BullCityWx

In fact, it’s not far off the 12 GEPS

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

@BullCityWx is there anything stopping this storm from amping more vs being suppressed? I get the northern stream interaction but anything up top? 

I mean it is pretty progressive which I would think would limit the latitude it would gain. That being said, I think you’ll end up okay.

There’s only about 500 miles difference between the location of the GEFS TPV location at 144 and the Euros location. On the GEFS, it’s located over far northwestern ND and on the EPS it’s just about over the UP/Arrowhead.

7 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

Euro still looked fine and is a few minor tweaks from a major. Gfs sucks but is on an island compared to the euro, icon, and cmc 

The euro would be the worst winter storm in the Carolinas in a generation. I can’t figure out why people are so down.

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Through 18z today there is no way to sugarcoat the trends from either the ops or the ensembles: they were not in our favor 

If you’re talking about the GFS then you’re not wrong.

As long as the GFSENS hold, I couldnt care less what the OP says. 

Just now, wncsnow said:

Does wxbell have the 18Z Euro?

Yes. 90 hour run with 144 hour mean and control run.

I actually have a video from that storm of blowing pixie dust snow along Gold Hill Road in Fort Mill that if you didnt know I was in Fort Mill, you'd assume I was in Michigan. 

Just now, ILMRoss said:

Generally thinking that the store brand version of this event is that late January event we had in 2014; Raleigh got about 2 inches of pixie dust, Wilmington got 2 inches of sleet.

YES, exactly what I was thinking. I'm also thinking about the SuperCAD storm from...2010 or 2011. 

3 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Not sure I have ever seen Grit post a "Boom"

Well, @burgertime is now a lazy european so we cant count on him.

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Heck I hope most of the 1.5million in the Triangle get in on the sleet more so than the a crushing ice storm.  A nice <.20 ice--to-heavy sleet-to-snow storm would be ok.

I think that's what would actually happen if this scenario occurred. If I was FAY or south, I might be worried. 

12 minutes ago, Wow said:

wow i counted 3 separate waves move across as the arctic high pressed in between 2/11 -13.. the whole point of this is there's a strong signal for a widespread southern snow event

wow indeed is correct, @Wow

So I think it may be overdoing the freezing rain and here's why. 925 temps clearly support sleet from roughly the state line with SC on up to VA. I think, if this solution ended up being what we run with, the people who'd really be nuked would be along I-20 in SC and GA. 
 

Just now, frazdaddy said:

I just sent him a text

He's too worried about getting buried in Amsterdam soon.

1 minute ago, weatherlover said:

Where are you located?

Northwest Durham. 

I think if you dig into the sounding a bit more, it may be more of a sleet than freezing rain event for north of 40. 

Just now, griteater said:

Last night’s run had Conway, SC in sleet at 22 degrees at 1pm Saturday 

Which is a totally normal thing. Better head up to Loris and store up on some chicken bog. 

Just now, frazdaddy said:

That's a lot of freezing rain.

We end with heavy snow at 19 degrees on Saturday Morning.

What a winter storm. WOW.

5 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Euro coming in with a monster storm on Friday...So much cold air to the west and just slowly filters in over the Apps. 

Looks like we're gonna go from freezing rain to snow. we dont usually go in that order. 

5 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Sorry!  My fault.  I made a tee time for Sunday after church when I saw sunny and 54 on yesterday's forecast.  

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Does the Euro have a map for sleet out-put or is that counted in with snowfall?

Yeah, it's available on weatherbell, all three ptypes actually. 

So much for that warm spell this week. We've dropped 15 degrees for the same time period at 18z Wednesday in 24 hours.