RogueWaves

1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I hope not. Ha. Would love to cash in on back to back significant winter storms. It's been a long time. Getting almost a foot yesterday has me thirsty for more 

Peoria is well north of I-70 and I might have said Liquid/Frozen line vs. SLP to be more precise with my words. At that, you'd be golden. Hope you get the rare back-to-back storms.

2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I agree, I think suppression is a big concern with next weekend.  For points N with the first wave and then points south with the second.  Those are some pretty strong ridges coming back to back down out of Canada.

SLP gets up to at least I-70. That's my call and I'm sticking to it.

31 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The Euro kind of epitomizes what I think could happen with respect to a miss or low end hit locally. The baroclinic zone remains further south and the low rides it east along the river.

Euro needs to eat it's Wheaties and bulk-up, lol.  The snowcover baro-zone effect really plays out later in winter when/if you have a long-standing glacier that is a very cold snowpack, not one recently laid down on recently warm ground. Jan 17 SOHV bliz laid down a massive swath of even deeper snow and it didn't stop the following week's storm from raining up into SEMI.

What this can do imho (current snow cover) is keep WAA from getting out of hand if we indeed see a stronger storm being advertised by most guidance.

28 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This setup reminds me very much of GHD 2015 with perhaps a bit more wind potential.

That gave mby 18"...I like how you think

20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 While I doubt these extreme numbers come to fruition, it's not like it's just one rogue run. The FV3 has been hellbent on outrageous cold in the long range.  Lol if that Matt panned out it would probably be clear and -30ﾟin Columbus and we would be getting Lake effect pixie dust showers here with temperatures around -8ﾟ

Thus see Bastardi's compare with Jan '82 cold waves and that's the exact wx I remember in Genesee Cnty to confirm your call

5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Even the ICON stopped suppressing the storm. Good.

 

ICON's not the "go-to" model of choice if you ask me. Wouldn't worry me if it was out on it's own away from the pack. Hopefully this clocks us both pretty goodly

3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

One would think that the large area of heavy snow put down yesterday and today will have impact on future storm track. I know there will be melting down by I70 but they got a lot of snow to melt. We got areas nearing or exceeding a foot up by I74. Our temps here don't get above 35 this week so not a ton of melting should occur. This leaves a large sw to ne oriented baroclinic zone for next weeks system. Which the storm track on GFS looks remarkably similar to this idea. Just one model though. Would be awesome to see back to back major winter storms only a week apart. This system will have much more wind with it

Getting pumped for the possibilities of next week's system. I think the snow pack laid down's actually a good thing so a stronger system doesn't pump too much warm air ahead of it like we've seen up until the current system.

6 hours ago, Stebo said:

Actually quite a few more duds compared to last night's run, including the control.

GFS = Rainer

GEM = Nice

Euro = South

Maybe they could meet in the middle for a hug

5 hours ago, buckeye said:

lots of good hits for a large part of the sub.   But the axis is i-70.   Probably one of the best 2 week stretch for storm potential in awhile.   At least it's not a tundra signal.

In other words, SMI is left watching from the sidelines, eh?

After all the spring-like wx lately, today's winds were brutal. Picked up 0.8" of LES as a bonus tho.

7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Man 0z nam is really something. Is it on crack or into something? It isn't in it's good range so not sure I believe it's very amped/moisture laden solution. But man this would be awesome. Large area of warning criteria snow

NAM back at the beginning of the snowy November was taking all the other models to wood shed. Then it lost it's rhythm. Be nice if "it's back"

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Well, nobody should be taking that map literally.  About the only conclusion I'd draw is that winter is not over, but I didn't need a 46 day map to tell me that.

And as snowy as that looks over SWMI, 5 yrs ago those amts were the 15 day GFS - and it verified! Several times! Oh the extremes we endure around here..

14 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I'm still waiting to get inside 72.  Except for the big dog in the SE this year model accuracy has sucked outside 3 days, even 2.  Climo wise us folks in the central parts of IL/IN/OH are just now entering our statistical  "winter" when it comes to snow so if this pans out I'll take it as a good sign 

This!

Currently have flurries in my grid. Sigh at 2 storms just north and now a potential sliding just south. Nino's are the worst!

10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Wow lol would he actually say things like that?

9 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Worse

7 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

He's still giving beat downs on FB.

I liked his wxrisk site info/blog back before social media let the cat outta the bag about his dark side. Since that revelation, he's entertaining if you can look past his crassness and see his rants almost like a comedy film actor.

My all-time favorite DT description

1 hour ago, Calderon said:

For What It's Worth

Which isn't much in this winter of non-starts

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That is the first tornado on record (since 1950) to occur in Indiana on New Year's Eve.  Assuming nothing else gets confirmed in another state later on that day, it will also be the first time that the final tornado of the year occurs in Indiana.  As you might expect, the last tornado of the year almost always tends to occur in one of the southern states.

So when a bliz hits the region a month later, you can start some lore regarding winter twisters?

10 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

February was the real torcher that winter.

Referring to '11/'12

My biggest and only true storm that season was 11-29. This year 11-26. I report - you decide

26 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Not even a pos weak Alberta clipper to drop a turd dusting. This winter is rivaling 2011-2012 for now. 

It's truly the ghost of 11-12 I swear

22 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

We will see if this talk of cold in the 3rd week of January pans out. At our northern latitude we do not even necessarily need cold, we just need to avoid torch and get some systems.

By that, you mean systems tracking south of us. Cuz we've had systems. In fact about 3 in a row that tracked right over SMI. We'll never score if that continues, and that's exactly the same thing models have the next two systems doing (8th and 11th). Tough to polish this turd tbh

58 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The reason why is that some saw similarities to 13-14 and automatically assumed that winter was going to be a snow blitz.

I'll admit to buying into the borderline Modoki Nino which allows for some pretty decent analog averages of cold/snow across S Lakes. But so far, this Modoki is misbehaving badly so my analog list is pretty much useless

Had a person say their cottage in Oscoda Cnty got 12" tho the largest official report seemed to be a 10.5" from Suttons Bay. Certainly some unreported lollies may well have happened with the region much less densely populated than SMI

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was horrible. After a good November too. 

Would've been disappointing enough, but that actually made it much worse!

And now we begin a new month/year with this. No surprise d10 snow maps are a total dud

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Snowmobiled during this storm in Cheboygan Michigan. Got snowed in and had to call into work the next morning.

Bet you'd take a repeat of that

9 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Lived in sw lower near Stevensville.  I was 10, but I have pics in a photo album of the drifts.  We were snowed in for a couple days and the snow lasted on the ground the rest of the winter pretty much.  This storm is why I fell in love with snow and weather and essentially ended up here.

joined the forums in 2004... tone deaf in every way.  I remember being teased by Will and Forky

We actually drove home via 94 (was closed west of Kzoo but somehow found a ramp that wasn't blocked). When there were zero other cars for 30 miles we realized we weren't supposed to be out there. Anyways, the State Police were escorting batches of east-bound cars very slowly in groups thru squalls that were dropping vis to about 200 ft at times. Even still, peeps were finding their way into the median ditch somehow. We exited at Benton Harbor to go south on US-31 and only one business was open. Think it was Pizza Hut. Needed the bathroom and some Chicago dude was in there b*tching that everything in Chicago was open as usual and "why was everything closed in Michigan?". Some people. Anyways barely got down to S. Bend as some roads were impassable and the drifting was wild in the countryside. I see that 6.0" report says Eau Claire MI but they had at least 20" late afternoon of the 3rd as we passed near there. Suspect that should be Eau Claire WI or it was a first report and they never updated it with the storm total? I was working in St. Joe during the PV Bliz Jan 6, 2014 and that also hit that region with 24+ inches. Both great storms, tho winds were a lot worse in '99

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Any reports from Northern Michigan?

0930 PM     HEAVY SNOW       2 NNW KEWADIN           44.96N 85.38W
12/31/2018  E9.5 INCH        ANTRIM             MI   PUBLIC

(and they were in the 4-6 zone. Slightly over-performed lol)