Snowstorms

Nah. The November storm was a nice treat after the many snowless Novembers we had from 2006-2017. I'll take that as a win and well deserved after that hideous run. YYZ is up ~14" for the season which is an amazing start and I hope we can continue that. Almost everyone around us since 2009 has had some sort of record-breaking winter (in a good way). While we keep perpetuating 2007-08 and 2008-09, where many in this sub forum did well on anyways. We deserve a record-breaking winter because neither 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2017-18 were as it was for others. 3/5 futility winters happened since 2006-07 for a broader perspective which is insane. And to make it worse, 2005-06, 2015-16 and 2016-17 are in the top 10 or top 15 as well. So no, I am not ready for Spring. You need to expand your checklist because this ain’t it, chief.

Parts of New England about to get another blizzard. Rinse and repeat. They stay winning.

Warm sfc temps have limited accumulations across Toronto today. Amazing radar returns but surface is too warm for any accumulation even away from the Lake.

He's just having a weenie moment. Must be those LR GFS fantasy maps.

Interesting little set-up tomorrow from Kitchener to Oshawa. Potential for 1-3" (3-8cm) across Toronto tomorrow.

Same story up this way. Only 1981-82, 1984-85 and 1992-93 were above average and the rest were ratters. 80's winters were cold though. Maybe not as a whole winter but there was a lot of cold months.

It is possible if we get a phased storm. Though we haven't seen a true phased storm in years. I believe 2013-14 featured some spread the wealth type events. Only other possibility is having an active storm track where everyone gets a piece of the pie, albeit in different storms.

I meant to say for the entire sub forum.

Without diving into too much detail, both the GEFS and EPS offer some hope after Dec 10th. The current +PNA retrogrades into the EPO region and that offers up our first legitimate cold shot of the season ~Dec 12-14. Would likely feature a rainer around that time frame before things settle into a wintrier pattern thereafter. Eventually due to the background Nina forcing, the ridge makes its way towards the Aleutians/AK which cools most of Canada down as the PV sits overtop. In other words, the current Nino like pattern eventually gives way to a more typical Nina like December around mid-month. There is also increasing chances for Arctic blocking around mid-December as well. I’d say our first winter storm will be ~Dec 15 to Dec 20.

GFS hr 360... yeah.. gimme that right now.

After today its zzzz for the next 10 days.

This airmass sucks. Happened to us with today's storm. Storm tracked just west of the Apps, which in any normal year would be a 12"+ storm, but instead we got rain. Got 3" of back end snow this morning as the LP rotated. Maybe another 1-2” later tonight. Hope there is stronger dynamic cooling with this one for you.

I agree it hasn't been exceptionally wet or anything. This airmass is putrid. Not conductive for any widespread snow or storms. Without any upper-level blocking, the flow is too progressive for any decent storms. Mostly overrunning events so far, except today.

Facts. Although 2013, 2016 and 2017 were pretty legit. Dec 2017 was our coldest Dec since 2000.

It's been active... Today is our third storm or weather event, whatever you want to call it, since Nov 22. Potential for a 4th this weekend but it'll likely end up east of the subforum. STJ is quite active right now, surprisingly for a La Nina, while the polar jet remains suppressed.

00Z GGEM is a good hit for Indiana and Western Ohio.

Now we got the PNA ridge in 2020.

The leading ridge out ahead of the Low sort of becomes a temporary block (like a West Based -NAO) and the upper level ridge kind of becomes one with the massive PNA ridge out west. That's why it stalls out. Very unusual yeah.

I'll take the Euro about 100-150 miles further east.

The entire thing looks like a mess on the GFS esp that vort map.

The Euro did a 500 mile shift in one run. And they say the GFS is bad.

28 day closure. Schools, daycare and liquor stores remain open too. But capacity in the stores open will be reduced to 50% at a time.

Toronto going into a lockdown Mon @12:00am. All gyms, fitness centers, restaurants, bars, hair salons, recreational centers, casinos, convention centers and I believe shopping malls are all closing. Only essential stores like grocery stores and department stores will remain open. All restaurants will be offering curb-side pick up or delivery only, no dine-in. We been averaging >1000 cases a day for a few weeks now. When compared to you guys its nothing obviously but 85% of these 1000+ are in the Toronto area. Hopefully other American cities follow through.

I like the ridge placement on the Euro out west, ideal for our region. Got a half ass block near Newfoundland too which could help funnel some cold air in. Interesting, nonetheless. When Alek is excited, you know it’s real.

The cold October we saw this year was unusual for a Nina. In fact, the upcoming pattern looks more like a Nino than a Nina. When you have such a strong PV parked over Alaska to start December, it usually sticks around for most of the month. Not throwing in the towel for December, I'm just saying the pattern doesn't look great. Yes, I agree we do see earlier snows, in some cases, during November but that means nothing if we go multiple weeks during the heart of winter without any sustained cold/snow. Last winter is a perfect example. I don't like considering snow as a statistic to derive if a winter is warm/cold. Snow is just a byproduct, for lack of a better word, and you just need to be around the freezing mark for it to snow. For some cities just because it’s around the freezing mark, it doesn’t mean it’s below normal. In the last 30 years, we've seen exceptionally warm winters as compared to the preceding 30 years. For example, 1997-2000, 2001-02, 2005-06, etc. 2008-09 finished below average in Toronto but thanks to December and January. Feb/Mar 2009 were not cold by any means even for Detroit. In that regard 2009-10 and 2017-18 both finished near average to slightly below but again thanks to a couple cold stretches. It wasn't sustained which is my point.