If we are to believe all the top analogs for this year one wouldn't expect a sustained winter pattern to set in until around the 18th. If we can rival 66,87 and a couple others thrown out which I think is still very much on the table then anything before the 18th is gravy. If we get to that date and it's delayed again then we have a problem.
All the big teleconnections are lining up nicely in about a week. Hopefully they stay on course.