wxmeddler
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Everything posted by wxmeddler
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Friends don't let friends use the 3KM NAM for Wind Gusts
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Wow, actual high wind watch for Somerset and VA Eastern Shore counties
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Gonna be done here shortly... Comma head is going by and dryslot incoming.
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Newest aircraft departure sounding 20 min ago. Still could wetbulb in the lowest levels but saturated around 850 would be sleet/rain mix
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It's pretty clear from the depth of the warm layer that most if not all of the snow east of I-81 is going to be 8:1 slop. The depth also throws out any elevation advantages in the Piedmont out the window. Best we can hope for is rates and dynamic cooling overcome.
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It used to, it doesn't much anymore in the past 5 years or so. DMV Winds from GOES and NPP-Era sounders do most of the heavy lifting these days. Balloons are good for calibration and reality check.
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I "like" the RGEM take on things, probably a bit too wet but good representation of what we're thermally dealing with.
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Wow, that's a really flat wave from the NAM. Way outside the consensus.
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It probably will. This is a N MoCo / Carroll and west event. Will probably even get tricky with RA/SN in the lower elevations the Monocacy River Valley.
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This is what I'd call a "High Chance of Disappointment" Profile. Even higher elevation won't save you from the mixed bag possibility. Go west young man!
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Almost no change to the overall look between 12z and 18z over mid-atl. Might be settling in. GFS still wiggling around. Looks like a solid hit to the classic northern/higher elevation spots (Fredrick/Carroll/ WV PH / MD PH)
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Still lots of change going on... trend for now seems to be a much weaker/flatter wave. Classic trend towards the gulf stream baroclinic zone as well.
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Wait for the PIVOT..
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Thankfully the trend has been more offshore with the LLJ winds... There is an insane patch of ocean though that is going to be 50G80kts offshore in the warm waters though. Heck of a swell coming for New England.
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Cold sinks gonna cold sink
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Only the NAM is trying to bring some of those 925mb winds down to the surface. Given the water temperatures off the coast and the easterly flow, I'm not sure how successful those winds are going to mix down. Real knife edge though, as if it doesn't mix it's 30G40 but it does you get 40G60+..
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I'd thought I'd dust off the ol' account now that I'm back on the area. ..and thank you!
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I'm very tired...
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$100 bucks for a 6 foot mound of snow and 20" on the front lawn...That's worth every penny. Epicness. -
What is your water bill?
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Mid-Atlantic Snow forecast For January 25 (Final)
wxmeddler commented on Ellinwood's blog entry in Ellinwood's Weather Blog
The DC split is for real... -
Classic. -
Low stratus/fog Keeping Temps Down For Some
wxmeddler commented on thunderman's blog entry in thunderman's Blog
Fog everywhere man! There was reports from the Bay Bridge (Annapolis) of visibilities down to <100 ft at 8 PM.Millersville has been stuck in the Conestoga Rivers fog bank for 24 hrs and counting. Went outside and took a pic. Down to <300 ft. Feels like you could drink the air. [img]http://imageshack.us/a/img834/7474/20121209024151150.jpg[/img]
