Indystorm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 937 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC031-121500- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200412T1500Z/ DE SOTO LA- 937 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL DE SOTO PARISH... AT 937 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOGANSPORT, OR 12 MILES WEST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MANSFIELD, KEACHI, GRAND CANE, LONGSTREET, GLOSTER, CARMEL, FRIERSON, KICKAPOO, KINGSTON AND REEDS STORE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 858 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN KINNEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... WEST CENTRAL UVALDE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 930 PM CDT. * AT 858 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BRACKETTVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BRACKETTVILLE, SPOFFORD, ANACACHO, TURKEY MOUNTAIN AND FORT CLARK SPRINGS.

Meso out for upcoming tornado watch for north Texas to the east of the present watch.

And that loop also shows the initial WAA storms getting out of the way and off to the north.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 407 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 445 PM CDT. * AT 406 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER RULE, OR NEAR HASKELL, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... HASKELL AROUND 420 PM CDT. IRBY AROUND 445 PM CDT. First tor warning of this episode.

And so this Easter outbreak episode possibly begins with the first of many watches starting in nw and west TX and sw OK which will probably continue through tonight, Easter Day and night, and possibly Monday as well in the Carolinas.

And in some action for Good Friday night.... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 855 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * AT 854 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTH OF REAGAN COUNTY AIRPORT, OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG LAKE, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... THE INTERSECTION OF US 190 AND HIGHWAY 163.

Well, mother nature is amoral....brute force is brute force. It's not out to get us. It follows laws of physics and thermodynamics. But your concern with something of this magnitude happening with Covid-19 impacting us is certainly warranted.

Barely a 75? It's also at a later hour, isn't it?

MEG depicts the incongruity of this situation when they say that spotters will be needed Sunday while being sure to follow all CDC guidelines.

I am not criticizing. I am extending a compliment. Saying that I love the discussion is not meant in a sarcastic way.

I mean to say that it is the job of good mets in my thinking to acknowledge high end potential and then watch for all the things that could possibly work against that outcome and lower expectations. On 3/28 the moderate risk outlook for western IL had very high lapse rates, but the anticipated moist low levels did not arrive. Jonesboro had the moisture.

I love the way you and other mets are admitting this could be quite a high end event and then picking all the variables that could mitigate that outcome. To me that is what good mets do as we approach the day itself.

And excellent low level moisture. The 3/28 moderate risk over western IL busted because the moisture did not reach as far north as expected. Unfortunately Dixie is much closer to the Gulf.

Vivid lightning to my nw....sheet, cg, and anvil crawlers Thanks for the concern, Jack.

Here it comes as storm is intensifying BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 758 PM EDT WED APR 8 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... WESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... SOUTHWESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 900 PM EDT. * AT 758 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... INDIANAPOLIS, ANDERSON, CARMEL, FISHERS, NOBLESVILLE, LAWRENCE, GREENFIELD, LEBANON, ZIONSVILLE, WESTFIELD, CUMBERLAND, CICERO, MCCORDSVILLE, PENDLETON, FORTVILLE, WHITESTOWN, SHERIDAN, INGALLS, LAPEL AND NEW PALESTINE. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 123 AND 152. INTERSTATE 69 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 200 AND 221. INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 86 AND 104. INTERSTATE 74 NEAR MILE MARKER 39.

Heading right for me in a bit 000 NWUS53 KIND 082333 LSRIND PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 733 PM EDT WED APR 8 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0705 PM HAIL WILLIAMSPORT TO ATTICA 40.29N 87.29W 04/08/2020 E1.00 INCH WARREN IN PUBLIC TWITTER REPORTS OF HAIL ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES FROM 7:05-7:15 PM EDT. &&

Ya, and we are not yet even under a watch......correction.....tor watch just issued.

I'm thinking a tor watch might be issued for central/southern IN based on the latest SPC meso discussion. Concerned about those cells in IL forming a bowing line as they enter Indiana moving se.

Tor watch now for southern IL area where richer dew points reside.

That svr storm up by Chicago certainly surprised me.

Am I correct is assuming that dew points mixing out and very high lapse rates are more conducive to large hail formation than high dew points and high lapse rates?

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 329 PM CDT WED APR 8 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN MCDONOUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT. * AT 329 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR IOWA ARMY AMMUNITION PLANT, OR NEAR BURLINGTON, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FORT MADISON, BUSHNELL, LA HARPE, ROSEVILLE, DALLAS CITY, STRONGHURST, GOOD HOPE, PRAIRIE CITY, CARMAN, TERRE HAUTE, RARITAN, SCIOTA, GULF PORT, LITTLE SWAN LAKE, NIOTA, DISCO, WALNUT GROVE, GREENBUSH, LOMAX AND BERWICK.

Don't know how much to trust this morning's 12z NAM since it is showing strong tor potential around Terre Haute and Evansville this evening. It was way incorrect in predicting svr storms for central IN for late last night. I'm thinking winds are much more unidirectional with today's episode and the concern is for large hail once again. Thoughts?

Enhanced area expanded in the 1300 SPC outlook.