wolfie09

Something to follow I guess lol Within 6 days or so..

Looks like no one wanted to report from WNY lol

Just a little breezy here.. Starting to rain as a small line has formed..

Toasty lol Few degrees above the Forecasted high .

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... Strong winds will start abruptly late this afternoon and last into this evening. Peak wind gusts will be 60 to 65 mph. The strong winds will reach the Upper Genesee Valley around 4 p.m., and the western Finger Lakes around 5 p.m., and Lewis County around 6 p.m. Winds of this magnitude can result in power outages and significant property damage. If you must travel be prepared for downed power lines. Always assume downed power lines are live.

..DANGEROUS WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... ...SIGNIFICANT LAKESHORE FLOODING WILL START THIS AFTERNOON... Damaging winds will start abruptly this afternoon and last into this evening. Wind gusts will be widespread and will reach 70 mph at some locations. The very strong winds will reach far western New York including the Buffalo metro area between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Winds of this magnitude can result in extensive power outages and significant property damage, including damage to roofs. If you must travel be prepared for downed power lines and debris on roadways. Always assume downed power lines are live. Falling tees and power lines will create a dangerous environment to be outside in. Seek shelter in a substantial building until the strong winds subside this evening. Also, lake levels will rise rapidly after 3 p.m. resulting in flooding along the Lake Erie and Upper Niagara River shores. Flooding is likely along Route 5 and Hoover Beach in Hamburg, Buffalo Harbor, Canalside, Dunkirk Harbor, and other flood prone locations. Along the Upper Niagara River, flooding is likely to affect Grand Island, Cayuga Island, and beneath the North Grand Island Bridge at the Lasalle Expressway ramps.

The real warmth hasn't made it here yet, still in the mid 40s(46°) while it's 57° in the sizzle and mid 60s in buff.. Forecast high is 60, so I'm sure we'll start warming soon..

A cold front will enter western NY between 18-21z with significant cold air advection and pressure rises immediately behind the frontal passage. A 60-70kt low level jet about 2-3k feet off the surface is forecast to be in place as the cold front moves through western NY late afternoon. Channeling up Lake Erie will promote the highest gusts, from the Lake Erie shoreline into the Niagara Frontier and Lower Genesee Valley. Gusts up to 70 mph are expected. The low-level jet is slightly weaker further south which leads to lesser winds across interior portions of the western Southern Tier. The front will rush eastward into Saturday evening reaching north central NY between 23-02z. Locations northeast of Lake Ontario including Jefferson county and the Saint Lawrence River Valley can see gusts up to 70 mph. The low -level jet will be just as strong behind the front across the western Finger Lakes. Gusts 65 to 70 mph are expected. Another thing to note, a convective line of thunderstorms is possible along the cold front which may increase the threat for stronger winds.

Already received the national grid text lol I lost power on Monday night from 40 mph gusts so the potential for 60-70mph makes me a wee bit nervous on the power front lol I did get a generator this year but it's not currently wired to the house, I could run extensions to it if needed..(Refrigerator, artificial heat etc...)

Looks like the potential for another above average month wrt precipitation.. Last month finished at nearly 6" and 2.5" so far this month, more to come this week, too bad it doesn't translate to AN snow lol

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Significant lakeshore flooding expected. * WHERE...Lake Ontario of Oswego and Jefferson counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...The combination of very strong west to southwest winds and significant wave action will result in lakeshore flooding along the immediate lakeshore, especially in bays, inlets, harbors, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. Some locations that may experience flooding include Sandy Pond, Chaumont Bay, and Black River Bay. Shoreline erosion is also expected.

Wow Rip Demaryius thomas https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32834405/former-denver-broncos-wr-demaryius-thomas-33-found-dead-home-police-say

Past 72 hours according to NOHRSC..

This system has all the hallmarks of a high impact wind event for our region, with a sub-980MB low rapidly deepening as it passes just to our north and west. Strong cold advection and 15MB/6HR pressure rises behind the cold front will support deep post-frontal mixing and efficient downward momentum transfer. There are still some differences in model guidance with respect to winds aloft, with the stronger GFS/ECMWF showing 70 knots at the top of the mixed layer, while the weaker NAM shows 60 knots. Even the weaker NAM solution would support Watch/Warning criteria wind gusts. The strongest winds will occur in a southwest flow regime, maximizing the channeling effect at the northeast end of Lake Erie. Given the above, we have issued a High Wind Watch from Chautauqua County northeast across the Niagara Frontier to Rochester, and also for Jefferson County. These areas are climatologically favored for damaging winds with this low track and wind direction. Peak wind gusts may exceed 65 mph given the magnitude of dynamics coming together with this system. The system is moving very fast, so winds will peak in a 4-6 hour window from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Farther inland, gusts of up to 50 mph are possible from the interior Southern Tier through the western Finger Lakes to Central NY.

Probably won't last much longer but ripping pretty good out right now..

Another converging of winds.. Fulton right now reporting SW winds while Watertown is NW.. Makes sense why some guidance, hrrr, hrdps and rgem are hitting up C Oswego county..

..A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES THIS EVENING... HAZARDS...A band of heavy snow which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than a quarter of a mile. This band of heavy snow is producing extremely heavy snow at the rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...The heavy snow band will impact Interstate 81 between Parish and Adams. The band will move gradually south between 715 PM and 900 PM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... Sandy Island Beach State Park, Stony Point, Pulaski, Adams, Selkirk Shores State Park, Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile Point, Southwick Beach State Park, Adams Center, Richland, New Haven, Mexico, Henderson, Rodman, Orwell, Lorraine, Sandy Creek, Lacona, Altmar and Mannsville. This includes Interstate 81 between exits 35 and 41.

1.5" here on the day, snowing moderately with a temp of 28°..

Starting to see a bit of enhanced precipitation now, some nice size dendrites..