accumulate here. Temp stuck at 35. We’ll see if the rates can cool it down a little.

White rain here, 35.

Mid day heating is close to the low point of the year and this airmass behind the low is just not cutting it. We would need a heavy burst to get anything to stick. In SNE where it’s 2-3 degrees colder that can happen. This will probably be another system where Boston jumps ahead by a few more inches.

I don’t have access to the 6z but the 0z Euro looked more NAM like with the overrunning. CMC is a disaster because it holds it back until it’s too warm.

All about where that initial overrunning wave goes and if it comes in like a wall or showery/broken up. If we’re hit with that like the NAM shows and Euro to an extent we could get a surprise. If it waits until it’s too warm or overrunning shoots over us to the north we won’t get much of anything before the washout.

CC has this band as mostly snow but temps are in the upper 30s. Might start as R/S mix but the tale will be how heavy it can get so it can cool the temps down. Light snow at 34-35 won’t stick.

I vaguely remember the early Feb 1995 storm, and that it snowed quite a bit but ended as heavy rain in Long Beach.

It’ll probably snow for a while near the coast but the BL will be too warm for it to stick unless it can snow hard enough to get it to 32. So it’ll be a lot of white rain which models seem to be alluding to anyway.

Judging by the radar in E PA, most of us should at least get a period of snow as that precip pivots through. It might just be white rain for many though unless it can crash the temp down to near 32. The upper levels are cooling enough though to allow snow.

Where the overrunning precip goes when it's still cold enough is very important, GFS does have a period of snow on Wed before it gets too warm. RGEM holds the precip back until it's too warm and the NAM seems to overshoot it north of NYC and it doesn't really get going near the coast until it's too late. Regardless, the snow will be washed away for 90% of this subforum by the end of it.

RGEM shuts out most south of I-84 on the rest of this storm and Wed. Warmer than most other models but a distinct possibility if the ESE flow gets to work on the boundary layer before the precip moves in, the main overrunning push when it would be cold enough misses us, etc.

But your new snowblower!

It’s the 3k NAM but the latest run had a nice ending for this evening/tomorrow’s storm especially for the city and east. I doubt it amounts to much but there’s an outside chance this CCB can develop and impact most if the upper air lows can develop enough and keep moisture as the column cools back down. The best odds for that are probably in CT and Suffolk County.

And Wed could actually be a decent front ender for I-84 and much of NE PA/central PA/mid Hudson Valley. It's not much colder there but the ESE wind isn't a killer there like it is near the coast and there is enough of a high it's coming into so there's a good period of overrunning before the warm surface air comes in. The Euro has an area of 6-10"+ from State College/Altoona through Albany. That I can see happening, but then again the sleet always ruins things before models expect since they often underdo the warm mid levels, so something to watch.

If the snow is coming in on 15-20 mph and increasing ESE wind, any snow near the city and coast will be very short lived. The preceding airmass is stale at best for this time of year so even if it comes in like a wall it'll be fighting to get the temp down to 32 for the period of time before warm surface air surges in. Couldn't care less what the Euro or any model shows, it's a story that's happened here again and again. If it comes in showery/broken up, maybe there's a brief snow/sleet mix that goes very fast over to rain and may not even accumulate. If it comes in heavy/like a wall, I can see there being a quick inch or so north of the LIE on Long Island where it's sheltered a bit from the onshore flow and immediate NW suburbs. The advisory type amounts would be around I-84 and NW of I-287. Any snow outside the far NW areas will be gone by the end since surface temps will surge into the 40s and around 50 near the city/coast.