WishingForWarmWeather

Question for anyone who feels like responding - I guess I’m used to ERC from larger eyes, or ERC’s that are more disruptive instead of the meld that happened overnight - but I suppose I was expecting more wind expansion than we see. Would you pontificate that’s more bc of the pinhole to not-pinhole-but-still-really-tiny eye, or bc of the meld, that the explanation was relatively “small” compared to what we’ve seen in the past. Or is this more I am just not fully understanding the dynamics at play here? Or is this bc the storm was already so compact that a near double feels small? Mixture of these things?

Extreme times, extreme measures or something like that.

I have to believe the little oscillations I’m seeing in some of these loops is the precursor to an ERC. Edit to add: who knows at this point. I honestly thought the radar out of Mexico earlier showed the beginning of the band that would start it but that solid inner eye has really held on. I just remember Rita? Or Wilma? One of them. Started oscillating around before the ERC.

IR showing positive temps.

Can’t get over this. Inflow and outflow unreal. Pinhole eye, seeming stadium effect in it. It’s just humbling as hell that this was a teeny weeny baby storm yesterday morning.

unreal.

It’s honestly bewildering and humbling to watch. Watching the eye still rapidly warming even after that pass is…I don’t even have words.

924 extrap. 158 flight level. Lord bless it.

Just in time for that SW/NE pass.

This radar shows the likely future new eye wall forming as well.

Dvorak having an incredibly difficult time keeping up, but raw T is at 7.1.

Please open tweet for his full thread of thoughts.

Ohhhh. No, that’s my fault, I thought it was more a response to me than a piggy back and wanted to make sure i clarified my thoughts.

Yes, that definitely isn’t lost upon me. I guess I was trying to express that the devastation - regardless of level felt or perceived - is so widespread. I definitely didn’t mean it as a competition or anything.

The impacts and devastation are just so widespread. Also I recommend going to that tweet and reading the entire thread. They continue on documenting how bad it was for them.

You’re incredibly welcome. Thank you for the thorough, in-depth, well thought out, knowledgeable, and empathetic response. I’ve learned a lot from you through the years and the trend continues today. I don’t want to go point by point in what you’ve said, but I do want to quickly thank you for bringing up that behavior, comforting that family, and for the way you approach chasing professionally. As someone who went through Katrina in New Orleans it truly means a lot. I also wanted to get your thoughts on something regarding the wind, especially knowing it’s one of your big fascinations. I wanted to ask your thoughts regarding the gusts through Helene’s landfalling life. Why with this particular storm the gusts seemed to really be the bigger story… for example, double the sustained, maybe even triple the sustained or a little higher in some places. Maybe I’m just not remembering well exactly how storms in years past went but it feels like usually the gusts are more in the sustained + 20%ish range. I’m interested in hearing your thoughts as to the sustained -vs- gusts, the seeming over performance of the gusts (or if that’s just in my mind), how far inland those huge gusts went (which is why they seem as though they’re overperforming to me I believe, as the sustained winds were tightly contained). It was a big storm, yes - but was it also the SW/NE jet that influenced all of this? Is this gust:sustained ratio disparity (that maybe I’m making up) something that happens more with later in the season storms rather than the earlier ones? Thanks ahead of time for your thoughts - or for anyone else who would like to chime in! I’m definitely still learning and would love to hear what anyone wants to say/teach me.

Yes exactly. I love that - I guess between him and Andy someone has Google street view or something overlaid and they are calling out local landmarks. You’re right there are so many people that only know their street name and everything else is “turn right after the DQ, 3 streets down make a left after the church next to the school”. It’s me. I’m people. I only function off landmarks so I’m so thankful they do that for people. I also appreciate that it’s just fully aggregated all in one place. If there’s a system spanning 4 states, they’re calling out every single individual severe instance and it really is impressive. Especially when Andy is calling out storms that get missed with the severe warn or tor warn on it. And I appreciate that they have so many resources around, so many boots on ground to go to. I also appreciate that the aftermath is aggregated. I just really appreciate the work they put into it and the untold lives they ultimately save because of it. When I first stumbled across them I was worried it would be sensationalist journalism at its best and I’m so happy to say I was wrong.

You’re the best, friend. Thank you. Yes! I watched all your videos you posted. They were impressive. I was wondering - I saw chatter across the social media world in numerous places of people being “unimpressed” with the wind. Which, we both know, happens every single storm. I know Laura is your benchmark and I remember how rattled you were after. How did this stack up, in your opinion? I know being any closer to the coast itself was impossible due to the location, what’s available for protection, and surge concerns. But do you believe, if it were possible to be closer to “ground zero” than Perry, that the wind and gusts would have been perceived as more impactful? I can’t remember just how far Perry is - but I do know it’s a little bit of distance and many trees in between. Do you think the trees had any effect on the “disparity” (in quotes bc I fully understand we’re never going to get sustained winds matching official numbers) or simply just the distance?

Okay! Testing, testing, 1…2…3…

I honestly think it’s really cool that there are new mediums for solid coverage in severe weather situations. It’s reminiscent to me of growing up and being incredibly obsessed with watching the wall-to-wall coverage on TWC when it used to be good. What Ryan, and more importantly Andy, do for the weather community (and those just interested peripherally or happen to be affected in the moment and need knowledge/help they can trust) is amazing. Just my .02 - I know you were just pointing something out but I had wanted to mention this during the storm and forgot.

Thank you so much for doing that. 007, how did your chase go for one? And for two, can you teach me how to post it like you did so I can do that in the future?

Hi y’all. I can’t figure out how to embed tweets but this is one of the most beautiful hurricane gifs I’ve ever seen. Please do yourself the favor and click on this sentence. It’s a link to a gif of Helene’s post-tropical transition.