Chicago WX

All of the models have this feature. Look at the animations a couple of posts above. 18z Euro is a little different, in that it has the western low going farther north, like the NAM has been showing. Regardless, kinda interesting how they all have a changeover moving from east to west, to varying degrees. 18z HRRR was kinda the first show this. And then the trough feature that Joe pointed out. I've been out of the main show for a couple of days, but it'll be interesting to watch this all unfold.

Turn it up

That's life riding the southern edge of winter storms. Need the buffer zone down by CMI 12-24 hours out, instead of over our heads. Lack of good cold didn't help either. Writing was on the wall a couple of days ago. Better luck next winter.

Toss the RGEM. It was awful with the last storm. Suffers from the same cold/snow bias in marginal systems as other models. I knew it was gonna get cold after this storm, but looked at my p&c and it has 0 for a high on Tuesday. That's gonna suck with no snow on the ground. At least the standing water in the yards will be skate-able.

18z NAM is 0.0" for IKK surrounded on all sides by some accumulation. Perfect. Though honestly, best part is it and the 3k limit the heavy rain to like 0.50-0.75". Can't take much more rainfall around here. River is high. Yards still with standing water from the last deluge. EDIT: Eh, NAM dumps close to an inch of rain in the end.

12z Ukie is pretty far east. Jackpots northern Indiana and SW lower MI. FWIW of course… 12z Canadian models went north/west in their runs.

That’s typical though, right? But nah, my contention is throwing away the snowfall output, particularly for this area. GFS always too “cold”. And when you’re on the very southern edge of depicted snow, well you know how that goes 99% of the time. It’s gonna be a cold heavy rain here with a few flakes at the tail end. Farther north and west, looks good. My thinking for most of NE IL north of I-80 has been 6-10”. Hopefully it overachieves for them.

12z GFS snowiest run yet for MBY. But most definitely, tossing the snow output as far as I can. We will be lucky to see a consolation inch at the very end. Looks good though for I-80 on north.

Wouldn't trust the HRRR or RAP at this range if my life depended on it. Euro and GFS have been very consistent. Take them to the bank. Only thing you're seeing as we get closer in time is a refinement of the details. And a much more realistic outcome, i.e. them shaving the marginal edges with snowfall amounts. You're going to need residence time in the defo snows to get anything good. On the outskirts of that, enjoy white rain. Final call for here is 1.0-1.5". Of rain.

Hate being on the fringes. Knew I wasn't going to be in the main snow swath couple of days ago, but just hoping for some scraps at the tail end. Like, cover the grass tips. I have serious doubts that'll happen, based on prior experience with these marginal pieces of crap. But, one can always hope.

You too Harry. All good here. And yeah, need to keep this east. 0z Ukie has a great track, good thermals, but is a bit stingy with the snowfall considering the former ingredients.

No two storms the same, but the short range meso models (ARW, NSSL, etc) were way too far northwest with the last system at this stage. Current 0z runs of both, for this upcoming storm, have the slp in and near LAF at 48 hours (971mb ARW, 974mb NSSL). Probably meaningless, alas...I'm grasping at straws. Just want a little snow cover before the arctic hounds visit.

Puff, puff, pass

There’s a reason snowfall averages increase the further north you go. Alas, northwest suburbs were crying in the 20-21 and 21-22 winters while we were getting hit good. Sh*t happens…

Troll game still on point. Nice to see. Euro did pretty good with the last storm, 3-4 days out compared to the other guidance. Only problem it has, along with other models, is it’s too generous around the southern/eastern edges of the wintry part of the storm, especially in very marginal air masses. I think I-80 and north in LOT’s CWA stands a good chance at 6-10”. And then obviously up through WI and then MI. IA good for a decent hit of WAA snows. For MBY, it’s a 99% rainer with a few token flakes at the end. Thankfully, this is the final big rainstorm for awhile. I’ll show myself back out the door now…

Sure seems likely.

Little closer look. Nothing too exciting I guess, but thought I'd post.

Pea to marble sized hail here. Lasted about a minute. Quick mover and not much lightning/thunder with it.

Didn't really think about it until now, but today (and yesterday) is the 10 year anniversary of this beauty. Springfield IL broke their all-time record biggest snowfall with 18.5". Had close to a foot in the LAF. A couple of not 100% accurate maps below.

1221 PM SNOW 2 N MENASHA 44.23N 88.44W 03/25/2023 E20.0 INCH WINNEBAGO WI PUBLIC ALMOST 20 INCHES. 1202 PM SNOW E NEENAH 44.18N 88.44W 03/25/2023 M17.5 INCH WINNEBAGO WI TRAINED SPOTTER SNOW AMOUNT SO FAR. LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CITY ABOUT FOUR BLOCKS FROM LAKE WINNEBAGO.

Appleton zone forecast from this morning. To be fair, they were under a WWA at that point for 3-6", but doesn't show up explicitly in the zone text. Regardless, that area has seen 12"+ so far, and it's still S+ there right now. Would love to see a positive bust like that for once. INCLUDING THE CITY OF APPLETON 245 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON... EARLY THIS MORNING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES NEAR 30. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. TODAY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. TONIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

MKE FTW KMKE 251152Z COR 03013G22KT 1/2SM R01L/3000V5500FT SN FG VV004 01/00 A2944 RMK AO2 SLP976 SNINCR 3/5 4/005 P0027 60049 70049 T00060000 10033 20006 55026

Big shift south on the 12z NAM, with respect to N IL snow prospects...farther south snow field. IA, WI, and MI jackpot, as usual. Probably overdone with amounts, but fun to look at I guess.

Just got home and measured 3.5" of concrete. Pretty good for essentially 5 hours of snow. The flake size, winds (though not as crazy as south and east of here), and of course TSSN made it a pretty fun event. Obviously wish it would've lasted much longer, but beggars can't be choosers.