WishingForWarmWeather

Is there a general consensus on about when landfall will be? I just want to make sure I am awake.

Here you go. I don't believe this is an "exact science" per se, but you can read about how they come to their algorithms, etc. http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

I will try to look for the link, but there is a resource that shows the hypothetical max of a hurricane in a general area.

We're up to a 7.0 on Raw T, as well as Adjusted, and even a 6.9 on CI#. It's pretty clear that this is an intensifying hurricane, still, and that there is little to nothing standing in it's way except for an extremely quick and well timed ERC. All thoughts seem to point to the fact that that outer eyewall would take many hours to constrict. I do not think there will be any relief for Puerto Rico, and they are going to have a very strong Cat 5 at landfall.

I agree wholeheartedly. Thank you for your thoughts.

No, not at all. And I didn't mean to say that I didn't understand where you were coming from. It's just nice to see a train of thought, especially for the folks that just read and do not post. They see many different opinions being thrown around, and not many explain why. That's all that I was trying to say. Appreciate your thoughts, thanks.

Agreed. Which is why I think people jumped on that "130 mph" prediction because there wasn't much evidence to support that, and none given to support his thinking. I just personally really respect when an opinion (whether it be popular or not) is backed up with scientific data and or at least the method of which they arrived there, so we can at least all follow along in the thinking process.

Understandable and I get where he's coming from, and you for backing him up. HOWEVER, me personally, I'd really love for those "guesses" to be backed up with their reasoning, data and methodology of coming to that guess. I think that is what people are commenting on in this instance.

I know the Raw T# has been a topic of some drama yesterday, but, I did want to mention that Raw T had been fluctuating and nearly stationary around 6.5-6.7 for hours now, but is back on the rise. It's currently up to 6.9 and climbing steadily.

Don, I really love these. This sort of discussion should become standard, I wish NHC would fully adopt this. I know they've tried here and there to start implementing it but nowhere near to the degree of depth and knowledge and data that you bring. I learn so much from you every day. Thank you.

And this is because it takes a dip under the island which puts them in the RFQ, as well as surge issues from that direction that it came in?

Heartbreaking.

Wow. Incredibly interesting. Thanks so much for sharing.

I am so thankful for the facelift/update we got this year with satellites! It has truly proven to be invaluable. (Not to mention the visuals are absolutely astounding)

Not really. It's extremely useful for RI. Usually I take Final T into considering, but Raw T is very telling under RI situations. But I understand where you're coming from!

Raw T to 7.1. This is insanity.

Up to 6.9 on raw T.

Well, good... that's awesome. When I saw the city of Joplin after the tornado it sent chills down my spine for weeks after, just even to think about it. It looked nearly identical to what NOLA looked like after Katrina, just kind of on a smaller scale. I feel your pain more than you can understand. And yes, any volunteer is simply an angel on earth, no doubt about that. I have nothing but terrible things to say about Fema, but I am very glad you had a much better experience. I did see that story about the dog, I followed the whole story very closely, since it hit so closely to home. (Not only in literal terms-- I am in Norman, OK right now-- but in emotional terms as well).

How has FEMA been handling it in Joplin? I was in New Orleans for Katrina (and many years after) and they handled it absolutely awful. I truly hope you're (and your town) are having a much easier time.