RogueWaves

Too bad that's never correct. You can tell by the way it keeps hope alive for SMI.

Whadda ya mean? Would be my biggest event of the season perhaps doubling my biggest storm. (and would fit perfectly with this POS winter)

Tell me about it. I feel like an extension of SOH with +/-1" snows that either melt on contact or within a day. This ain't winter.

Traditional 5-9 incher incoming.

Northern piece will have it's say via sampling, and bump us back a few counties south. Then it's game on for qpf, track, strength, longevity, etc..

Agree. Those were total weenie porn for our region. Still liking this potential. Just need to lose the sh*ts the bed east trends.

Current Euro seems a bit more generous with snowfall than it used to be. As for GHD-2 here is a h54 map at 10:1 and it looks beefy for Chicago. That's about the time-frame things really began to gel. 48h GFS pumped out the greatest totals on a map for my region since I've lived here ('02). And to clarify, I mean totals that were realistic.

Detroit magnet!

"some" hyperbole in my post perhaps, but the reference to Modoki ENSO states being more common and hostile to SMI is from professional sources, not just my own hunch, lol. Wrt Stevo's post, I'm not a fan of the huge swings from great months to complete dumpster fire months/periods. Like you, I much prefer some steady ground covering snows with temps to retain it. As you say tho, the past 15-ish years have been a mostly snowy and AN snowfall period. Just not liking the current string of downers. No legit Watch to Warn system in nearly 3 years and that was barely qualified in the end. Need to head back to Feb. of 2016 for a double digit storm here.

Thanks to "Modoki" everything in this warm earth era. This is a big reason why the GL's have warmed the most of any N Lat region in the CONUS. Seems whether it's a Modoki Nino or Modoki Nina, we get screwed the worst. Pretty soon, we'll be reading about "Modoki Neutral ENSO state". Just you watch. Snowmobile track racing is on life-support in our state. They actually race on ice and temps just refuse to cooperate. Ice sculpture events during "winter-fest" = forget it! Record Ice fishing rescues -> happening!

That's not zzz, that's winter! Another 0.4" today. 1.5" = largest event, with 11 of 15 amounts <1". My monthly totals for NDJ look like event totals in even the lamest of seasons. Greatest depth was 1" (but lasted <12 hrs). But hey, I could be Hoosier. At least I've had a borderline shovel event.

Snow cover baby, snow cover!

Pattern to date, mby: CAD-->WAW-->DTD-->MELT-->REPEAT

Idk? Kinda been dreaming about an 11-12 winter lately.

Weren't you touting how Nina's deliver snowy Decembers? Well..there it is.

Would be nice if this was right, but 2 days is forever in this pattern.

Congrats OH Peeps. Been a long time coming. Merry White Christmas!

If by wintry you mean more than just cold, that's not guaranteed. Especially with Chicago's history. There's another 98-99. Think of it as the evil twin of the more recent. While the EC from Florida on northeast "enjoyed" one the all-time historical (what's the acronym HECS?) blizzards in the nation's memory, Chicagoans dealt with frozen tundra. From that other futility thread: Remains to be seen exactly which "98-99" analog this winter follows, but my hand is primed to move my $$ from the younger to the elder

Dittos this side of the pond

My old place was 1 mile NE of the airport. Whoever has it now, you're lookin good for Santa's arrival

Wasn't every model a rainer there. At least initially til the front gets through.

It hasn't been too quiet for SEMI but it's like a whole different world west of there. Ofc, we just had a nice storm with decent track but lacked cold so we got a nice December soaker. We will need cold or that will wash, rinse, repeat. My concerns about the Nina is broken-down here in these two graphics which shows it leaning warm: As for a list of Modoki vs traditional it may be in here somewhere if you look closely at the analog table: https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

This is unfortunately a Modoki Nina, and just as Modoki Nino's leave the door cracked for us to make out better than traditional Nino's, the Modoki Nina is less favorable state then the traditional Nina and leaves the door cracked for disappointment. Acting like a Nino so far, and nothing looks too eager to change. I'll be glad if you end up correct ofc. We'll see. The remote viewing of other region's storms does nothing for me personally, and the more awesome it is for them, the more depressing it is for our own sad state of affairs. Keep in mind, you've seen like 5X the snow many of us have.

Next of kin?

I remember back in '85 or maybe '86 Houghton Lake getting 12" in 4 hrs and that was nothing to do with LES. It's pretty rare but once in a while somebody in the Mitt will get some EC-like rates. Just doesn't go on for 20 hrs like over there, lol