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RogueWaves

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Posts posted by RogueWaves

  1. 10 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

    It is unexpectedly silent in here considering the casually optimistic eastern trends in some of the models this last run...

     

    "Yeah lol, that CMC run gives me like 5 inches"

    Fighting climo here so it's hard to get too excited. IF the system ends up east, we still fight the warmth shadow of the GLs wrt thermals as seen in the 0z GEM run. It's almost a no win situation this time of year save for the rarity of a N-S mega trough we had with the 11-2/3-1966 storm. Been a couple early birds during Oct (10-19-89 and 10-26-97) that somehow managed to beat climo but the odds are really long.  

    27/6z GEFS illustrates this well. Look at that GLs shadow around the Mitt! 

     

    20191027 6z GEFS h132 SNdepth.png

  2. As of last evening's data, Calhoun and Jackson Cnty's led the qpf charge for GRR's CWA. Ceresco is a tiny village about 5 miles west of here. Meanwhile, gusts overnight have topped 40-50 mph. Baro dropped to 993.5mb here about 02:30

     

    PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    822 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2019
    
    ..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
    ..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
                ..REMARKS..
    
    0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SW CERESCO            42.22N 85.15W
    10/26/2019  M1.05 INCH       CALHOUN            MI   CO-OP OBSERVER
    
                CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CERM4 6.9 S BATTLE
                CREEK.
    
    0808 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE SANDSTONE         42.27N 84.47W
    10/26/2019  M0.93 INCH       JACKSON            MI   ASOS
    
                ASOS STATION KJXN JACKSON COUNTY-REYNOLDS
                FIELD AIRPORT.
    
    0755 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE MARSHALL          42.23N 84.95W
    10/26/2019  M0.92 INCH       CALHOUN            MI   AWOS
    
                AWOS STATION KRMY MARSHALL BROOKS FIELD.
  3. @ Hoosier

    Bingo!

    The September 25, 1941 Wind Storm – This was actually the remnants of a Hurricane that had made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast on the 23rd. The storm raced into the Great Lakes region and merged with a cold front, leading to an intense wind storm. Wind gusts up to 75 MPH hammered southeast Michigan for several hours and led to extensive damages. This is the only record of the remnants of a hurricane moving into Michigan and actually producing hurricane force winds.

  4. 8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

    I tell you what... it would've been interesting to entrain a legit hurricane into this.  The system is hauling and it only takes about 12-15 hours to move from the Louisiana coast to IL/IN.  That would not have offered a lot of time to spin down a hurricane wind field, especially those winds aloft.  

    Something like this happened back in the 50's. Brought hurricane gusts to downtown Detroit it raced north so fast. Blew windows out of buildings and such. #crazystuff

    • Like 1
  5. 1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

    There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low.

    There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level.

    Was that the 24/12z ICON that showed those gusts at 850?

  6. 2 minutes ago, Natester said:

    Due to wind, snow or both?

    "There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low.

    There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level."

     

    Per Hoosier's read on the winds at 850 mixing down in SWMI. I'm too far inland to score much snow as it stands now, so mainly just the winds. 11-17-13 was the snow-less version and the whole town went dark. 

  7. 4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

    The 12z Euro deepens the system by 15 mb in 6 hours and 27 mb in 12 hours as it is leaving the US and moving into Canada.  How impressive is that rate of deepening?  Well, the 1978 Ohio superbomb deepened 16 mb in 6 hours and 30 mb in 12 hours... but it accomplished that at a farther south latitude from AL to Lake Erie.  A little bit less impressive to do it where the Euro does, but still very impressive nonetheless.

    That being said, this is still in model fantasy land and very much subject to change.   

    Lots to sort out, but I appreciate the historical comparison/context. As noted, the latitude of the CSB may never be equaled. I mean, lots of storms hit 950mb way up in the Bering Sea for instance. But down where people live?, nasso much. GRR notes 3 systems on tap in their pm AFD including possible winter impacts from next week's. If this is the winter trend, that's gonna be one heck of a busy office.  

  8. On behalf of the lakeshore, glad the Euro was wrong in this case. It will be bad enough as-is!

    .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Sunday)
    Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019
    
    Another fall storm system will affect the region over the course of
    the next 36 to 48 hours. We finally have some consensus with the
    depth of the low, in the 980`s mb`s, over Wisconsin. Yesterday a run
    of the ECMWF deterministic had a 975mb low over Wisconsin. Now both
    the GFS and ECMWF are in the low 980`s. Still a formidable low by
    Great Lakes fall standards. A reason why this will be a bit more
    impactful in terms of winds along the lakeshore is that the low in
    Wisconsin pinwheels towards us late tonight into Tuesday morning.
    this will place the tightest pressure gradient right over Lake
    Michigan. See details in the marine section on the Gale Warning and
    Lakeshore Flood Warning that are now in place. We may need to
    consider a Wind Advisory on the land in the lakeshore counties for
    especially on Tuesday. At this point holding off on that, but the
    day shift may need to consider it.
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