RogueWaves

A true "Bevis winter" for this area was 1903-04. Just average snow total for the season, but look at all those awesome deep snow cover days and max depth! I think it hardly busted the freezing mark to keep snow depth like that around at this Latitude.

But summer is a blip on the calendar to get that. The old saying about the snowbelts of the UP "If summer falls on a Sunday.." isn't far from the truth!

Early on, iirc, his top analogs included 13-14, 14-15, & 18-19 (way back in August perhaps). His inner weenie got the better of him and he kept running with the coldest of that trio (for our region at least) when he'd have done best to hug an even warmer version of 18-19. As autumn progressed he went bolder with the colder, dragging up 92-93 & 02-03 weenie winter analogs for his region especially. Personally I would've preferred that he was correct and it was a colder if not epic snowy DJF here.

And waaay too warm. Hard to believe that's a mid-winter scenario

13th day of snow cover up my way. Not only a record for this lame winter, but a pleasant shock as well after all the rain and days above freezing here.

His insurance policy against winter insanity!

That's why I relocated to NMI snow belt back in Sept of '90. In my seven yrs up there, I quickly learned that it's not "if" winter is coming, just a matter of when. Normally had all my prep done by Nov 1st to be on the cautious side. As a SEMI native of a large population area, I can say it was a full 3 yrs before that happened for me. Even tho I was on the outskirts of Traverse in the edge of the forest, back before cells, the web, social media, casinos on every hwy, things really quieted down even there (let alone where you are now) during the cold season. Thankfully, Traverse still afforded the some semblance of "city life" like a shopping center, new cinema, etc to keep from going entirely hermit mode. My place only averaged 100" but in several good years scored 200+ but I had my choice of some nice upscale tourist destinations within a 25 mile drive as well as several nice ski resorts which I took full advantage of. Ofc, also had (3) sleds parked in the back yard and access to all the trails heading east across the Northland. Gotta love winter tho, as it was the significant season away from the immediate shoreline regions. There is a huge difference conducting daily life up there too, versus just going up for a get-away play-cation.

The last time I suffered thru a winter month of CAD was Jan of 2010 but at least we had some snow cover. The threat of CAD is over-hyped

GFS flashing more rainers for most of the Sub..can't wait for my 30 hrs of rain ending in flurries

A 9-day snowfall map from six yrs ago. Was that sh*t even real, or did we just imagine all that??

Now now. Let's not down-play. Multi-year suckage is suckage multiplied! We knew we had it coming after a string of many great ones through this region. Doesn't make it any less pathetic tho.

I haven't found this lack of sampling to be such a game-changer lately. For instance, the OHV slider that the GFS (and others) had as more of a panhandle hook. The slider look was pretty much dominant by other guidance prior to the wave getting ashore, and once it did there wasn't some massive last-minute shift. More or less just nailed the coffin on any last glimmer of cutter/hooker outcome. These last few winters have been underwhelming. Stretching avg snow totals out over a 6 month period with little staying power of any accumulations is no way to run a season. Give me the avg snow total condensed to 2 or even a solid 3 month period. Better yet, an above average amount compressed into same time frame. This is not only yawn-worthy, it's tiring, and almost a waste of time chasing ghost storms on guidance trying to guess which 1 out of 20 threats isn't just another mirage. Has to be better ways to spend one's time; like numbering the shingles on my roof perhaps..

..and 6z Euro more a NWIN hitter. Hey guidance, let's just meet in the middle at my place, eh?

^^^ Man, what did Chicago do to earn such a long shafting by the snowstorm gods??

Nah. Ain't happening. Looks too much like THIS

Not sure it's just the lake shadow in this case since the entire event verbatim is a rain-to-snow scenario, so it's just trying to guess when that transition occurs. Need this colder for all concerned, not just you beach dwellers

31/0z ICON reading you loud-n-clear

Yes

EC has a nice look for that looming d7 threat

effing Nino BS. How bout our La Nada starts acting like one!

I'm sure the GFS/NAM will begin to show it cutting up our way just like the last OHV slider. We know how that worked out..

Me too. 0z was actually friendlier for WMI. Didn't take the secondary so far west. These imbedded troughs rotating thru will have a big impact for my chances and they'll be a last-minute thing to figure out as usual.

Big improvement for MSP from 27/0z

So much for our eastern trough winter. Can we at least do as well in Jan as last winter, and maybe improve a bit on Feb. After that, I'm all spring all the time

Most models have it now. 12z GEM was almost identical to 12z Euro fwiw on the far west end of guidance at 12z Monday morning. ICON furthest east clear over in W NY. Long ways til consensus on track, spin, moisture, etc. Will have a major impact on my chances to score via Lk Mich help. Staying tuned tho. Better than nada to track