Solak

First Hummingbird of 2019 at the feeder today!

FWIW--- Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 16m16 minutes ago The new FV3-GFS is performing better than GFS-operational in general but both systems have had a rough last 10-days. These periods of poor skill are called "drop outs" or more plainly "busts" ECMWF dipped as well but that's relative to its higher level of skill.

Looks pretty dry in the SE for the next week.

Welcome to DST, that time of year when the models runs are an hour different for the next 7+ months

Interesting temperature outlook: NWSCPC‏Verified account @NWSCPC 1m1 minute ago Late March and early April we anticipate increased odds of below-normal temperatures through much of the Great Plains and the Mississippi Valley, while most other parts of the U.S. are favored to be warmer than normal. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ …

Love all the current snow/sleet observations in the mid-long term thread.

RAH late morning update. At the same time, a low amplitude perturbation -- and saturation/ precipitation aloft-- will migrate through the base of an ern CONUS trough, and into the Carolinas overnight-early Tue. The foregoing lower level cloudiness may allow for more of that precipitation aloft, related to the upr perturbation, to reach the surface over SC and srn/sern NC; and we have introduced a larger area of light measurable precipitation from the srn Piedmont to the Sandhills and srn and cntl Coastal Plain for late tonight-early Tue to account for that increasing probability. A marginally above freezing boundary layer will likely cause any snow to melt as it falls, though if rates are high enough for 2-3 hrs, that shallow above freezing could be melted out and allow for a very light dusting to occur primarily along and southeast of a line from Fayetteville to Goldsboro (ie. mainly Sampson Co.). More on this potential this afternoon...

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 15m15 minutes ago 12z NAM-3km showing a period of snow Tuesday morning in interior SE NC. I dont expect any accumulation outside of MAYBE a dusting on elevated surface/grassy areas.

15 hours without a post in the SE Forum is pretty telling... unless everyone is on double secret probation or something.

RAH this afternoon: Our weather gets more interesting as the polar low drifts across S Ontario/S Quebec, with reloading energy plunging down into the Great Lakes region early next week. The surface cold front passage late Sat night into early Sun morning will bring in much colder air and set the stage for potential heavy and perhaps non-liquid precip as it hangs up just to our SE with low pressure tracking along it. Highest pops are most likely to occur late Sun through Mon morning, with passage of the surface low just to our S and SE, beneath a potent upper divergence maximum. It's too early to determine the precise frontal position and low track and how much cold air will get into the area, but models appear to be trending wetter and further N, suggesting that any potential for wintry precip will likely be confined to the NW Piedmont. That said, however, we could still see some light wraparound snow on the backside of the departing low late Mon, perhaps lingering into Mon night or Tue. Will have a chance of rain or snow in the far NW Sun night into Mon for now. Expect temps to be below normal Sun and much below normal (highs in the 40s) Mon and Tue. -GIH

Just saw that too. Here's the NWS memo. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf

RAH this morning: Late week, all major models tend to slide a backdoor cold front through the area initiating CAD type conditions late Thursday into Friday morning as a SFC coastal low begins to develop to our southeast. These features will be worth watching closely, as some sort of wintry mix may be possible assuming a strong enough CAD and a close tracking Miller-A or Miller A/B style pattern sets up. Temps should remain seasonable all week, with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s while lows dip into the 30s/low 40s.

Well, the Daytona 500 is finally over. Now the NASCAR season can begin!

RAH Friday afternoon still hints at the slight possibility of a mix Tuesday night. In general, this pattern will favor high-chance and even likely PoPs during much of the long term period, with QPF estimates of 1-3 inches of rain from Sun through Fri. The best chance for any pause in this wet pattern may be late Monday into early Tuesday as we briefly see some drying in the wake of early Monday's cold fropa. Otherwise, temps should be warm enough this entire period to preclude any P-type concerns other than rain, except for a "very brief" period Tuesday night when forecast soundings over our western Piedmont counties suggest it may be barely cold enough for a "very brief" period of wintry mix with the rain. Of course we'll be evaluating that potential during the coming days, but for now, expecting most if not all rain as p-type during this time.

If you add up all the percentages of rain for the next week, we have like a 740% chance of rain!!!

RAH this afternoon - 2/12/19 Monday looks to be dry as strong continental high pressure moves across the upper Midwest and ridges in from the north with temperatures near normal. This high will slide into a better position for classic/hybrid damming by Tuesday morning as isentropic lift begins and a feed of moisture originating from the Gulf of Mexico advects into the western Piedmont. With the cold air in place, winter P-types could become a problem early Tuesday in the climatologically favored areas. Stay tuned.

That setup above reminds me of some of the great snowstorms/Nor'Easters we used to get on the Outer Banks in the 70's and 80's.

Glenn Burns... going out on a limb! Next weekend into early next week you all need to stay tuned. Big time cold air and snow would be likely. Cannot say where or how much yet. We will not know that until the day before, as always. Right now it looks like the precip moves in first and THEN the cold air. Not ideal conditions for a big snow storm. It’s more like the air gets colder AFTER the big event and then the colder air squeezes out what moisture remains. Time will tell. Too early to be any more specific.

RAH says... A complicated pattern evolves late Friday into Saturday as energy in both the southern and northern streams move across the eastern U.S. while an extension of a strong, cold high pressure system over eastern Canada extends into the region. Confidence on the timing and the extent of moisture is limited but some wintry weather is possible next weekend. For now have introduced slight PoPs with a mention of rain or snow across the climatologically favored locations on Saturday morning.

Happy New Year, gang!

NWSCPC‏Verified account @NWSCPC 6m6 minutes ago The Madden-Julian Oscillation crossing into the Pacific in the next few days is forecast to help flip the Arctic Oscillation to its negative phase, leading to increased chances of cold air outbreaks over the eastern US in today's Weeks 3&4 outlook. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ …

James Spann‏Verified account @spann 1m1 minute ago European ensemble suggests a pattern flip as we get into January that will bring cold air into the eastern half of the U.S…

Looks like one more chance to add to/break more yearly total amounts late week. Still some model divergence in terms of precipitation arrival and accumulation amounts (which looks to once again be in the 1 to 3 inch range), with the ECMWF remaining roughly 12 hours slower compared to the GFS/CMC.

Quite a bit different from the 'standard' GFS for the same time.

Out at the beach... As of 1245 PM Sun...Updated to increase winds later today and esp this evening, as low pres now centered near Charleston races NE and up the NC coast this evening. The low will quickly deepen as it feeds off the warm Gulf Stream waters, with most models indicating 15mb per 12hr pres falls as it exits off the OBX. Have upgraded OBX zones to a high wind warning as could see some gusts to 60 mph this evening. Otherwise, breezy and wet conditions across E NC with large area of stratiform rain continuing to move through the region.