RogueWaves

More BS backwards spring on deck here tomorrow

On 4/4/2025 at 3:28 PM, Lightning said:

1988 heat was for MI was end of May to mid-August, the main flow was from the SW.  I.e. it was definitely not as humid and 1995 and 2012.  Yeah 1995 had a major Derechos (July 13).  1995 was the summer I got struck by lightning (indirectly thankfully)!!

All 3 of those hot summers had something special about them and equally memorable for me.

1988 with its 113F heat index in Flint area was for me the worst because I had zero A/C. Not at home (a mobile tin can at the time no less) not at work (top floor of an old building) and not working in the used car I was driving. 1995 was a brief deal since I was in NMI then. The afternoon of the derecho it did hit 100F in Traverse right before, then dropped to a chilly 59F right after. 2012 was rough but I had A/C home/office/car so I faired way better than my lawn which basically half of it was gone afterwards. G-maps street scene used to be from that summer and my front lawn looked horrendous.

On 4/2/2025 at 12:43 PM, Stevo6899 said:

Everyone that lives in Michigan says this on days like today but once summer comes, there's not a better place be than in Michigan, particularly up north out on the lake or out on the links. Unfortunately it only lasts 5 months. 

Came into Harrison last evening to full snow cover and fog. Looked like back in December. I'm not sure weeks of this backwards spring crap is worth it for the handful of perfect low-humidity, sunny and mid-70s days that we get up here between Independence and Labor day. Last year was the earliest, warmest, and longest warm season on record for NMI. It was quite fantastic and nothing like my memories living up here back in 90-97. Warm seasons in SEMI seemed to last forever by comparison. Endless. I figured 7 months were "warm season" (Apr-Oct) downstate. Not always summer hot, but mostly mild with little in the way of serious snow threats. I cannot wait for a new season. Btw, what's this thing called "green-up" I see people posting about? 

My 22 yrs living down along the 94 corridor including 2012 had me dreading July/Aug. If you had to do anything outside you were a ball of sweat inside 10 mins. 2007 had some nasty heat too. I'm also a Michigander native who spent a rather hot summer of 2010 living and working in Ft Worth. I did have working A/C (car, work office, and apt). Limited most of my outside fun to after dark and dressed minimally. It was like being on vacation except my dark blue ride could be so hot by lunch time you'd risk burning your fingers if you weren't careful. That heat was a dry heat summer with prevailing winds off of the deserts of N Mexico. Dry heat = more bearable. Was told they do get humid summers when winds are mostly off the Gulf. 

Love my 4 seasons but this time of year, when winter is trying to end, but spring has yet to really take hold is the worst 4-6 weeks up this way. That part hasn't changed LOL 

12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Cold morning to start April in Michigan. Low was 26F at DTW, but temps near 0F in Marquette with the fresh deep snow.

17F here this morning without so much as a dusting! I want a refund.

Winter. The season that just keeps on giving. 11th headline for snow/ice with a fair risk of power outages. No thanks!

GRR:

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

- Winter Weather Tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for areas north of I-96
tonight through noon on Wednesday for a wintry mix of snow
changing to sleet and freezing rain. Ice accumulations may
approach a quarter inch across parts of Osceola, Clare and
Isabella Counties by late Wednesday morning before temperatures
get above freezing.

Warm advection/isentropic ascent increases this evening with snow
expected to break out after midnight generally north of I-96.
Thermal profiles show that snow will mix with sleet and freezing
rain by daybreak with generally 1 to 3 inches of snow across the
advisory area. Elevated instability during the morning could lead
to some heavier precip rates, with ice pellets and heavy freezing
rain causing travel impacts, primarily across the higher
elevations of Osceola and Clare Counties. We will have to watch
precip trends during the morning for the potential for heavy
freezing rain causing power outages.

Many of my work associates have been on generators since Saturday and some don't expect power restored for weeks. Gaylord's pretty much a disaster zone. Ice sucks.

On 3/9/2025 at 8:33 AM, Baum said:

I'd call  and talk to Tom Skilling. He always took my calls. Fact.

Haha, right. Forgot to mention that while we didn't have TWC circa 82-83 we did get WGN so I got my first exposure to Skilling. Was blown away. Had never seen any weather segment like his, not even close. 

7 hours ago, Powerball said:

For winter, my favorites was the animated heavy snow and thundersnow icons. I do distinctively remember seeing the heavy snow icon in particular a whole 7 days out during the Local On The 8s in the run-up to Jan. 2005....

I also loved their animated icon for Strong T'Storms when severe weather was forecasted...

(to be clear, I'm referring to the 1998 through 2006-period icons)

 

When I think of TWC as cutting edge its way back to the beginning in the early 80's. My parents had cable then, but TWC wasn't part of their package I guess. My Ex's folks had it tho so when I was there during winter months I'd be like binge watching, lol. I remember the excitement of seeing the HEAVY SNOW region (white iirc) over SMI. I had a NOAA Wx radio from late '81 which was my "go-to" since waiting for 6 pm or 11 pm TV met was too long. In the late 80's prior to moving to NMI, I found the NWS wx office phone number in the phone book and I'd call and ask whoever answered if there was any storms looming? They never seemed to mind.

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wow that's crazy. We had a warning but it dropped advisory level snow. I can remember multiple storms in recent years that were advisory but should have been warning. I don't really worry too much about what the NWS decides to issue, I just look at the results lol.

Ofc I want the results over the headline too but you just have to live in one of GRR's non-LES regions to fully appreciate the frustration of getting the same WWA headline others are under when you should easily have a watch/warning for a synoptic event. Then, as you've pointed out they will issue a warning for LES that delivers a few inches. Even more angst involved if it means your only season without a warning in your entire life as I'm facing to date.

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was just a general comment. In years past, there have been a few (certainly not all) who act like it's a competition between Detroit and Chicago and lose their mind when Chicago gets a better storm than Detroit, no matter how many storms Detroit has beat Chicago in. I know you know the repetitive discussions, so I'm not going to rehash them. 

And yes, this is the 2nd straight winter without a 6"+ storm and it pisses me off. It also makes it even more ridiculous to look at the complaining we saw in winters past when we were still getting a few good warning snowstorms every winter. I enjoyed the cold and snowcover this winter, but not having a 6"+ storm again sucked, even tho depth got to 7". I'm a snowcover guy and I don't need a 2 ft storm to be happy, but there's definitely a weather void when the season goes by without one 6" storm.

 

Presuming it holds, would be my first winter anywhere I've lived without a warned storm. Clare County scored 6.5" in the first Feb storm, but we are in GRR's ignorable corner so they never upgraded. Mm

Have had nearly 150% of avg snow for Feb. But, like D & J, lets see how much we can melt away in the final few days of the month. (SMDH)

On 2/20/2025 at 12:26 PM, nvck said:

I definitely haven't, only been to Lake Huron and mostly central/southern Lower. Yeah, lots of math w/ the MET major, after calc 2 comes diff eq/linear algebra, and then calc 3 after that. supposedly calc 2 is the hardest, which I'm really hoping is true.

Like others said, you've not seen the better parts of Michigan. Hopefully you can find a way to make it happen. 

2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Thank you!  I thought you might know.  

Look at Detroit's #1 - 2 footer in April!

On 2/15/2025 at 12:13 PM, nvck said:

Yeah, foot otg is looking very unlikely with the depressing 12z runs. I've not measured, but maybe 6" rn? Again, that's a very rough estimate

Have you taken a drive up in the snowbelts of NMI? Its only about 2 hrs from Mt. P. My co-worker lives outside Kalkaska and says the snows up to his roof line in places. You mentioned not seeing deep snow before.

22 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

earlier this week the "pattern" had changed to a more active one and we were looking at 3 possible snowstorms (Thursday, this weekend and mid week) and even pro mets were talking about the high possibility of 10+ inches here in Chicago from the first 2 storms, we all know it didnt happen for a variety of reasons and the upcoming 3rd snow storm will hit our friends in Kansas and Missouri  (again).  Have you noticed that we NEVER get a good bust in our area (there is no way the mid week KS/MO storm moves north because of a 1050 high pressure).

So basically our 7 days of winter (snow) are done and now we can look forward to dry weather and below zero wind chills at night till it warms up and rains in early March.

 

I scored about 70% of the 23" the 1/31 Euro snowfall map was showing here through the 15th. Considering that was Kuchera ratios, I don't hate my result.

On 2/14/2025 at 3:19 PM, michsnowfreak said:

There is some sparse data and journals and stuff that you can piece together what type of winter it was, but certainly not enough to get accurate or even semi-accurate precip/snow/temp data.

I have studied it when I have spare time (often in the weather "off season" of summer lol) and have a document that I jot notes down, plus theres David Ludlum books that details things. But im nowhere NEAR done studying them. Honestly, it appears that the overall jist of winter over here (Detroit) was very similar to it is now, although a likely colder climate overall. Some winters were harsh and others were not. The 1830s to mid 1850s seemed to be dominated by mild, dry, "open" winters, though with exceptions of course (a HUGE exception being 1842-43). Then the mid 1850s to 1860s seemed to have a lot of harsh winters, tho again, with some exceptions.

Notes of "easy" winters:

1846-47 (wheat crops destroyed due to open winter)
1847-48 (small quantity of snow fell, open winter; wheat damaged)
1849-50 (quite mild and snowless; only 1 day of sleighing as of Jan 28)
1852-53 (open winter, very dry)
1858-59 (crops likely damaged due to open winter)
1859-60 (wheat damaged somewhat due to open winter)
1860-61 (no ice on any river on any account, open winter)

 

Notes of "severe" winters

1842-43 (most severe winter ever known; snowcover nov 17-apr 8)
1854-55 (open winter until deep snow late Jan, then it got the deepest since 1842-43)
1856-57 (houses suffered the rigors of the severe winter)
 

Isn't that 1842-43 winter nuts? Just the snowcover statement alone makes 13-14 look "ok" lol. I know nothing of the depths in 1842-43. Are there any measurement data that you're aware of? (oh, and I figured you'd be going north this winter - hope your trip is great)

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

You might not see an inch. I might not see 1.5

I had a high-end chance of 14, but at least I got my 1    

2 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Truly one of the most difficult storms systems to forecast in recent memory. And the models? Pfft….

 

All risk, no reward.

And the Nina??? Pfft….

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The 18z HRRR may have been too dry, but the trend can't be denied. Even the 18z NAM came in notably drier.

That said, the Detroit area still looks good for 3-6" total. To be fair, that's about what was expected all along before the really amped up runs reared their ugly heads. The big difference is much of the snow will come from the deformation axis and not WAA like originally expected.

NW Trend's the new false flag mode. In the end, a pedestrian SEMI storm - yuck

2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

This looked like something really special for DTW for a few runs, shame it crashed back down 

Dusted out. Called yesterday

8 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Grr not doing a watch, just extended the wwa

Figured. Not really a SWMI system. Needed it over KTOL for that!

11 hours ago, nvck said:

Snows yet to start here, but looking forward to the potential for over a foot of snow OTG when this is all said and done, would easily be the most I can ever remember seeing.

Latest SR models look like a big pile of dog crap for middle of The Mitt. Sandwiched between systems yet again. How much you have on the ground there attm?

5 hours ago, dmc76 said:

I think you gotta back to March 1996 

99 delivered 14" and winds. Can't remember if they went bliz warned or not tbh? Not aware of March '96 at all. 

Just now, Powerball said:

They didn't think the expected snowfall total (1-3") was worth a WAA.

And I think its past rush hour

Currently sitting on a forecasted 9 inches for the weekend, with 14" high-end limit.

2 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

Wonder why no WWA was issued; they've issued ones before for rush hour impacts.

Was wondering the same