ncjoaquin

I went walking for the last hour and a half. Snow is beautiful. Ground is covered. Roads are snow covered. I'm looking forward to what Met showed on radar.

I live SW of Candler.

I'm behind you guys, but snowing here now!!!

We had some good ones together Don. You being here has to be good luck!!!

It is because Asheville is situated in a valley between 2 mountain ranges. We can get downsloped and models will show it as at lesser precip amount than surrounding areas. While this modeled minimum has validity, it obviously is not always what happens. I have seen many snowstorms where that modeled minimum is shown and Avl and the whole French Broad River valley meets or exceeds the surrounding area in snowfall. Of course, I have seen where this minimum has held true. Asheville has 20 snowstorms historically that have exceeded 10 inches of snow. 65 inches of rain fell at the airport last year. Asheville averages more snow than any non mountain location in the state. It can precipitate here. So, while the minimum may be correct, I have found it prudent to nowcast. There are plenty of models where the minimum is not that extreme. We shall see.

Agreed, and then they can adjust accordingly. I know they can't just blow it out like some weenie on a message board, lol. They have to answer to the public. Just give me and you a few inches, and we will be happy.

I noted that in the mountain thread. They are smart people, but they sure do have a lot of eggs in that one basket.

GSP all in on the NAM. Also believe the precip minimum in the Aville valley. They could be right. Multiple models not showing a significant precip minimum. That minimum is modeled on more precip events than I care to remember. It has also been incorrect many times and Aville and Buncombe has over performed. We shall see. Let's just start with that 1st flake and go from there. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GSP&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

I will do it. I only go a couple times a year, but I will let you know.

Slots. I kept hitting the bonus. I left while I was ahead!

I took a break from model watching and went to the casino. I won a $1000. Let's hope my luck extends to our snow accumulation.

SREF looks better for KAVL. That usually bodes well for the NAM looking better. We shall see.

The only thing that I'm jealous about strongwxnc for is that he can run faster than me!

I don't see a rivalry. Everybody in the mountains would love to see Foothills people get snow. I would be thrilled if WNCSnow gets more than me. He invests a lot in the board, has tried to stay positive, and he deserves it. That said, nobody controls the weather. I'm in the mountains and have had some dustings and 1 one inch snowfall in 3 years. But if you guys get it, or the Raleigh people or Atlanta people get, yay for them!!!

From GSP. I fall in the 3 inch category and would take that in a heartbeat.

A great start. I'll take it.

WSW for many counties: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ053&warncounty=NCC021&firewxzone=NCZ053&local_place1=2 Miles E Enka NC&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=35.5637&lon=-82.6538

The winter storm watch for everybody else!!! https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ053&warncounty=NCC021&firewxzone=NCZ053&local_place1=2 Miles E Enka NC&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=35.5637&lon=-82.6538

I really do feel that models are going to come back around. Actually, the SW mtns have not even really had a bad model run yet. They are definitely money. Also, just an inch of snow at this point would make me happy. So, the bar is pretty low regardless. We still have almost 2 full days until go time. Anything can happen.

2025, party over, oops, out of time. Tonight we're going to party like it's 2009. I've not totally given up yet, but I thought that the song fit.

Winter storm watch for SW counties, N Georgia mountains, and Madison. Buncombe not there... Yet. Still plenty time for all kind of changes https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ052&warncounty=NCC087&firewxzone=NCZ052&local_place1=2 Miles NW Lake Junaluska NC&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=35.5277&lon=-82.9766

I was thinking that was for this weekend,then noticed the date stamp. Some accumulation over most of Buncombe. Hopefully, that is correct.

The old saying used to be that the biggest snows come when the rain lurked close by. We may get to test that. I'll start with an inch of snow and be happy and then get greedy after that.

Wow!!! Beautiful pictures!!!

Pretty good snow showers Candler and Asheville, but nothing on the ground. It is still probably top 5 in the last 3 years.