wxmeddler

Totals for liquid might be a little low near the M/D line due not capturing snow/sleet.

I've been working on this RD-QVP script for the last few weeks. I was hoping that this event could show off it's capabilities, but in the end it's just very sad. We had no chance.

All hail the Dec. 5th magic!

12:24z BWI 12:09z DCA: 12Z LWX (Balloon):

Profilers from MDE are wind only. I don’t know of any microwave radiometers in the area that would provide temperature. There might be a fortunately timed ACARS takeoff/landing at one of the big 3 airports but I’d have to look when I get into work.

My comment on 2hr delay was for the broader N/W of I-95 region in general. Places that are already under a WWA essentially. Mitch: Yes, and the snow crab is amazing

The radiational cooling is putting in work right now. If someone put a super-soaker to my head and made me call 2hr delay or not at this hour, I'd call 2hr delay. When the clouds move back in we'll likely rebound. This doesn't change what is going on upstairs though. If anything this just means higher chance of FZRA to start.

We're at the point where we want to stay clear as long as possible.

If you like wintry precip, your goal today is to get the least amount of sunshine as possible, OR hope that the clear skies last as long past 4pm as possible.

This is ugly. 850 trough over the GL/OV stronger, and we've gone from 20kts of 850 overrunning to 40kts, and further west. Weenies avert your eyes.

Heavy Freezing Rain at 30 deg isn't actually a huge problem on the surface as most make it out to be. Too much latent heat release happening. Trees / Power-lines are a concern, but you really need to be 28 or below for stuff to stick in moderate to heavy rain. The worst case is <28 and light rain, that's when you're in trouble. I think we're seeing a trend north and west with the WAA. If the surface holds at 30, might be few isolated areas that are a mess, if it gets to 32, we'll be fine disappointed.

The frontal passage is spiking the temperatures by 10+ degrees within 15 min. Mixing out the inversion + downsloping.

Looks like both

Given the near 0c temps up to 700mb. The guidance on the P-Type is going to be all over the place up until precip time. Things I would focus on now is just amount and timing of saturation. "Wintery Mix" between I-95 and US340/US15 is what I'd go with. Good news at this point the that the chance of a whiff or bust is pretty low.

Dancing on the edge of danger as always. 10kft of above -3C temps. And this is Westminster.