Pretty good discussion from Mt. Holly for the storm later Friday into Saturday.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...The main story for this part of the forecast is the storm system expected for Friday into early Saturday. Guidance continues to hint at a slower system overall, which makes sense given the developing blocking pattern over the North Atlantic. Much of the forecast area may not see any precip until Friday afternoon or even the early evening. Thinking is still that a primary low will track north and east from Texas towards the lower Great Lakes from late day Thursday to late day Friday. A secondary low will then take shape Friday night near or just west of Delmarva with this low then tracking northeast towards Long Island by Saturday morning as it strengthens and takes overas the main low. This is generally not a favorably track for wintry precip for the urban corridor but we still expect there will be some snow and ice with this system farther north towardsthe I-78 and especially the I-80 corridor. Other threats with this system will be strong winds near the coast, potentially getting close to advisory levels, with the increasing threat forcoastal flooding as well (detailed in the coastal flooding section below). Finally, there will be at least some potential for localized freshwater flooding Friday night in any heavier bands of rain that set up. For Friday, with the slower timing, there could even a bit of filtered sunshine in the early morning before clouds thicken andlower by afternoon. Precip will arrive from west to east and could develop as early as around midday over Delmarva before spreading east through the rest of the area during the afternoon. Temperatures will get into the low to mid 40s with mid 30s in the Poconos. Much of the area except our far northerncounties (Carbon and Monroe in PA and Sussex County, NJ) could see precip start as rain before temperatures cool through the late afternoon into the early evening due to evaporational cooling effects. At this point though, continue to think a laterarrival with warmer temperatures should preclude any wintry impacts near the I-95 corridor. Farther north though, any rain should trend towards a wintry mix near the I-78 corridor and especially and north of the I-80 corridor as we get into Friday evening. This will be due to temperatures cooling at the surfaceas warmer air moves in aloft. Friday evening into the overnight is when the heaviest precip with the storm is expected as the secondary low develops and basically tracks right through moving from Delmarva northeast through NJ. This will draw warmer air from the south and southeast near and south of the storm's track. In fact, forecastmodels are indicating there will be a 60+ knot LLJ near 925 mb aiding in moisture transport into the area and also resulting inincreasing winds, especially near the coast where E/SE winds may gust 35 to 45 mph. There may even be some embedded thunder here as well due to elevated convection from the warmer air advecting in aloft. Otherwise, expect rain, heavy at times, Friday night with a wintry mix continuing farther north near/north of I-78 but with this transition zone eventually shifting a bit farther to the north as the low tracks across NewJersey. The precip should eventually wind down west to east by late Friday night or early Saturday. In terms of accumulations, still expecting upwards of 1 to 3 inches of snow/sleet near and north of I-80 with the potential for a tenth to quarter inch of ice accretion over Carbon/Monroe County due to to freezing rain.Snow accumulations should quickly decrease heading farther south of I-80. In terms of rainfall accumulations, the overnightsuite of guidance did increase QPF a bit, with a general 1-1.5 inches of rain expected for the urban corridor, NJ Coastal Plain, and Lehigh Valley. Currently have lesser amounts over Delmarva and far South Jersey, where values range from 0.5-1 inch. Would not be surprised to see some spots get near/over 2 inches of rain, especially from the I-95 corridor on east. Will have to watch for any freshwater flooding issues, especially in urban areas. WPC has most of the area in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Still a lot of factors at play here. While confidence is increasing in totals/impacts, there could be some changes as a shift in development or track of the secondary low could have implications in snow/ice totals. For Saturday, storm exits to the east but there may be some scattered lingering showers around over portions of eastern PA and northern NJ. Otherwise, expect considerable clouds around with highs near 40 over the southern Poconos and NW NJ, around 50 near the urban corridor, and into the 50s farther south/east.Saturday night could feature some snow showers up north as a weak shortwave passes north of the region. Any snow accumulations will be light, less than a half inch. No precipitation is expected for Saturday night south of the I-78 corridor. &&
