RogueWaves

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z GFS, V3, and Euro all are consistent with strength of SLP, and general snow shield. Heck, V3 keeps flakes flying over mby for 27 hrs courtesy of follow-on LES showers. If not a very deep snow, it certainly would be a winter-like couple days Friday into Saturday considering the calendar dates. I'm intrigued to say the least.

20 hours ago, outflow said:

Two days later and all bombs cancelled. Talk about big swings.....and misses

In hindsight, it's obvious the globals struggled with which wave would get amplified and they each picked one, lol. Now, it may be that none of them go bigly and we end up learning a lesson on model behavior. TWC had all kinds of snow in their forecast and had to promptly pull it just as quickly.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Mild Decembers are the worst.

CFSv2 has begun to re-think it's torch December over the E CONUS, fwiw. As for being "due" here in the S GL's & OHV, I disagree. The past 2 good Dec's balanced the dumpster fires of '14 & '15. I'd say it's more like a balanced ledger going into this one.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, underrated storm.  Really quite amazing geographical coverage of snow for that time of year.  

Speaking of that November 1966 storm, that was the last time Chicago had a 1"+ snow in the first 10 days of November (and it was only 1.5" since they were on the western fringe).  Ironically, there have been a couple bigger October snows since then... in 1967 and 1989.  

Ahh. I see what you meant now. Around here (South central Mich) that Nov '66 storm unloaded 8-13.5" making it a very tall order to de-throne by anything at or earlier in date-stamp. The closest 1st-half player since was 7" on Nov 13-14th of '72. Looking way back, there was a double digit storm (10.5") on Nov 8-9th of 1915.

12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

When you dig into the records you realize how freakin tough it is to even get an inch or two of synoptic snow prior to mid/late November.  Wow...

Making Nov 2-3 1966 freakishly amazing imho. Snow accum's down in Dixie a couple days after Halloween

On 11/3/2018 at 12:46 PM, Jonger said:

I'm heading to the local motorsports store to get ready..... early winter locking in.

It does have that autumn '95 and '00 feel to it. Question is, can we sustain it after it gets here. 95-96 did a decent job of that, but 00-01 blew it's load on December, at which point it was basically over

  pick a day, pick a model, pick a bomb

Bombs galore on models today. Could be the wildest November of my adult lifetime if it comes together.

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Today's system really looks like a classic winter storm just by glancing at reflectivity.  You guys from eastern IL up through southeast MI would have been sitting pretty lol.  Would have been a grueling cutoff near Hoosier.

Not the most dynamic of systems and thus lacking in heavy rain. Nonetheless, it's nice to finally get a decent system tracking thru this region.

4 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Possibly active weather pattern through the first half of November, eh?

Models flashing tons of bomb wanna-be's. Can we get a little arctic connection please?

6 hours ago, Chambana said:

Yeah getting 12”+ is a big deal especially in central Illinois, Indiana, Ohio. Our last 12” snowfall occurred 3/25/13 although the PVB came darn close. Other than that 2/13/07 was about as textbook as you’re going to get around these parts. 

 

Welcome to the Midwest btw. 

Dec '04 just prior to Christmas was a Big Dog down that way. That and the March '08 bliz come to mind. March '15 was a close call for Cinci as well as Dec '12 a nice storm hit down that way.

On 3/29/2018 at 9:08 AM, KokomoWX said:

Question about Holland Tulip Festival...

Vacation has been planned to come for the Tulip Festival.  With what seems like a slow start to spring, anything I should be aware of?  We are going for an early morning photo tour before it opens so we have concerns about the development of the tulips.  

Timing the tulips with the festival is always a dice toss. In recent times, they often bloom before the actual festival but this may be the 1 in 6  yrs when they don't, or even the 1 in 12 yrs that they're late. City of Holland or tourism beaureau has a live web-cam on a sample plot of tulips so you can monitor the progress. Can't change it ofc, but at least you know what to expect. Before the web, it was a real crap shoot to know when to make the trip? Regardless, great city/region and you can't help but have a good time. 

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

I was supposed to get 10-14" and ended up with a trace so there were a lot of busts out there.

Yikes! So sorry for that mega-bust. Thought those were a thing of the past tbh. Tho LES is prolly the most challenging to nail. Hopefully, we'll get something to make up that loss later. Plus, we're all getting in on this decent clipper. - Cheers

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

I got another 0.2" this morning to push my "event total" to 3.1"...knock on wood but I should easily do better with the clipper. 

Will wait for all the reports, but it looks like Geauga County generally only saw 4-8" total, maybe locally more in the extreme north but not widespread.  Cuyahoga County saw from an inch or two along the lake to 4-6" in far southern and also probably 4" or so in some of the hills east of 271.  A nice portion of Medina and western Summit Counties did well with a nice area getting 4-7" there.  In NW PA, it appears about the eastern 1/3 of inland Erie County and extreme NE Crawford County did manage storm totals of 8-14" give or take...Corry did get over a foot...but near I-79 and west as MAIDEsNOW can probably verify, it was very underwhelming.  Must've just been too much dry air even there...really wish we had decent radar in NW PA to see these events play out. 

GRR was also bullish on double digit totals for SWMI but it ended up a nice 4-8" event instead..you're not the only region that suffered that fate

46 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Radar lighting up fast...should be a good night of snow. 

Rip city in SWMI already hit 3" in first 3 hrs. Robust event - storm conditions thru Van Buren Cnty! Winter Wonderland ❄❄

45 minutes ago, Trent said:

CLE recorded its first temperature in the 40s yesterday since May 23rd. Yesterday was also the first day in the past 30 to have a negative temp departure. Today doesn't look to have a negative departure so we will continue to wait to be able to string more than 2 days with a negative temp at CLE, which last happened 100 days ago!

You guys over there just wait. 2012 had to be balanced out and you're gonna get "balanced out" sooner than later as well..