FLweather
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Wouldn't really say subtropical just yet. A whole lot of dry air to the south, sw, se. But it maybe transitioning https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=29L&product=wv-mid
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Yeah the models have definitely not handled this storm too well strength wise. Not really looking at globals. But if Hwrf is sniffing something out track wise. Then SSTs are very favorable for further strengthening. May be a major hurricane again once and if it makes another land fall near or north of Tampa Bay.
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Had some rain bands come through early this morning roughly 4 am. Other wise cloudy. Very thick deck of high level clouds, patchy cumulus clouds. Very impressive wind field with this storm. Not sure exactly but pretty steady breeze of 20-30 mph here in Apopka Nw of Orlando.
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When is this wet pattern going to end? Damn. I'm sick of the rain. Over the last 3 days doppler radar indicates 8-10" of rain. But the lake behind my house indicates 12"+. I've got a empty recycling can with 5"+ from the last two nights. Sunday night was the worst.
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At this point in time. He has been captured
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Pretty windy night. I doubt that with Marco Laura will be as far west though.
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The 18z gfs, nam just makes Marco totally disappear. Granted the wind shear is there. But as the center moves in a westerly direction so does the trough at 250. It retreats as the HP moves west too. I just don't see Marco basically completely vanishing within the next 24-36 hours. Hard to imagine a cat1 hurricane to remnant low with in 24-36 hours over ocean water that is particularly 90 degrees.
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That blow up of convection very impressive of WV too. Environmental conditions seems to be improving on his western side. The dry air is eroding away.
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Once Laura starts approaching Hispaniola and the Bahamian Islands. You can use this link for radar loops. You have to scroll down some. https://met.gov.bs/
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Aren't F5s capable of ripping up asphalt? If it can rip up asphalt clearly the foundation, topsoil would have been gone too. So probably a high-end 3 to 4.
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I've seen it snow in April. A week before was in the 90s. It does happen even though rarely. I was in middle school. I think it was April of 99 or 00. Any way. Kinda of depressing seeing the front stalled in N Fl the last day or so. So close but yet so far. Last good rain we had was on the 5th. That was a surprise.
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Mid and upper 90s possible for my area after Wednesday. Sure hope we don't get a repeat of last May this early in the season. 98-102. Still patiently waiting for the rainy season to get into gear. Currently near 90. Leaves are falling hella bad.
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That's wild.
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It's been dry. The drought in Tx is expanding east.
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I'll take a blend of Icon/Canadian for this coming week. Actually shows decent rain chances deep into Florida. Past several weeks the fire hose has been aligned Sw to NE well to my Nw over the panhandle AL, GA, LA, MS
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There will have to be some major changes on the h5 level to even become favorable. Icon for example. The two SW need a trajectory from Montana to Tx. Not Montana to LA, Ms, Al. It's got dig more South West.
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GFS? No.
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Who would want to got to that garbage pit? Alot nice areas around the GL.
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I know. That's the reason why I said north and west of 85. Lots of potential.
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North and west of I85 never disappoints.
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Just yalls luck. Blow through Nov, Dec, Jan then winter decides to show up mid/late Feb to March. Wonder if yall should be concerned April and May?
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Considering the gfs, icon, euro then cmc. I'd take my chances with the short range mesocale models.
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This type of setup pretty well gonna be 3 things. Rain, snow or s/s mix. No possibility of zr.
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H5 level is different as well. Further east with the SW vs 6z. Need to break ties with NS and consolidate more. It being stretched out and still attached to the NS trof is causing it to be suppressed.
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Wouldn't really call it a shift north. Models playing catch up on the over running precip. H5 looks roughly the same. Compare to earlier model runs having the right precip gradient at the TN, MS, AL, GA lines.
