Solak

My CoCoRaHS report for Monday. 'T' 'Twas barely enough to call it a sprinkle. Just a few random raindrops. Emphasis on 'few'.

GFS (18z) is still holding strong on the weekend cooldown. Low to mid 70's at this location.

Heat index already up to 103! 88/79

You can see the Charlotte heat island!

Not a good beach weekend

Seen this a few times already...

Strangest thing right now with a thunderstorm. A continuous roar... not a rumble ... of thunder for almost 6 minutes. It sounded like what a military jet hovering directly overhead might sound like. Not exceptionally loud; just the duration amazed me. Moderate rain falling at the moment.

86/79 sauna around here an hour ago.

Good disco in the Aviation forecast. Convective outflow from earlier this morning has held back shower and thunderstorm development so far, but this will likely change soon. A mid-level disturbance can be seen approaching eastern Tennessee on water vapor and this is forecast to help initiate the next round of showers and thunderstorms this evening. An inland moving sea breeze also will serve as a secondary focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Previous guidance had been hinting at the sea breeze moving inland pretty far, but latest guidance has backed off on this. In general this makes sense. A remnant outflow that pushed offshore stabilized central North Carolina this morning. Continued cloud cover over the coastal plain though has made this area the last to destabilize. Overall this will likely hinder the inward progression of the sea breeze. Due to the above, KINT and KGSO are the most likely sites to observe precipitation today. KRWI and KRDU will likely be in between both forcing areas and therefore will be the least likely to observe precipitation.

Today was supposed to be one of the wetter days of this current stormy period. We're down to a 20% chance of showers/storms now. 86/73 at noon.

grabbed another 0.24" just before sunrise. 0.64" total.

Confused again... New HWO: .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. New forecast: Showers and thunderstorms before 5am, then a slight chance of showers. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds. Low around 74. South wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Picked up about 0.40" from 2 showers this evening.

95/73/105 here at KJNX

I'll gladly take the rain without the severe factor. Dry around these parts.

From RAH this afternoon: Looking into Wednesday night into Thursday, this looks like the period most likely to receive significant rainfall at this point. In fact WPC QPF values for Wednesday and Thursday show a combined 2.5 to 3 inches of rain possible in the eastern half of the forecast area with a sharp gradient of lower values to the northwest. While the confidence in the frontal zone being over the area is high, the higher totals will ultimately depend upon where the shortwaves develop and supply the extra dynamics for enhanced rainfall. With more unsettled conditions in place and cloud cover likely to be greater, expect temperatures for the rest of the period to drop into the mid 80s for afternoon highs.

Another dry cold front. This east Coast trough and recent fronts haven't worked out very well for this location in the past 3 weeks. Just 0.58" since 7/24. Three more dry days forecast before the next monsoon sets in.

For all you Charlotte temperature fans... @wxbrad ·6m Today was a scorcher our 16th high of 95° or higher this year, We only did that 9 times last year.

NOAA increases chance for above-normal hurricane season The end of El Nino could boost Atlantic hurricane activity https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-increases-chance-for-above-normal-hurricane-season

Glad we picked up 0.07" from several sprinkles yesterday. Today's former 30% chance is now gone.

Another "T".

0.00" Saturday. The Sunday 50%, Monday 60% is now 30%/40%. Edit: 50%/60% is back. I think I'll just watch for clouds and stay away from the ever changing forecasts. My sanity is important to me. Edit2: Now it's 20%/40%. Arrrrrrrgh! Go pull some weeds, Tom!!!

Officially a "T" --- there was evidence of few raindrops on the trash can lid this morning. Today's former 70% chance is down to 30%.

Still waiting for this...Delayed or denied? Shower and storm coverage is expected to increase shortly, especially along and east of the boundary, where both surface and mid-level instability remains the highest. 12z or later CAM solutions generally agree with this prospect, featuring a generally east/southeast to west/northwest propagating outflow initiated line of showers and storms sliding into our Coastal Plain counties by 19z/3pm, approaching the US-1 Triangle Corridor by 21z/5pm, and eventually the triad region by 23z/7pm.

Milked out 0.05" yesterday.