RogueWaves

Per the BSR, beastly stuff looms down the road a bit. 

10 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

It is unexpectedly silent in here considering the casually optimistic eastern trends in some of the models this last run...

 

"Yeah lol, that CMC run gives me like 5 inches"

Fighting climo here so it's hard to get too excited. IF the system ends up east, we still fight the warmth shadow of the GLs wrt thermals as seen in the 0z GEM run. It's almost a no win situation this time of year save for the rarity of a N-S mega trough we had with the 11-2/3-1966 storm. Been a couple early birds during Oct (10-19-89 and 10-26-97) that somehow managed to beat climo but the odds are really long.  

27/6z GEFS illustrates this well. Look at that GLs shadow around the Mitt! 

As of last evening's data, Calhoun and Jackson Cnty's led the qpf charge for GRR's CWA. Ceresco is a tiny village about 5 miles west of here. Meanwhile, gusts overnight have topped 40-50 mph. Baro dropped to 993.5mb here about 02:30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
822 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SW CERESCO            42.22N 85.15W
10/26/2019  M1.05 INCH       CALHOUN            MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CERM4 6.9 S BATTLE
            CREEK.

0808 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE SANDSTONE         42.27N 84.47W
10/26/2019  M0.93 INCH       JACKSON            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KJXN JACKSON COUNTY-REYNOLDS
            FIELD AIRPORT.

0755 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE MARSHALL          42.23N 84.95W
10/26/2019  M0.92 INCH       CALHOUN            MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KRMY MARSHALL BROOKS FIELD.

5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Runs have been seemingly trending more and more that the back end might thump Lower Michigan decently

I love RN>>SN thumpers and I'm feeling pretty good that we will have a legit shot. 

/\ OUCH!

UKMET took same path (roughly) as today's storm. While I'd love that personally, it's bucking the current trends..

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Juan might be the last one this late in the season this far west but could be forgetting something.

 

Sandy's track wasn't as far west, but similar effects got into Chicagoland iirc

@ Hoosier

Bingo!

The September 25, 1941 Wind Storm – This was actually the remnants of a Hurricane that had made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast on the 23rd. The storm raced into the Great Lakes region and merged with a cold front, leading to an intense wind storm. Wind gusts up to 75 MPH hammered southeast Michigan for several hours and led to extensive damages. This is the only record of the remnants of a hurricane moving into Michigan and actually producing hurricane force winds.

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Quite a difference on back to back runs this close in

This whole system reminds me of a warm version of Dec 15, 1987. Track seems similar, peaking out about the same region. IF only twas winter..sigh

FUN pattern! What a cure for the wx boredom that was summer around here.. 

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I tell you what... it would've been interesting to entrain a legit hurricane into this.  The system is hauling and it only takes about 12-15 hours to move from the Louisiana coast to IL/IN.  That would not have offered a lot of time to spin down a hurricane wind field, especially those winds aloft.  

Something like this happened back in the 50's. Brought hurricane gusts to downtown Detroit it raced north so fast. Blew windows out of buildings and such. #crazystuff

4 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I truly believe that Winter (13-14') was a once in 50 year event.  I would be amazed to see something like that come together again, in my lifetime.  

I'm sure peeps thought the same after 77-78. Then we got 81-82 just four years later. Can't rule anything out tbh. 

36 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the trend of late had been for the second part to be far stronger correct? 

 

Potentially deeper, but less snow at our lat

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Raw day too.  From possible frost in the morning to that.

Yep, noted the same thing. Cold morning just proceeding the incoming wave. Don't see that every day around these parts. 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low.

There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level.

Was that the 24/12z ICON that showed those gusts at 850?

2 minutes ago, Natester said:

Due to wind, snow or both?

"There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low.

There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level."

Per Hoosier's read on the winds at 850 mixing down in SWMI. I'm too far inland to score much snow as it stands now, so mainly just the winds. 11-17-13 was the snow-less version and the whole town went dark. 

Power grid looks to be a disaster. NOT excited about backside flurries and multi-day power outage scenario - pass! 

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The 12z Euro deepens the system by 15 mb in 6 hours and 27 mb in 12 hours as it is leaving the US and moving into Canada.  How impressive is that rate of deepening?  Well, the 1978 Ohio superbomb deepened 16 mb in 6 hours and 30 mb in 12 hours... but it accomplished that at a farther south latitude from AL to Lake Erie.  A little bit less impressive to do it where the Euro does, but still very impressive nonetheless.

That being said, this is still in model fantasy land and very much subject to change.   

Lots to sort out, but I appreciate the historical comparison/context. As noted, the latitude of the CSB may never be equaled. I mean, lots of storms hit 950mb way up in the Bering Sea for instance. But down where people live?, nasso much. GRR notes 3 systems on tap in their pm AFD including possible winter impacts from next week's. If this is the winter trend, that's gonna be one heck of a busy office.  

23/12z GFS @ 500mb = eye-popping loop for next week's system. 

10-26-97 delivered a hvy 8" in Kzoo. Tree damage was extensive!  This one has low party @ A-L-E-K's place written all over it, so main concern on this side of the lake looks to be more wind and wave damage. NOT a good time to be a WMI lakeshore property owner. 

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I see blue in that band.  A mangled flake watch may become necessary in some areas if trends warrant.

Yep. 1st flake icon of the new season in my grid

On behalf of the lakeshore, glad the Euro was wrong in this case. It will be bad enough as-is!

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Another fall storm system will affect the region over the course of
the next 36 to 48 hours. We finally have some consensus with the
depth of the low, in the 980`s mb`s, over Wisconsin. Yesterday a run
of the ECMWF deterministic had a 975mb low over Wisconsin. Now both
the GFS and ECMWF are in the low 980`s. Still a formidable low by
Great Lakes fall standards. A reason why this will be a bit more
impactful in terms of winds along the lakeshore is that the low in
Wisconsin pinwheels towards us late tonight into Tuesday morning.
this will place the tightest pressure gradient right over Lake
Michigan. See details in the marine section on the Gale Warning and
Lakeshore Flood Warning that are now in place. We may need to
consider a Wind Advisory on the land in the lakeshore counties for
especially on Tuesday. At this point holding off on that, but the
day shift may need to consider it.

TOR warning at the airport in Dallas shortly ago. Apparently confirmed. Not sure of strength/size tho. 

I just like the theme. Systems strengthening in our sub. West and eastward too. That run may be the old GooFuS doing it's thing, but there have been a lot of wound-up storms already, and most, other than the MT and ND bliz's haven't really even had cold air infusion going for them. I think it's a good sign going forward. 

/\  on 2nd thought, maybe things won't even wait til Nov?