Solak

Recon: 953.8mb

Another ERC?

8:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 Location: 33.1°N 75.1°W Moving: NW at 12 mph Min pressure: 956 mb Max sustained: 110 mph

I'm just thankful we're (SE Coast) not staring down the barrel of a 155mph beast like they thought 2 days ago.

crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 42m42 minutes ago Continues to ride north of the 5pm cone. After they adjusted the 5pm cone north because...it was riding north of the 11am cone. Yeah, that's kind of a trend.

Slightly weaker again. 8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 956 mb Max sustained: 115 mph

Meteogram 18z GFS gives Raleigh 8.41" 12z was 4.52"

Latest from NWS Raleigh NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 28m28 minutes ago An overview of the impacts we expect from #Florence across central NC. Impacts from high winds & flash flooding are extreme across the Coastal Plain, lessening the farther NW you go across the region. However, everyone should prepare for at least some impacts to life & property.

A narrow window of opportunity remains during the next 24 hours or so for Florence to strengthen a little when the hurricane passes over the warmer SSTs and deeper warm water/higher upper-ocean heat content associated with the Gulf Stream, and low vertical shear conditions of 5-10 kt will aid in any strengthening process. However, significant strengthening is not anticipated due to Florence's large and expanding inner-core wind field.

5:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 30.9°N 72.5°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 949 mb Max sustained: 120 mph

@RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago The 12z ECMWF brings the eye of #Florence over Cape Fear around 11am Friday.

2:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 30.4°N 71.8°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 948 mb Max sustained: 125 mph

This was in the RAH mid-morning discussion. Latest upr air data over the sern US this morning indicates a developing mid-upr level ridge there is already 10-20 meters stronger than forecast. This strengthening ridge is separated from an even stronger sub-tropical ridge situated several hundred miles n of Bermuda, by a tropopause-level trough axis stretching from about 100 miles east of HSE sswwd to an embedded circulation 200 miles east of JAX, sswd to another circulation centered about 150 miles north of the Yucatan. The presence of both that trough axis, and the developing/expanding ridge over the sern US, will ultimately serve to slow/halt the nwwd progress of powerful Hurricane Florence, particularly by Thu, when the anomalously strong ridge n of Bermuda weakens and drifts swwd.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 29.4°N 70.7°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 943 mb Max sustained: 130 mph

Everything you need to know here. this is this morning's NWS Raleigh briefing. https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf

The NHC doesn't change the track/cone on the intermediate advisories. The only thing different is the 8PM location and winds. New track will come out with the full advisory at 11PM.

From the 5:00PM disco: The 12Z GFS model made a significant shift to the west, the UKMET made a shift to the east, and the ECMWF track has remained basically unchanged through 72 hours. As a result the consensus models have made only minor track shifts to the west. What is noticeable is that all of the global and regional models are indicating that the steering currents will collapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S. coast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through the weekend, which makes the forecast track on days 3-5 quite uncertain.

5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11 Location: 27.5°N 67.1°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 945 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

Very possible scenario.

Wind field is expanding. Hurricane-force winds have expanded outward and now extend up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds have also expanded and now extend outward up to 170 miles (280 km) from the center.

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago 12z GFS rainfall through 8am, Saturday 32 inches just north of Cape Fear #Florence

NWS Newport/Morehead‏Verified account @NWSMoreheadCity 15m15 minutes ago Based on the current track of #Florence, devastating wind gusts well over 100 mph are possible across coastal sections of southern ENC. Florence will be a major hurricane at landfall, it is urgent that you make proper preparations and follow all evacuation orders. #ncwx

Well, it sure is different waking up under a Tropical Storm Watch this far inland. NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 47m47 minutes ago For the first time, NWS Raleigh has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of it's forecast area. Previously, we issued Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings. Now our Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches will match the same products issued at the coast. #ncwx

Hope this gets resolved real soon!!! ational Weather Service RALEIGH NC 730 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 ...NOAA Weather Radio stations off the air... The following NOAA Weather Radio stations serving portions of central North Carolina are currently off the air due to a communications line problem. WWF-60, located at Buck Mountain and serving the southern Piedmont on 162.425 MHZ. WNG-597, located in Ellerbe and serving the southern Piedmont, western Sandhills, and northeastern South Carolina on 162.400 MHZ. WNG-706, located in Garner and serving the eastern Piedmont and central coastal plain on 162.450 MHZ. WXL-59, located in Tarboro and serving the northern and central coastal plain on 162.475 MHZ. WXL-42, located in Greensboro and serving northwest North Carolina and adjacent Virginia counties on 162.400 MHZ. Technicians responsible for repair have been notified and are working to resolve the problem. We regret any inconvenience this may cause.