BullCityWx

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS looks dam near beautiful next Sat on the happy hour GFS lol

Cant draw it up better.

Control run has a...snowstorm for the entirety of the Carolinas. All of us, down to the GA/SC line by Savannah. 

Doesnt look like much ensemble support for snow as far south as the 12z GFS had it. 

There's at least four different threats on the GEFS. 

Incoming on the para at 210. 

15 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Don’t sleep on the Sunday morning threat. Thermals look good for snow on the gfs/nam for my backyard if the precip shield ticks north 

Yeah, it's basically just the very bottom layer above freezing.

Probably a wet snow sounding for 2/7: 

 

Forecast Sounding Data for 36.02,-78.97
GFS_US 96 hour valid 12Z 07 Feb 2021

Station: 36.02,-78.97
Latitude:   36.02
Longitude: -78.97
Elevation: 128.93
     Press    Height   Temp    Dewpt     Dir    Spd
M    1000.0      129  -9999.0 -9999.0   -9999  -9999
SFC   999.5      129      2.6     2.0     331      2
S     950.0      542      0.3     0.1     306      5
S     900.0      974     -0.9    -1.6     276      8
M     850.0     1432     -0.5    -2.9     253     18
S     800.0     1916     -1.6    -2.4     249     28
S     750.0     2428     -4.0    -4.4     243     32
M     700.0     2969     -6.6    -7.7     238     39
S     650.0     3545     -9.7   -10.6     237     49
S     600.0     4159    -12.9   -13.9     238     63
S     550.0     4817    -17.0   -21.5     232     77
M     500.0     5527    -21.0   -31.3     226     89
S     450.0     6296    -26.8   -37.4     224     97
M     400.0     7135    -31.7   -48.8     224    105
S     350.0     8071    -35.4   -57.9     225    110
M     300.0     9132    -40.8   -61.4     229    112
M     250.0    10349    -49.0   -64.0     232    113
M     200.0    11792    -54.5   -67.3     239    113
M     150.0    13616    -58.8   -76.8     245    104
M     100.0    16124    -63.7   -82.8     252     89

It's snowing at IGX by 7AM next Friday. It then proceeds to snow off and on until the following Tuesday. 

The GFS is so close on Sunday.

What is the first rule of a major pattern change showing up on the models? 
 

it’s almost always too quick. We’ve got a lot of people who didn’t learn the fundamentals. 

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Looks like the Euro folded last night unfortunately 

There's snow in the carolinas on day 7. 

24 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I’ll be a cynic/realist for a moment — feel free to disagree or call me an ass — we have about 15 days in central/eastern NC.

1) We’ve been in an -NAO regime for 45+ days, that won’t last forever; 2) Late Feb is the new mid-March in the 21st century climate; and 3) Sun Angle(.)

Spring cometh despite the weenie protest.

 

I don’t think you’re wrong. It gets tough after Valentine’s Day outside of some anomalously cold events.

Euro control at 18z: 

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

It looks like it's just a matter of the amplitude, location, and orientation of the ridge that goes up into Alaska.  The UKMet has -32 deg F in Iowa at the end of its run at hr144

 

And that for a model with a known warm bias.

GEM Ensembles seem to like Sunday quite a bit

Hey, it's snowing on the south side of CLT

I think north of I-40/I-85 is still very much in the game for this weekend. 

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

???

 

I got nothing.

12 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

26/49 EPS members at Chapel Hill have measurable snow on Sunday. 29/49 at Roxboro. 

An increase of 5 at TDF and 2 at IGX from 0z. 

26/49 EPS members at Chapel Hill have measurable snow on Sunday. 29/49 at Roxboro. 

Just now, griteater said:

GFS Members for Super Bowl weekend...some hits in here

Nice! We went from .2 to 1.6 this run so that’s a big improvement. 

Just now, griteater said:

Super Bowl weekend to Daytona 500 weekend (ha), 2 storm chances during that period, that should be our realistic goal.  Let the chips fall where they may.  Doesn't look as good after that, but the long range modeled default of a SE ridge hasn't really materialized thus far thru winter

There’s been a few Daytona 500 snowstorms. 

GEFS bit hard on the super bowl Sunday event. 1.5” mean for most of the triangle.