Radtechwxman

I have a degree in meteorology. I understand man. I'm talking about it getting stronger the next day or so in the more favorable conditions. If you end up with a stronger storm in the short term, you will likely have it landfall stronger. Yes it has plenty working against it as it nears landfall but a well formed core of a strong hurricane just won't instantly degrade. Yes there will be weakening but with a larger circulation developing as were already seeing. That won't break down as fast as Delta did prior to landfall in Yucatan when the circulation was much smaller. It all depends on what happens while the environment is ripe for intensification

NHC hitting the weakening pretty hard prior to landfall. Based on it's organization tonight, I think it could overachieve current intensity forecasts

Oof. New advisory has Delta down to 85mph. Man model guidance has been all over for this. NHC forecasting a high end cat 2 to low end cat 3 landfall now

Seems like when shear is forecasted it doesn't pan out and when it isn't forecasted it appears. Delta looks very rough now. Cloud tops have remained very cold but inner core is just so sloppy. Can't recall a high end cat 4 ever with no eye visible

This is the ugliest 145mph hurricane I ever laid my eyes on via satellite. Lol. I'm shocked the winds went up. Only in 2020. Despite it being disorganized in the inner core, it still has took advantage of the great environment conditions.

Yea if someone showed me the current IR satellite loop and ask me to guess intensity I definitely wouldn't be saying cat 4. Curious if the pressure has come up more and if the winds are lower. Cloud tops still very cold but organization is poor.

That's a valid point. Not often you see a pressure rise correspond with a decent uptick in winds

140mph now. So obviously still undergoing rapid intensification. Pressure actually came up though which is odd

I'm shocked Jim said that. Pretty ballsy. Time and organization are working against something that low. Shocked how strong it is given overall satellite presentation. The CDO is impressive though. Getting more symmetrical and wrapping and VERY cold cloud tops

My exact thought. I think 140 is too low given current trends

Jesus. This is the craziest RI I seen since Wilma in the Atlantic

THE EYE

Beta looks like a pile of crap on satellite. Shear and dry air are taking its toll. Wonder if Beta can pull a 2020 and shock us all. My bets are no on this one

Marco looks abysmal on satellite right now. I think dry air is taking it's toll. Could also be getting back into stronger shear. I did notice though that models are almost stalling Marco near the LA coast and then slowing drift it west or possibly wsw. This could be due to a weaker storm not tapping into steering currents higher up. Almost gets stuck between the two ridges. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Marco isn't a hurricane anymore

You can tell that shear must have temporarily backed off because the CDO just exploded to the west

Couldn't have said it better myself. Excellent analysis

Marco is definitely going to struggle. Good slab of dry air to it's nw and the shear which is backing off a bit however will ramp up again as it approaches shore. These small tropical systems are so temperamental. They can easily rapidly intensify but also equally rapidly weaken. I think we may see it hit minimal hurricane status like NHC is forecasting. Some hot towers attempting but nothing has been sustained too long.

Seems like after the middle of next week most models push the ridge to the Midwest and it is still pretty stout. I do like the big trough digging into the west and the ridge to the east causes very slow movement of that trough and likely multiple days of severe potential. What I don't like and something that could change is how the upper level winds really back as they get squashed against the ridge. Would prefer to see the ridge a little more east and a bit less amplified

I don't blame Thompson. That was a terrible outlook by Broyles. This is how it should have looked last night. Mentioned potential upgrade to in further outlooks

Yea he is being very conservative which is unlike him. Tornadoes were definitely worth mentioning. Slight risk areas should be bigger to especially up north

Storm mode is my main concern. Looks like things could grow upscale fast with strong forcing and high instability. I haven't looked to see how strong the capping is

Very well said. Pretty abnormal to see upper levels winds like that this south in late June. The instability/shear combo is impressive esp in southern KS on Sun. But the strong forcing makes me think you could see a lot of storms fire and get messy quick. But man if anything can stay discrete it will be tornadofest. OFB Sat in OK could get interesting

Right. I'm shocked. I can't chase but still like discussing the threat

This thread is anomalously quiet for the weekend severe potential

I just figured it out. My apologies. Was kinda confusing at first. I'm new to the site. But it has a bar up top showing the progress and shows the run at the bottom. I swear I'm not an idiot. Just had a blonde moment. Lol