HighStakes

I mentioned march 2017 yesterday when things were trending the wrong way with this one. We were expecting a big dump and got a long period of sleet at the height of the storm. We did switch back to snow but that was during the day in march with temps in the low 30's so we only picked up up a couple more inches even though it snowed moderately for most of the day. At least with this storm if we get snow on the backside it will be at night with colder temps. If we can switch back to all snow by 3z then 3-6 is a real possibility.

I liked a couple of things on this run for us. We get down to about 23 early Wednesday morning. That's the coldest since those Euro runs a couple days ago. With clouds moving in and snow breaking out late morning I don't buy that we hit 31-32 by 18z. Hopefully we stay in the 20's. 850's reach 0 and even get a touch above it around 00z so like you said mixing is going to be tough to avoid for a while. The question is for how long. In the March 2017 we were expecting big totals and sleet killed us at the height of the storm. Hopefully we can avoid a prolonged period of sleet and more importantly never change to rain. Once the storm reaches it's max longitude and starts to head out to sea we'll go to straight snow. This Euro run gives us over a half inch of liquid between 6z and 12z Thursday morning. That's the most I've seen during that 6 hour period in quite a few runs. I'd like to see that period continue to get wetter because there shouldn't be any mixing issues by 3z. Even the GFS increased qpf. during this period albeit nowhere near the Euro's amount. My best guess for us as of now is 3-6 before mixing and then say 6-10 on the backside. I'll go in the middle of those totals and say we get a foot. I'm not real convinced we do great up front but that's just a hunch but unlike some here I do like our chances on the second half of the storm. Hopefully precip. comes in hot and heavy. I'll continue to watch how the models handle 850's on the back end for potentially better ratios. If we have any shot at some of those huge totals on previous run we'll need ratios on the backend.

Bob Turk started in 1973 the year I was born. Unreal.

My goodness.

I figured you would of been good for 1-2.

The school is actually around 850ft. The lowest spot in Manchester is 800 ft. My valley ranges from 820 -880ft. My house is 860ft.

I'm scared of heights anyway. I couldnt handle that cliff in PSU's backyard.

I got screwed Lol. Maybe 1.5 tops here and I'm literally right below PSU. In fact you can see the road leading out of my court. This is about the 5th or 6th time since I moved up here that there is such a huge difference between me and the higher spots. 10/29/2011 was the biggest gap. 6.5 here and 8.5 at the higher spots. Other notable events where every foot of elevation mattered were 11/26/2014, 3/30/2014, 12/9/2017. A lot of storms have smaller differences. 12/5/09 was only about .5 difference.

@MillvilleWx You are killing it. Great job on analysis.

About an inch. Good to get on the board.

Heaviest of the day now.

I'm 3 miles sse of there and we have S+.

Christmas 2002.

Snowing good now.

Been mixing here for almost an hour. Having trouble transitioning to all snow. I thought it would flip quicker once the mixing started. Almost all snow now as I type.

GFS has consistently been showing flurries and light snow lingering much of Thursday.

Temps are definitely colder than any model had us. May translate to a degree or two cooler tomorrow. We'll see.

Usually warms a bit when clouds move in.

Most models had us for a low of 39-40.

Need to focus on a running game.

That's rough but not as bad as Baltimorewxguy in Dundalk. He's probably as bad as DCA lol.

What also hurts you is that your on the East side of town.

I sit in a valley here at approximately 860-870ft. My parents live about 1.5 miles south of me on top of a ridge at roughly 1100ft. PSU lives directly behind me on the top of the Doug Hill ridge over 1000 ft. up literally a stones throw away. There's 1 more ridge about 1.5 miles north of my house that gets up as high as 1130ft. Sometimes in marginal ice situations my trees are just wet but I can look up on PSU' s ridge and see the trees are iced over.

That's not too bad for a valley. Much better than the Frederick valley. You are in a good spot.

Elevation?