hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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The overnight convection that blew up west to well west of the center seems to have messed up the surface circulation a bit. The center yesterday was up at 15ºN. Now recon is finding a weak surface center way down at 13.2ºN. All the convection is still nw to well nw of this weak center. It will take a while to organize, despite the much less hostile shear environment it has moved into. All those farther northeast Euro tracks had this organizing north of where it is now.
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The GFS slows Ian to a crawl out over the gulf. By the time it finally moves inland, north of Tampa, there is not much left of it.
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The ICON moves Ian into sw Florida and stalls it.
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Hmm... I think it's a bit of a stretch to call this a tropical storm.
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The 18z Euro is nearly identical to the 12z... just a hair east and weaker... tracks directly over Grand Cayman.
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Euro begins to phase with the eastern trough... a nasty storm for the Carolinas. I don't think any of the other models are doing this, though. If the hurricane is slower getting up there or the trough pulls out a bit faster, there won't be any phase or Carolina storm.
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The 12z Euro would be worst case... the perfect track for strength and impact... spends a bit more time over the Caribbean, allowing it to strengthen more, passes over the thin part of Cuba, strengthens significantly over the Florida straights, turns into Florida before it can weaken. Charlie-esque.
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It's possible that if this storm does not hit sw Florida, instead remaining farther west over the gulf, it may not even hit land as a hurricane.
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The GFS is going to weaken significantly after 120 hours with the storm well out over the gulf, crawling along, as shear and dry air come crashing down on it.
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The Euro has jumped a good bit back southwest in the nw Caribbean over the last two runs after jumping northeast yesterday.
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Models are pretty consistently predicting notable weakening if this storm gets into the northern gulf and starts sucking in the dry air behind the big trough. The 18z GFS shows the storm really collapsing over the last 36 hours prior to landfall.
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The Euro is also amplifying the eastern US trough again, like some previous runs (prior to last night). The trough is going to capture the hurricane. Update: No capture after all, just swept out to sea.
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Even with the land interaction and limited time over the Florida straights, the Euro still shows robust last-minute strengthening. We're not talking cat 4 or anything, but pretty solid.
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Man, this run is so far northeast it tracks over the fatter part of Cuba, east of the thin part where Charley tracked. That would lead to some weakening, plus it won't have much time to recover/restrengthen before hitting far south Florida.
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The Euro is developing even farther northeast this run, and also the upper low digging down into the nw Caribbean is a bit more robust this run. This run even hits the west tip of Jamaica.
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Fiona may be trying for a new peak strength this afternoon as the satellite presentation is really looking good.
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The visible loop shows this system already has a pretty decent surface circulation just north of the islands off the Venezuelan coast. It just needs Fiona to amscray and get its outflow-driven shear out of the picture.
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The Euro is already developing the cyclone just south of Jamaica. Meanwhile, the GFS has the energy spread out all over and doesn't develop til it gets to the far nw Caribbean.
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A notable change from the Euro this run is the eastern US trough. It does not dig as far south as previous runs, so it's more like the other models now in that regard. As someone posted yesterday, that trough will be pulling a bunch of dry air down into the southeast US and Gulf of Mexico. This run of the Euro gets farther north before landfall and, over the last 18 hours before landfall, has the storm rapidly weakening from 939 mb to 970 mb because of increasing shear and a big gulp of dry air.
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There is a big timing difference between the models. The Euro's deep eastern trough means landfall is only one week away. The GFS and GDPS are ten days away because they have it missing the trough and slowing in the gulf.
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The Euro still wants to dig a deeper eastern US trough than the GFS/GDPS and turn the hurricane north earlier, resulting in a Charlie-esque track.
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This is the strongest run yet from the Euro.... 921 mb just prior to landfall in Nova Scotia.
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The latest Canadian still turns it up into the gulf, but the eastern US trough lifts out and the storm stalls.
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The 00z Euro would be a wild double-feature event for the US. Fortunately, it's unlikely to play out like that.
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942 mb per the latest dropsonde. 128 kts flight level wind 105 kts SFMR
