RogueWaves

6 hours ago, Frog Town said:

If my memory serves me correctly, wasn't 2015-16 a Winter where the cold was always two weeks away but ended up staying on the other side of globe all winter??  I also remember a constant modeled SSWE that always threatened but never really materialized.  Am I getting the right Winter??

 

This one is starting to feel a lot like that one...

That almost sounds like 11-12 (which all seasonal outlooks were predicting "worst winter in history" due to prior 4 years of heavy winters). Obviously, the law of averages was against a 5th such winter. As said about 15-16, while it was a pretty mild winter, some of us cashed-in nicely like mby at 116% of average. December was the only truly bad month, but even it featured that strong sleet storm late in the month. 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Flurries and snow showers all day but they melted as fell here. Some heavier squalls dropped anywhere from a coating to a half inch though nearby. Have a bit of snow dust in the cracks now at night, but not enough to call it a tenth. Some northern suburbs had 1 to 2 inches, with 2.2" in White Lake. Flint had 1.5", DTW 0.1"

I'd say 0.3-0.4" here in Canton for the day. Expected only mood flakes, so over-performed. 

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Check out this satirical article from the March 4, 1954 Detroit Free Press. It was published the day after a snowstorm (after a mild winter). Some things never change!

 

The part about CLE was no joke!

I once read old newspaper archives about snowstorms and one article mentioned a strong bomb-storm in 1873 that took a KIND->KAZO track.

It reflects the same dying eastern flank/band that falls apart as it heads south over SEMI like with the Halloween system. Like nature said "let's cue-up a near carbon copy event". Perhaps I'll score the same 2/10ths

NYE and ongoing across the lower lakes.. 

Phantasy storms can happen. Can't they?

8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The infamous Roger Smith triple phaser.

..enters March '93

1 hour ago, Lightning said:

Isn't is crazy how we can remember storms like this.  1978 Blizzard is the same for me.  I was 7 years old and still remember it.  

Back then I had to wait for TV news for any updates. Makes me wonder how today's models would of handled it.  Wonder if todays models would of had 50+" runs with that storm  

Not sure if you were in Genesee Cnty your entire life? If so, you may remember the April '75 storm? That was the biggest storm of my youth (10 at the time) for me personally. Similar to the Dec 2000 bliz, it dumped big fatties for hours then finished with a few hours of bliz conditions and near-zero visibility. At least in eastern Genesee where I was. 18" show-stopper. Too bad it was already spring break so I didn't get any snow days off from school . For Genesee Cnty, I think the only bigger storm would be the Jan '67 bliz with it's nearly 23" total.  

Models stunk even with last Christmas's bomb storm, and that wasn't the mega-merger scenario of '78. First Chicago and SWI were supposed to get rocked by a crippling bliz, then after that went poof, they kept insisting Detroit would get 10" which in reality ended up closer to 4. 

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

On this night back in 1987 things were about to get extremely exciting.  Still remember watching Monday night football as the snow started to fall.  It was the beginning of the infamous Dec 14-15 blizzard that brought 60-90mph winds over parts of IL and WI along with frequent thundersnow.  If I had to relive one of the top 5 blizzards since I've been alive I'd still probably choose this one.  Didn't put out as much snow GHDI but the ferocity was a tad higher for this immediate area.  I was only 10 but still can remember it like it was yesterday.

 

 Winds were awesome, even further east on the "inflow" side. That was one of only 2 storms in my life that delivered snow well east thanks to timely occlusion. In SEMI where I was we went from strong East winds and ripping snow (briefly) to T-storms, back to 4" of heavy wet snow before it was over. Dec 09 bliz was the other one when I lived in SWMI.  

Detroit wx summed-up in a sentence. Thx DTX. 

Quote

Remnant upper level moisture trapped in a stagnant upper level air mass has been in place today across Southeast Michigan..

..and here we go again with the phase-tease. Will this be the "3rd times the charm" storm? If so, I sure hope somehow it can get some cold air pulled in just a bit sooner. Prolly just a fluke run like b4 anyways, lol

DTX

Still, the exact timing of the infusion of cold air and
position of the deformation axis remains uncertain as we sort out
the interaction of the 3 strong upper level waves/troughs
(Missouri/northern Florida/Central Canada).

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Should push 50 in Minneapolis today. Record high for the date is 55 from 1998, we have an outside chance of hitting it.
 

I was just a kid in Chicagoland on 12/14/1998 with no idea what I was in store for a little over two weeks later. 

I was (no longer a kid) living in S. Bend and yeah, one of the all-time classic Midwestern flip-a-switch from mild to wild winter periods in history. Nevermind Chicago and mby with the big bliz. DTW sitting at 24" OTG by 1/13 is as mind-boggling as it gets.

3 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I guess things always seem better when you've hit rock bottom.  

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not sure I buy that yet. much more promising in January and February still, but i'm not sure about Christmas week.

 

Today was actually colder than avg. But ZZZ.

Dec 2015 was a dry weenie roaster from the 1st thru the 17th, then we got 2" and 2 cold days followed by another dry roaster until the SLEET storm on the 28th which was a nice reward for all the suffering. Just shows things can sneak up even in a roast-fest of a December.

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not sure I buy that yet. much more promising in January and February still, but i'm not sure about Christmas week.

 

Today was actually colder than avg. But ZZZ.

It's the dreaded CAD everyone's always harping about

Rumblings of a colder (MJO) and snowier (LR GFSh*t) look from around Christmas and thru the holidays. Less Grinchy anyways.

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

that's the price you pay for hijacking Bastardi's winter forecast

LOL, JB has AN temps across the entire northern tier. But I get it..

On 12/11/2023 at 7:37 PM, Chinook said:

Be glad you are not in Kazakhstan/Russia/Mongolia/China. I think this extremely cold air mass has been developing for 1-2 weeks. Surgut to Omsk had -20F to -40F for their low temps, with high temps nearly the same. It was -30F temperatures in Kazakhstan. Nearly all of the rest of the world (not including Russia) was at or above normal temperatures from Dec 3-9 according to reanalysis plot.

But it's a calm cold. My wife hails from Tomsk (over a bit from Omsk) and she's fine with a quiet -40C/F but can't stand the windy PV blasts we get here in the Midwest. 

12 hours ago, outflow said:

I could deal with a third, fourth, and fifth November or any month for that matter if it came with something interesting instead of the endless zzzzz much of the great lakes area seem to be stuck in.

what? you don't like your 2 days of active wx per season??

Remember, last December we got this. Kinda figures we'd have to pay for it sooner than later.

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

Two years ago today: Mayfield tornado outbreak

back on 12/10/1995, an arctic cold front came through the Great Lakes, along with this mini-polar vortex at 500mb leading the way. The combination of synoptic/lake effect snow events gave Sault Ste Marie 56.5" of snow and the snow depth jumped up by 31". Near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, over 30" of snow happened. As you can see on here, the 850mb temp dropped to -20C with 40 knot winds at Buffalo.

 

 

Remember it well that morning. Thermo was pegged at ZERO with a 30-35 mph wind in your face. For early winter it was miserable in NWMI. And we didn't get the big totals they had called for to add insult to injury. 

Jinxed, lol

On 12/7/2023 at 11:31 AM, Stevo6899 said:

What makes it even worse/funnier is that it doesn't even look like the leading wave is gonna produce any snow for the upper midwest either as even thats turned into a strung out mess. Usually for us in Chicago/detroit, minneapolis and upper midwest gotta get their snow first as they see the colder temps earlier.

fooled u

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

2nd biggest snowstom for Detroit (~19") ..

Biggest was back in the 1880s (in April at that) with ~23"..

 

24.5" per NWS write-up with 12 foot drifts in the city proper. #wildstuff

49 minutes ago, Stebo said:

This is what I am expecting as well, southern piece is too slow northern piece too fast.

2 for 2 on the models flashing the "big phase tease"

10 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Skipped accuweather completely. I started with wright-weather bulletin board then Eastern and Harry’s now defunct board and now this is pretty much all that there is. 

I can remember lurking at USWxforum circa early 2007 and later at Accu. Not sure if Eastern was still going then. If so, I never joined until this platform replaced it.

15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Snowing pretty hard out there now.  Some of the models were showing all rain here but they were wrong.

Surprise in the making?? At least you get the prime darks hours. Like everything so far, midday event on tap over here.