RogueWaves

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 12z continued on that theme, focus for a possible wintry threat shifted to Friday night-Saturday. The phasing the 00z run showed seemed like an unlikely evolution vs. most of the other guidance members.

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Yesterday, all 3 globals were going for the mega-phase (I guess Ukie wasn't up for the ride) though so it seems that they were seeing something favorable for that outcome. Are the models just bad in unison or are they wired to lean towards any potential high-impact scenario on behalf of Joe Public's safety? Legit asking if you have any intel in that regard since I have often wondered why they go that route many times and it almost always unravels in the end. 

56 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes, I remember that as well. keep in mind, we still see clippers every winter. Just not as many as we used to. As long as we get more snow in the end it's all good though lol. 

Don't forget about February 1-2, 2022 and then again February 17, 2022. How on earth you did not get over 4 inches then I have no idea lol.

I did. Look closer, the 4.2" was my largest single day total. Early February was 5.6" for two days. The 17th was just 4" and there are other reports and maps to back up those sad numbers here. Thx for the reminder tho.

21-22 gave us back-to-back clipper hits twice. In late November and later January as well. Nov 27th was actually my largest single day amount the entire winter at 4.2". The clippers were far and away the better systems for me that winter from a forecast to verify perspective. 

3 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Some real lake-effect potential behind the system next week.

Some wind and perhaps mood flakes for the rest of us outside the belts. A month later, and I might get lucky like last Christmas day.

33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

One of my favorite yearly traditions is going to cut down the Christmas tree the day after Thanksgiving. Would be extra fun if it was snowing.

Did that my first year in NWMI. Apparently the poor tree was in hibernation mode and coming into my warm living room was fooled into "false spring". The main leader grew 12" and was curling off my ceiling. After that, I never did it again. 

SEMI the only ones experiencing these extreme temp swings? AA with a 42 degree flip today, beating yesterday's 31 degree delta.

12z Euro trying to make the holiday week much less boring in the wx dept

28 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Let's take one thing at a time. Snow typically falls in Michigan 8 out of the 12 months in any given year. Only JJAS are immune. I'll keep our conifers thank you.

For sure. He said it was "first time in history" when he would've been more correct to say in our brief recorded history of the weather/climo. Quite certain the period I mention had much warmer temps during that era when Europeans were able to colonize Iceland for a few hundred years before the climate pendulum swung back the other way and headed into the little ice age.

2 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Yeah, zone 7 appearing in Michigan for first time ever is a nothingburger. 

Medieval warm period says "hold my palm tree"

I believe the week after Thanksgiving has the better potential. But we'll let the models continue to sort things out as usual. 

33 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

It’s designated zone 7a for a reason. There are criteria that need to be met. Even Florida has seen below zero weather in the past.

You guys are grasping at straws to not accept the new reality coming.

What? That I can enjoy more boat-n-beach days, and fewer sled-n-ski days? Did I miss something? What's the scary reality in that? Summers of 13/14/15 were horrible. Could hardly find a decent day to enjoy our wonderful GL's. I fail to see any "wow factor" in the drum you continually beat. And I'm a gardener at heart, so I appreciate your hobby and how much effort you put into that awesome tropical look. I just see a lot of wishful thinking that FL climo is suddenly going to pounce on yby without a sudden shift of the poles - that's actually a much scarier prospect tbh. Now back to looking at the impending cold December on tap..  

56 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Forget to zoom?

So, its milder right at water's edge - shocking! I used to live there, just 1 block off the beach. Even if that avg has creeped up, what does this mean in reality? I could now put a sensitive plant or palm out and about every 3-4 winters it will fail to survive the inevitable arctic cold wave. What's the point in that? Really?

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Problem is most Ninos tend to be split flow which isn't terribly good for us, and the source region for clippers has been in a drought so those will be moisture starved.

Agree. Wouldn't be counting on clippers, but moreso some hybrids as we had in the last Nino 18-19. Main player likely STJ this winter. IF we could manage to get in the crosshairs of both tracks, that would be huge. 

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Almost any winter will have active and boring stretches. The question is, which dominates?

Taking 14-15 again, Dec 14 was about as "non-winter" as you can get. Whereas Feb 15 was about as "severe winter" as it gets around SEMI. January, at least where I was in SWMI was a mixed bag but leaned colder with slightly AN snowfall, including a warned event. 

I do get your point ofc, everyone looking for snow is not excited for a pattern that is 60-70% CAD. Mild and dry is much better like our current pattern. Even if we did split it 50/50, I much prefer that the cold and moist periods last for weeks (Feb 15) vs just days. Exception to that rule being 07-08 which we lucked out with a mega-active pattern for SMI. 

14 hours ago, Stebo said:

It has really been a boring stretch, no witch of november storm this year so far either. Maybe its a sign of the winter upcoming or maybe we are waiting until winter to get active. I would lean more toward the former than the latter but we will see down the line.

I'm thinking we see this during winter. One common analog went this back-n-forth route (14-15). Someone posted on '89. It also did the back-n-forth. It made for some very dynamic systems too, if you were lucky enough to be in the right place. NMI in that case. SMI in the case of 14-15. 

6 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, and could last a while 

MJO liking colder phases. It's the "D" in CAD that remains to be seen. 

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Fall is known as deer season for auto insurance companies.

It's called the rut

7 hours ago, SconnieTransplant said:

My home - in the Keweenaw Peninsula in the UP - isn't even shown on these maps   

I don't think you have to sweat it. Was there ever a year without winter up there?

Iiuc, '98-99 broke the dismal streak of low-snowfall winters for DTW during the '90s. Looking at the next (23) winters, on average we can hit dbl-digit snow depth roughly every 2.3 yrs:

And score a noticeably AN snow fall season approximately every 2.9 years:

Obviously, I left out the last pair of winters that failed to reach either category threshold. They can be put towards the next AN winter lol. What I'd like to think is that based on the averages we might be due a better winter. 

16 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Was doing the Turkey Day Trot in Detroit in '07 and about 1-2 inches fell that day.  It was in Novi but i'm looking at a pic right now of it. 

Yeah, I guess he did say "snow" not snowstorm. My bad. 

1 hour ago, roardog said:

It could be 2008 I’m thinking of that had the thanksgiving Day snow. Without looking it up, I can’t remember which year it was.

Wasn't 07. As for T-day 08 that was on the 27th and there was the storm a few days later that straddled 11/30-12/1 (I was in downtown Chicago where it was mostly RN) which left a decent blanket of snowcover to start the rockin' month of December. Perhaps that's what you remembered. It was Sun/Mon of T-day weekend.

10 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

Cool. I should probably put on the blaze orange before going out to take cloud pic or ride the bike on the rail trail from now on.

In years when there was ample snow by 11/15, I never rode my sleds until after dark. Partly out of courtesy, partly not to piss-off someone holding a high-powered weapon, lol. 

@weatherbo My late cousin had a hunting cottage near L'anse. I never made the trek all the way up there to hunt so I didn't realize it was bucks only up there. Should be open season here in the burbs lol. Last year I had a 10 point and a 6 point run in front of my car just a 1/4 mile from here. Surprising amount of wildlife here in western Wayne County. A lot of waterways and greenways run between endless housing developments. One is on the south side of Plymouth. There's a huge Tom turkey that stakes out his claim to S Main and Ann Arbor Rd in front of a Chrysler dealership. Causes traffic snarls all the time. 

13 hours ago, roardog said:

2004 had a snowstorm here the evening before Thanksgiving. There was even thunder snow with it. I think it was 2007 that also had a snowstorm. 

OMG yes! How did I not remember the 04 early storm. Was only 4-5" in Marshall but there were places up to a foot in SWMI. Another reason 04-05 rocked across SMI. (see my post in the winter thread for more hype). First event I remember in 07-08 was the mid-Dec system. Will have to check out whatever missed me earlier on.

8 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

With wind and a high of 46, most of the snow otg will melt today.  No snow for opening day.  Happens sometimes.

Big dump on NMI 11/5/90 also melted off just in time for a brown opener. 

Let's just do this!