hooralph

Last week the New York Times wrote about the weather app problem (spitting out raw model output) and yesterday the New Yorker wrote about the Forecaster Wars / influencer garbage on X. Those who know me IRL know I'm actually working on a weather app to cut through that bullshit and give people real guidance. This group isn't the audience though , your friends and family consuming the crap out there are.

OK these caught my attention. If you've never read this New Yorker piece about that quake (and the risk of another one), it's one of the best pieces of non-fiction magazine writing science you will ever read. It won a Pulitzer prize.: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one My first job out of college was working as a Guide at Monticello. I always managed to slip in Jefferson's weather diary and in the winter talked about this storm and the Christmas 1776 storm (he was at Monticello for it while Washington was crossing the Delaware).

Extrapolating the 84 hour NAM to save a storm threat is like rummaging through the medicine cabinet for cough medicine because you are out of alcohol.

The legacy of the Boxing Day storm creates false hope for a miraculous comeback just like the 2004 Sox give fan bases false hope about coming back from 3-0 down and the 2016 Pats from coming back 28-3 in the 4th Quarter.

This is for the best.

WOW

Tons of uncertainty, but pretty sure this is where we want to be 5-6 days out.

Evacuate the South Shore of Mass per this run.

Haven't been out in a few hours but continue to hear sleet pinging the windows here.

Yes. That was at 1:45. 7.2" at 1 PM is very defensible.

Can confirm sleet mixing in on UWS. Measured 8” OTG at 1:45.

Same here in Manhattan now (UWS). Whether it's sleet or not, flakes were bouncing off my coat now.

Me too (Pats fan here) but I have to imagine they would have been forced to postpone. Sending 65K people out into the heavy snow at 7 PM tonight up there would have been a disaster.

Back from a Jebwalk in Riverside. Hard to get a good measurement but was convinced we were at 6” but measured 7” about 10 minutes later in another spot.

Glorious out. This was about 30 minutes ago

we rip

We rip.

Flakes are getting bigger, heavier here on UWS.

On my walk just now I’d say we safely crossed 3” of champagne powder on the UWS. Picking up. 1/4 vis.

Man, that escalated quickly. Enjoy guys. what a day to be in SNE...

Find someone to love and hold on to it like the UKMET and that weird snow hole over NYC.

The NAM is the Aaron Rodgers of models Clearly ready for the exit Was always flawed but racked up some big wins in its career Problematic in ways that distract from its strengths (but fans like it for being "contrarian") People vigorously rooting for it to lose Still capable of some key plays that make it impossible to write off

He must have meant 2” LE / hr at 15:1, which would be 30”/hr and indeed pile up very quickly.