BullCityWx

If the GFS was in a dumpster, not even the raccoons would be interested.

21 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

This one makes coffee too.

The good european stuff. 

I think if you're along and N of 85 in the Triangle, we're still in the game for Saturday Night. 

One thing I've noticed in NAM extracted data is a lot of locations are getting down to 32. Little things like that can change the game with this thing.

The EPS location of the TPV has been remarkably steady. 

Honestly, the place I like the most not in the mountains or VA with this is from roughly @burrel2's house to Charlotte. They might have the best timing with regards to temps and precip. 

18 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Hopefully you get something BullCity, I am just on the other side of 85 so it’s definitely a no go.  I m just looking for next weekend.  If that doesn’t happen, I want 70-80 degrees.

Thanks man. I honestly do think it's fairly similar to the last setup, just a warm nose in the back third of the event. 

1 minute ago, Disc said:

It drives a sfc LP to Detroit. That, and it's the long range HRRR. It will begin to become useful this time tomorrow. 

The HRRR at this range with the last event had me getting 7" of snow. I got 2.5".

I dont know if anyone noticed but the 6z EPS has precip in NC as soon as hour 144 with temps across much of the state at or below freezing. 

3 minutes ago, Tealsnowball said:

What gives me pause at the moment is the HRRR.  My question is, what is it seeing or not seeing in comparison to the NAM?  Why does there appear to be so little moisture with the HRRR?

Interesting thing on the HRRR is the places that actually get heavy enough precip, it's snow. 

Warm nose is around the 750mb layer here but it isnt egregious. 

Forecast Sounding Data for 36.02,-79.02
NAM 42 hour valid 06Z 07 Feb 2021

Station: 36.02,-79.02
Latitude:   36.02
Longitude: -79.02
Elevation: 119.83
     Press    Height   Temp    Dewpt     Dir    Spd
M    1000.0      120  -9999.0 -9999.0   -9999  -9999
SFC   998.1      120      0.6     0.1      26      9
S     950.0      530     -1.0    -1.5      51     23
S     900.0      961     -2.3    -3.1      90     26
M     850.0     1414     -2.9    -3.4     125     37
S     800.0     1896     -0.2    -0.4     159     49
S     750.0     2416      0.8     0.6     191     61
M     700.0     2970     -0.0    -0.3     218     70
S     650.0     3561     -3.3    -3.6     234     70
S     600.0     4189     -7.3    -7.7     236     70
S     550.0     4862    -11.9   -12.3     232     77
M     500.0     5585    -16.5   -16.8     226     83
S     450.0     6367    -22.8   -23.7     226     91
M     400.0     7219    -28.9   -37.8     225     99
S     350.0     8164    -34.1   -55.6     224    103
M     300.0     9223    -42.9   -59.6     225    106
M     250.0    10428    -51.4   -65.7     230    110
M     200.0    11849    -58.0   -71.6     239    118
M     150.0    13657    -58.3   -80.9     244    121
M     100.0    16174    -63.9   -87.0     247     73

Look, if you remember the last event, I think it's going to play out very similar except with more snow to the southwest. If you get under a good band, you've got a shot at a decent event. If you dont get under a band, you wont do as well. 

18 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Yep..if precip comes in just a couple of hours earlier too it will make a difference too...which has been the trend.. Although there is a fairly deep dry layer, some precip could reach the surface as early as 9 to 10 am up to 85. 

Dude I've been wondering where you've been!

TSSN also shows up for TDF which also falls to 32 during the height. 

Wow, TSSN showing up on extracted data for Burlington. 

Just now, ILMRoss said:

I woke up and ran the 6z gfs, and my heart sank, but I was revitalized by the euro and it’s ensembles. Can’t stress enough how important it is for euro ens to be on our side. At this range Euro Ens. in terms of reliability is the current day lakers, and the gfs is the current day unranked UNC team. If that makes any sense (I need to phase out all these sports analogies)

The Euro/Euro ENS are the globetrotters. The GFS is the generals. 

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

We really, really suck at snow if we get a 1043 high over Lake Superior with behemoth cold air, and working perfectly in tandem with a coastal Miller A, and end up with ice (Euro run)

Having said that, the Euro was a good run and went in the direction we want to go. Much better than the UKMET 

EPS Mean brings the bulk of the precip thru earlier, on Friday

 

EPS was almost cold enough for snow to be the dominant ptype.

F5 has a new 168 hour UKMET

LOL, the GFS extracted data is nuts for next Saturday. You just don’t see thirteen degrees and snow in this part of the world.

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

This set up is just crazy in general. I’ve never followed anything like it in the last 20 years. If we don’t score it’ll be a travesty.

I can’t think of a single good analog, you’re right. If this thing evolves like the euro showed at 12z, it may be a once in a generation type deal.

1 minute ago, griteater said:

The Canadian CMC brings a 1064mb high into Montana (that will verify!) and suppresses everything into oblivion...it has a light wintry mix right on the Gulf Coast in Houston / New Orleans / Pensacola, then later across S Georgia

I’m more scared of that than I am the earlier GFS solutions.

This run is literally just short of the 12z euro. 

4 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Temps are fine as well,

Yeah, I can deal with snow with temps around 15. 

6 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

What is the GEPS- it’s so hard to keep track of all these models

The Canadian ensembles